Explained | Why Wall Street had its best week since June
Summary
Wall Street is, essentially, cheering for signs that the US economy is, finally, slowing down.
US stock markets just closed their week with sharp gains after the latest official data showed that unemployment in the world’s biggest economy hit the highest point in more than a year.
For the S&P 500, this was the best week since June. Wall Street is, essentially, cheering for signs that the US economy is, finally, slowing down.
Wall Street index | Gains for the week ended Sep 1, 2023 |
Dow Jones | 1.4% |
Nasdaq | 3.3% |
S&P 500 | 2.5% |
The US has been gripped by debilitating inflation since a few months after the pandemic. The Federal Reserve has been trying to tame it with interest rate hikes but the needle didn’t move significantly, until, it seems, now.
Consumer price inflation in the US was at 4.3 percent in July 2023, down from the peak of 5.4 percent in February 2022 but far, far away from the two percent mark US Federal Reserve has been aiming for. In the meantime, US interest rates are at their highest in 22 years, making lives tougher for both individual borrowers as well as businesses.
One of the reasons being cited for the sticky inflation is that there are more jobs in the US than there are people looking for them. And, that trend continued in August. The 187,000 jobs added in the US economy last month was more than what the market had expected.
However, the steady rise in wages, while at 4.3%, was just a tad bit softer than what the analysts had estimated. The market seemed to take this as an indication that the pricing pressure on businesses may be starting to ease.
If these numbers, the growth in jobs and wages in America, were any higher than what came through for the month of August, it would have been a sign that Jerome Powell, the chief of the American central bank, may have to hike interest rates further amidst a cost of living crisis.
Now, after the latest data, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed traders expect a 93% chance of that interest rates in the US may remain unchanged when the Fed officials for a review on September 19 and 20.
Earlier on August 21, Robert Sockin of Citi and Steven Englander, from Standard Chartered Bank, predicted that the US Fed may leave interest rates unchanged in the upcoming review. At he same time, the two experts emphasised the point that the US economy will have to live with high interest rates for much longer time. Watch the following interview to understand why.
But not everyone thinks that the trend of rising interest rates in the US is over. “Even though trends in inflation are moving the right direction and a broader view of the employment market would indicate wage pressures should abate, overall economic growth is above trend and inflation remains well above the Fed’s recently confirmed 2% target,” Steve Wyett, chief investment strategist at BOK Financial, told CNBC on September 1.
Why is this data important for Indian investors?
Rising interest rates in America make the US dollar more attractive and, therefore, the rupee weaker. If the rupee-dollar exchange rate weakens, it makes imports more expensive and India is a net importer of some crucial items like crude oil.
If it costs more dollars to bring crude oil into India, it will make everything else more expensive because the fuel needed to transport everything from crops to consumer goods will get dearer. India, too, is faced with biting inflation. The latest data for July showed that prices have gone beyond the tolerance level set by the Reserve Bank of India.
If this trend continues, the RBI too will have to get back to hiking rates — it’s on pause right now — and that would increase borrowing costs for businesses in India. All else remaining equal, it’s reasonable to expect some of the Wall Street cheer to reflect on the Sensex and Nifty 50 (India’s benchmark indices for stocks) when the markets reopen for trade on Monday (September 4).
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