Tag: Citi

Citi upgrades India to “overweight” citing stable earnings, economic growth

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Citigroup analysts upgraded India to “overweight” from “neutral” in their emerging markets allocation on Friday, citing strong earnings and economic growth momentum.

The brokerage expects India’s blue-chip NSE Nifty 50 index to rise 7% between now and the end of the current financial year ending March 2025, setting a target of 23,900.

The Nifty 50 closed at 22,055.20 on Friday. The benchmark has underperformed the MSCI Emerging Market Index in 2024 so far.

Citi’s view is underpinned by the expectation that India’s economy – the fastest growing among major peers – will remain strong, growing at 6.8% in the current fiscal.

The brokerage’s estimates imply an earnings CAGR of 13% for FY24-FY26, with the trajectory broadly stable, Surendra Goyal, managing director and head of Indian research at Citigroup, said in a note on Friday, while also attributing the India upgrade to sustained economic growth.

It also attributed India’s one-year forward price-to-earnings (P/E) of 20x, which is slightly higher than the long-term averages, to a stable earnings trajectory.

Also Read: India’s forex reserves jump $3.66 billion to $641.59 billion

The brokerage remains “overweight” on India’s banks, insurers, public sector enterprises, autos and capital goods companies among others. It recommends “underweight” on information technology firms, metals, consumer durables and discretionary as well as paint companies.

Citi downgraded China to “neutral” from “overweight”, saying the recent rally in its stock markets occurred despite weakening fundamentals.

Foreign portfolio investors have sold Indian shares since the beginning of April, aggregating to about 191 billion rupees ($2.29 billion).

China’s markets, however, have benefitted from a rising share of foreign inflows, helped by valuations that are relatively cheaper than India’s.

Citi’s downgrade of China is in contrast to the actions of global brokerage Jefferies, which raised China’s weighting in its Asia Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio.

Citi reiterated its “overweight” rating on Taiwan and Korea, maintaining “underweight” on Latin American countries.

Also Read: UK recession ends with strongest growth since lockdown’s end

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Citi forecasts India advantage, resilient global economy, and trims US rate cut predictions

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Citi anticipates a robust global economy and adjusts its earlier projection of three rate cuts for the US this year to one or two, citing disappointing inflation figures in the first quarter. Additionally, Citi highlights India’s advantageous position in rebalancing alongside China.

In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Nathan Sheets, Global Chief Economist at Citi, said that the geopolitical realities and the tensions between the United States and China are a major headwind to the Chinese economy going forward.

“So, looking at a 10-year trajectory and a 10-year horizon, I like the outlook for India a lot better than I liked the outlook for China,” he added.

Expanding on the topic of the US Federal Reserve rate cut, Sheets remarked that there has been a shift from considering the possibility of three cuts during the latter half of the year to a current debate centred more around the likelihood of one to two cuts. He said, “I am still hopeful that maybe we can get the 2 instead of the 1, but we have got to see better inflation performance than we saw during the first quarter. And the US Fed is going to have to keep rates where they are for a while longer.”

Also Read | US Federal Reserve holds steady on interest rates, signals potential future cuts

He remarked that sentiments among global investors regarding the Indian equity market are remarkably positive, noting it as the most optimistic he has witnessed throughout his career. Much of this positivity, he attributed, stems from concerns about the geopolitical dynamics between the United States and China. Many money managers and corporations, he observed, are contemplating diversification away from China, thus viewing India favourably as a beneficiary in this rebalancing process.

Also Read | Adani Enterprises remains a great way to play the India theme, says this foreign analyst

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

Catch all the latest updates from the stock market here

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Citi predicts up to five rate cuts from the US Fed this year

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Robert Sockin, global economist at Citi, expects the US Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points five times this year, starting in June.

“This is predicated on the economy slowing down meaningfully in the middle of this year. If that happens, it gives the Fed reason to keep cutting. So that is where our base case of five cuts comes in this year,” Sockin said in a conversation with CNBC-TV18.

However, if the economy remains strong and inflation decreases gradually, it is probable that the Fed will go with only three or possibly two rate cuts.

Also Read | Experts anticipate RBI to keep interest rates unchanged in April

He is confident that the Fed will initiate rate easing measures if US inflation falls below 3%.

Also Read | Peter Cardillo of Spartan Cap explains why the US Fed might lower interest rates twice this year

US prices increased moderately in February and the cost of services outside housing slowed considerably, keeping a June interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve on the table.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% last month, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday.

Data for January was revised higher to show the PCE price index climbing 0.4% instead of 0.3% as previously reported.

In the 12 months through February, PCE inflation advanced 2.5% after increasing 2.4% in January. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PCE price index gaining 0.4% on the month and rising 2.5% year-on-year

Price pressures are subsiding, though the pace has slowed from the first half of last year.

Sharing his views on India, Sockin said, he is constructive on the country and on emerging markets, in general.

“if we are seeing global manufacturing improve on a durable basis and if global trade starts to improve then that would be another very positive aspect for the Indian outlook,” he noted.

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

India to benefit from shifting manufacturing base but China won’t give up without a fight: Citi economist

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Citi’s Chief EM Economist, Johanna Chua believes India’s impressive economic growth trajectory has caught the attention of investors seeking new opportunities.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, from the sidelines of Citi’s 2024 Investor Conference Chua highlighted the growing optimism toward India as a promising manufacturing alternative. She pointed out that India has had a lot of positive momentum from previous reforms, like the production linked incentive (PLI) schemes, and a lot of improvement in infrastructure.

“India has had its own domestic reforms happening at a time when the world is also looking for alternatives of China, China plus one…The nice thing about India is also there’s a lot of large domestic market, and that makes it more attractive for companies also to go into India,” Chua said.

However, she noted that it will be important to monitor if India will be as open to imports of parts to make to enable seamless manufacturing system, because India also wants to develop its own domestic supply chain.

Contrastingly, China faces structural challenges hindering its previous growth patterns, notably in real estate, which is expected to undergo a prolonged recovery period. Additionally, geopolitical tensions persist, impacting China’s growth outlook.

But Chua believes China is still very competitive and is not going to give up its dominance in global manufacturing without a fight.

“China is still very competitive and we can see that in across a broad array of goods. So that does pose a little bit of competition. But for now, especially for India’s domestic market, there’s a lot of long runway to go. So I think we are very optimistic that this manufacturing story can continue.”

Read Here | Investors are optimistic but exercising caution due to recent outperformance of market: Citi

Vietnam, another emerging manufacturing hub, Chua noted, faces challenges due to its reliance on China’s supply chain ecosystem and its smaller domestic market compared to India.

On March 12, Jane Fraser, the CEO of Citigroup also talked about how India is currently shining on the global stage and has a unique chance to stand out.

Also Read | India’s retail inflation at 5.09% in February, remains within the RBI tolerance band for sixth straight month

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Inflation data signals US Fed pause in March, expect mid-year rate cut: Citi

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Nathan Sheets, Global Chief Economist at Citi, predicts the first interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve around mid-year, followed by more cuts later.

“The data that we got on inflation will give the Fed pause. But it does not change the basic narrative and we continue to expect as do the markets and many others that the Fed is going to cut in the middle of the year, and there will likely be a couple of rate cuts, even beyond that,” Sheets told CNBC-TV18.

It is widely anticipated that the Fed will hold interest rates steady for a fifth straight time at its next meeting on March 19-20.

Much of the focus by investors will now be on any changes to the Federal Open Market Committee’s quarterly forecasts for rates, including tweaks due to fresh employment and inflation figures.

According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.2% compared to the same month last year, mostly in line with expectations. The month-on-month increase was 0.4%. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI also rose by 0.4% from the previous month and showed a year-on-year increase of 3.8%.

Also Read | US inflation up again in February in latest sign that price pressures remain elevated

During congressional testimony last week, US Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that the central bank is nearing a decision to lower interest rates. However, Fed officials recently stated that they required “greater confidence” that inflation was consistently declining towards their 2% target level.

Several of the Fed’s policymakers have said they believe prices will keep declining. One reason, they suggested, is that consumers are increasingly pushing back against higher prices by seeking out cheaper alternatives.

Also Read | What experts expect from the US Fed’s March policy meeting

Most economists expect the Fed’s first rate cut to occur in June, though May is also possible. When the Fed cuts its benchmark rate, over time it reduces borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, credit cards and business loans.

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

Catch the latest stock market updates with CNBCTV18.com’s blog

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Nuvama and HDFC AMC shares fall as CITI initiates pair trade on stocks with mixed views

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Global brokerage CITI expects HDFC Asset Management Company to post higher-than-expected divergence in asset and revenue growth sequentially but sees a brighter side for Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.

Initiating pair trade on two asset management companies, CITI assigned an ‘overweight’ (OW) rating to Nuvama on the back of new momentum in fundraise and improving cost efficiencies.

On the other hand, the global brokerage assigned an Underweight (UW) rating to HDFC AMC due to lower-than-expected revenue and asset growth estimates.

In pair trade, an investor takes a long position in one stock and a short position on the other as the two stocks typically move in correlation.

Shares of both HDFC AMC and Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd declined up to 3% on Tuesday. HDFC AMC shares touched a low of ₹3,665.50 on BSE, down by 2.7% from the previous close. Nuvama shares dropped 1.3% to hit a low of ₹3,922.55 apiece on BSE at 11.16 am.

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CITI in a report said that it sees higher-than-expected divergence in quarter-on-quarter revenue and Assets Under Management (AUM) growth for HDFC AMC owing to AUM slab changes since November 2023.

Additionally, the full impact of cost absorption owing to employee base and franchise expansion will likely be seen in the first half of calendar year 2024, CITI said.

On the flip side, Nuvama’s capital markets business will likely benefit from market tailwinds, the brokerage said.

“Robust flows in UHNI/HNI wealth management on the back of currently elevated monetization events, momentum in new fundraise in AMC and improving cost efficiencies in wealth management will likely support earnings,” the report mentioned.

“Nuvama’s steep 45% valuation discount to HDFC AMC remains unwarranted; expect convergence going ahead,” the CITI report added.

Catch the latest market updates with CNBC-TV18.com’s blog 

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

CITI recommends ‘buy’ for Bank of Baroda but ‘sell’ for SBI and PNB — here’s why

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Brokerage firm CITI, while offering insights and recommendations on public sector undertaking (PSU) banks, has given a ‘buy’ rating to Bank of Baroda (BoB) with a target price (TP) of ₹290. But it rated State Bank of India (SBI) and Punjab National Bank (PNB) with a ‘Sell’ recommendation with target price of ₹600 and ₹83 respectively.

The brokerage suggests that while the overall growth in PSU banks has revived, they still lag behind the industry average.

In the PSU segment,  Loan-to-Deposit Ratios (LDRs) have expanded by 8-12 percentage points to reach 73-80%.

The Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPAs) and slippages have shown significant improvement, more than halving.

Credit cost has been reported at less than 2%, indicating a positive trend in asset quality.

Despite the improvements, the Net Interest Margins (NIMs) remain modest.

However, there is a noteworthy achievement in the Return on Assets (RoA) trajectory, breaching the 1% mark for most PSU banks, except for Punjab National Bank (PNB) and Bank of India (BOI),  Citi said.

The report highlights that the yield improvement has outpaced the rise in deposit costs, contributing to the positive performance of the PSU banks covered in the analysis.

This comes at a time when equity shares of PSU banks have seen a sharp outperformance, with the Nifty PSU Bank Index alone has delivered around 162% returns since March 2022.

According to Motilal Oswal Securities, with robust balance sheet liquidity, PSU banks are well-positioned for healthy growth and resilient margins.

Capital raised from the market positions them for potential gains in corporate demand post general elections, supporting sustained performance and sector re-rating in a conducive macro-environment, said another brokerage — Motilal Oswal.

At the time of writing this report, Bank of Baroda shares were trading marginally lower at ₹260.75 apiece on the BSE.

On the other hand, SBI and PNB shares were trading marginally lower at ₹741.75 and ₹120 on the BSE respectively.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

A mid-year recession in the US may be good for stocks — here’s why

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Robert Sockin, a Global Economist at CITI, told CNBC-TV18 that CITI predicts there will be five cuts in US interest rates this year, each being 25 basis points, starting in June.

Rate cuts are important for equity markets worldwide, more so in India, where the stake of foreign portfolio investors has fallen below that of domestic mutual funds and retail investors for the first time. Indian traders would welcome the dollars returning to Dalal Street.

The first of five cuts projected by CITI will be in June 2024 because the US Federal Reserve expects a mid-year recession in the world’s largest economy, prompting more rate cuts later to revive the economy, according to Sockin.

However, many others like the Deutsche Bank don’t expect a recession this year. If the recession-denier are right, it may take longer for the US inflation to return to the Fed’s target level of 2%. That’s bad news for global equity markets.

Also Read | Ed Yardeni expects first Fed rate cut in second half of the year, lists preferred US indices

“It may be more stubborn in certain components than expected and even if you are getting growth that’s continuing at a moderate pace, in that environment of a soft landing, the Fed is likely to cut rates even more cautiously, maybe even something like the three times that they signalled in their Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) forecast,” he added.

Also Read | Jerome Powell says Fed likely to wait beyond March to cut rates

On February 13, the US Labor Department data showed a 0.3% increase in consumer price index from December to January, faster than 0.2% rise a month earlier.

The January 2024 price rise in the US was 3.1% compared to a year earlier. The Federal Reserve’s target is 2%.

A stubbornly high inflation is bad for President Joe Biden who will seek voters’ assent for a second straight term in office later this year.

Why traders in India should care for US inflation and interest rates? 

When the American central bank cuts interest rates, the move releases more money into the market, some of which would find its way into risky bets like stocks.

Lending rates would also fall following the rate cuts in the US, bringing costs down for businesses and propping up both profits and, as a result, stock prices.

US interest rates also affect bond yields in the US and elsewhere. When interest rates are about to fall, the yields will typically start to soften, making other asset classes like stocks more attractive for investors seeking higher returns.

However, stock market traders start pricing the impact of such rates before they happen.

How the impending rate cuts by the US Fed may affect India?

Like the US, the Reserve Bank of India is also waiting for inflation to cool off to its target level of 4%. However, as it seems to be, RBI’s projections show that retail inflation in India may remain well above 4% through the rest of 2024.

But if there’s a recession in the US and prices for key global commodities start declining, it may help ease the pinch in India, too. And if inflation in India is back to manageable levels, it may prompt the RBI to bring the benchmark repo rate down.

But many believe Governor Shaktikanta Das will wait for Jerome Powell to act first. “The swift turn of tone and action pivots of the RBI in the last two years have been influenced purely by global narrative. We do not see RBI preceding the Fed (US Federal Reserve) in rate cuts,” said Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist at Emkay Global, after the latest monetary policy  review by the RBI where the Indian central bank left interest rates unchanged for the sixth time in a row.

In summary, while many other factors are at play, falling interest, in theory, rates boost stock prices. Those ahead of the curve will start investing before the tide turns.

When will interest rates turn? Sooner, if there’s a recession in the US. Later, if there isn’t one.

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

Catch all the latest updates from the stock market here

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Citigroup lays off more managers as CEO Fraser addresses managing directors

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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 Citigroup opens new tab CEO Jane Fraser held a conference call on Thursday with managing directors to discuss the bank’s sweeping overhaul, according to two sources familiar with the situation, as it eliminated more leadership roles this week.

In separate conversations, managers in markets, risk and investment banking were informed they were being let go as part of the reorganization, according to the sources and two others familiar with the process who declined to be identified discussing personnel matters.

Some managers were told their positions would no longer exist as of Feb. 1, two of the four sources said. More details about the layoffs and severance payments will be announced next week, they added.

Citigroup declined to comment.

The bank last week said it would cut 20,000 jobs over the next two years, after a fourth quarter marred by one-off charges that resulted in a $1.8 billion loss.

While Citi has provided periodic updates on the cuts, investors and workers are closely watching the timing and details around the organizational changes. Fraser’s call on Thursday has not previously been reported.

During the call with managing directors, Fraser discussed different topics of the reorganization and addressed the broader plan for 20,000 job cuts over the next two years, according to one of the sources, who was briefed on the call.

Headcount will be cut by 5,000 people in the current reorganization, while another 5,000 employees will be culled from selling businesses, the source cited Fraser as saying.

A further 10,000 staff will be laid off from support functions like technology and operations, the source added.

Citi’s planned cut of roughly 8% of its staff is among the biggest layoffs on Wall Street in recent years. The overhaul is central to Fraser’s effort to streamline the bank and boost its returns and share price.

The third-largest US bank is also dealing with a 2020 consent order by regulators demanding corrections to several “longstanding deficiencies” in its internal controls.

Citi appointed Jagdish Rao as its regulatory reporting and remediation head, reporting to finance chief Mark Mason and Chief Operating Officer Anand Selvakesari, according to an internal memo, the contents of which were shared with Reuters and confirmed by a Citi spokesperson.

Rao most recently served as chief administrative officer for the personal banking and wealth management business.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Citigroup plans to cut 20,000 jobs in next two years

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Citigroup will cut 20,000 jobs over the next two years, the bank said on Friday, after reporting a $1.8 billion quarterly loss driven by a string of one-off charges.

Shares of the bank – which has rolled out a multi-year effort to cut bureaucracy, increase profits and boost a stock that has lagged peers – fell more than 1%.

“The fourth quarter was very clearly disappointing,” CEO Jane Fraser told analysts. “We know that 2024 is critical.”

The lender will reduce its global workforce of 239,000 by 20,000 through 2026, including layoffs from the sweeping reorganization, Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason told reporters.

Citi also expects to no longer count 40,000 jobs when it spins off and lists its Mexican consumer unit Banamex in an eventual initial public offering. Given the headcount reduction and separation of Banamex, it aims to reach a staffing level of 180,000 employees, Mason said.

Analysts said results from the third-largest US lender by assets were strong when the one-off charges were excluded.

“Citigroup‘s earnings looked awful with a big loss of $1.8 billion, but the bank’s underlying business showed resilience,” said Octavio Marenzi, CEO at management consultancy firm Opimas.

The loss was driven by $3.8 billion in charges disclosed in a filing on Wednesday that included reorganization expenses, a reserve related to currency devaluations and instability in Argentina and Russia and a $1.7 billion payment to replenish a government deposit insurance fund.

The bank expects to report between $700 million and $1 billion in charges this year related to severance costs and the reorganization.

“Whenever an industry or company goes through these types of reductions, it’s tough on morale,” Mason told reporters. The staffing cuts will not affect revenue growth, he said.

Rivals JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America on Friday reported lower quarterly profits, while Wells Fargo outperformed on cost cuts.

Citi’s revenue fell 3% to $17.4 billion in the quarter from a year earlier. It was the first time the bank broke out earnings for its five businesses — services, markets, banking, US personal banking and wealth, which were previously housed under broader divisions.

Revenue from markets, or the trading division, dropped 19% to $3.4 billion from a year earlier. It was dragged lower by a 25% plunge in fixed income revenue from sluggish rates and currency markets, as well as losses from Argentina.

In contrast, banking revenue climbed 22% to $949 million, led by higher investment banking fees for debt capital markets and advisory work that offset a slide in corporate lending.

In US personal banking, revenue climbed 12% to $4.9 billion, lifted by retail banking and credit cards.

But consumers have begun to show signs of stress, prompting Citi to set aside more money to cover losses on souring loans.

“The restructuring announced two months ago was a long time coming,” said Chris Marinac, director of research at Janney Montgomery Scott. “The question comes down to: Can they execute on this restructuring in terms of really being able to grow the core business? The jury is still out.”

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow