Tag: Cement stocks

Cement sector may report healthy volumes amid price dip

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Cement demand remained strong in the January to March quarter (Q4FY24) amid a decline in prices.

However, the effect of lower prices was offset by favorable input costs.

Breaking down the demand trends:

The demand in January was weak due to weather conditions and pollution-related restrictions.

But the growth rebounded in February, while March emerged as the strongest month.

Volume growth is expected to recover in the fourth quarter, driven by heavy discounting from companies and increased construction activity towards the year’s end.

Analysts expect the demand at 8-9% in Q4, a big improvement on a sequential basis. For the year, the derived volume growth for the industry is likely to be around 9%.

On a regional basis, the Southern market underperformed, while the West as well as Central India were the best-performing regions.

Pricing trends in the fourth quarter:

Cement prices have steadily declined over the past five months following the increases in September and October 2023.

Therefore, the realisations in the fourth quarter are expected to decline by around 5% sequentially.

Despite it being a seasonally strong quarter, cement prices were affected by fierce competition among major companies aiming to increase their market share.

The most significant quarterly price drop was observed in East India, at roughly 8%, with other regions experiencing declines between 3-5%.

In March, spot prices for international coal and pet coke returned to December 2023 levels. Yet they remain 5-14% lower than the averages seen in the third and second quarters.

Also Read | UltraTech Cement gets ₹7.92 crore GST demand from Karnataka authority

The operating leverage and stable to decreasing variable costs on a quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) basis are expected to keep overall costs in check, with a projected decline of 4-6% year-over-year (YoY) and sequentially.

Brokerage firm Jefferies forecasts that the stocks it covers will experience an earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) per tonne reduction of approximately ₹110 on a sequential basis.

However, EBITDA per tonne is anticipated to increase by about ₹125 on a YoY basis.

Most companies are expected to see EBITDA per tonne growth, with ACC particularly well-positioned due to easing costs, volume growth from recent capacity additions, and relatively favorable valuations compared to its peers. This growth is also partly attributed to the low base effect from the previous year.

Among the larger peers, Jefferies expects the highest growth for Ambuja Cement at the consolidated level over last year, while UltraTech and Shree Cement are expected to grow by around 18 to 27% in terms of EBITDA.

In midcaps, Dalmia could potentially underperform with sub-10% growth, while JK Cement, and Birla Corp, could outperform with nearly 50% EBITDA growth.

What next?

Given the ongoing general election, a decrease in demand is possible. However, it’s crucial to monitor the extent of price increases, their market acceptance, and the expected recovery in demand later in the financial year (April to March 2024-25).

For more details, watch the accompanying video

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This cement stock has gained more than ₹200 per share in trade today

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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UltraTech Cement shares jumped more than ₹200 apiece, surging over 2% on Monday as the Street turned bullish on its plans to buy a 1.1-mtpa grinding unit in Maharashtra for ₹315 crore will expand capacity and presence in the fast-growing region. UltraTech Cement hit the day’s high price of ₹9,590. At 2.17 pm, the stock was quoted at ₹9,585.

Global brokerage Morgan Stanley has maintained its “overweight” stance on the stock and target price at ₹11,600, as the Maharashtra unit will boost the cement major’s presence in the state.

The acquisition, valued at ₹315 crore, was formalised through an Asset Purchase Agreement between UltraTech Cement and India Cements Ltd.

The unit located in Maharashtra’s Parli also includes a captive railway siding, it said, while adding that the company plans to expand the brownfield development of 1.8 mtpa at Dhule in the state.

#CNBCTV18Market | Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight call on UltraTech Cement. Says company’s expansion will further strengthen its presence in Maharashtra pic.twitter.com/MOhfdQmEaU

— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18Live) April 22, 2024

The expansion will cumulatively cost around ₹500 crore and will be funded by internal accruals, the brokerage firm said. Earlier this month, the company completed a 100-megawatt (MW) solar energy project under the Group Captive Scheme in Rajasthan.

This was the company’s first project to source power for its captive consumption from the inter-state transmission network.

ALSO READ | UltraTech best positioned in cement demand upcycle, says this analyst post ₹32,400 cr capex plan

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Emkay’s Manish Sonthalia is bullish on this sector for the long term

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Manish Sonthalia, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Emkay Investment Managers  sees the cement sector as a good investment bet from a 2-3 year perspective. He recommends buying cement stocks on dips.

In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Sonthalia said the capex (capital expenditure) cycle is in an upswing and this benefits the entire value chain including raw materials like cement.

Currently, while volumes are growing, pricing is an issue because capacity utilisation in certain parts of the country is not that great.

Also, there might be a slowdown in demand for cement until the general elections, which begin on April 19 and conclude with the announcement of results on June 4.

Also Read | Adani family invests ₹6,661 crore in Ambuja Cements, raises stake to 66.7%

However, the pricing action will improve post-election results “because capex will pick up, ordering etc. will pick up post (election) results,” Sonthalia said.

Sonthalia also discussed his view on the automotive industry.

He expects assenger vehicles (PVs) and two-wheelers to do better than commercial vehicles (CVs) and tractors in FY25.

However, the growth rates in FY25 over FY24 for two-wheelers and passenger vehicles is going to be slower.

Also Read | Bajaj Auto sees 25% jump in sales in March, expects continued exports recovery in FY25

He believes the auto ancillary sector could be a better opportunity, particularly if exports pick up and India becomes a centre for exporting auto ancillary products.

The auto ancillary sector includes various segments like light-emitting diode (LED) manufacturers, battery management systems, and numerous tyre companies.

Also Read | Tata Technologies gains 7% on collaboration with BMW to set up automotive software hub in India

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Shree Cement shares rally as Q3 profit more than doubles and margin expands to 25%

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Shree Cement shares surged in early trade on February 1, a day after the firm reported its earnings for the October to December 2023 quarter, in which its standalone profit jumped 165% to ₹734 crore, beating the CNBC-TV18 poll projection of ₹607 crore.

Shree Cement shares traded 5.89% lower from the previous close at ₹30,218.65 on BSE at 9:46 am.

Brokerage firm Morgan Stanley lauded the volumes, which it said were likely led by market share gains in the eastern region. However, it maintained its equal-weight call on the company and set a target price of ₹28,500, which is slightly lower than ₹28,538.95.

Morgan Stanley noted that the strong volume growth outlook continues with a rising share of premium products. And that, better volumes coupled with a good show on opex drove good earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) beat.

The brokerage comments come as Shree Cement’s total sale volume increased 11% YoY in the December 2023 ended quarter to 8.89 million tonnes from 8.03 million tonnes in the same quarter last year.

Following the Q3 results, SCL Managing Director Neeraj Akhoury said the company was executing a comprehensive performance improvement plan, and we are experiencing a positive impact.

“Strong volume growth along with building premium products through accelerated channel expansion and softening of fuel prices has helped us to deliver a robust improvement… We are fully prepared to complete our various projects to reach beyond 80 million tonnes of cement production capacity by the year 2028,” he said.

EBITDA for the quarter surged 74% YoY to ₹1,234 crore from ₹708 crore in the year-ago period, while margin expanded by 780 basis points to 25.2% from 17.4% in Q3FY23.

The cement maker’s net revenue from operations for the quarter has risen 20% YoY to ₹4,901 crore, compared with ₹4,069 crore in the same quarter last year.

Recently, the company commenced commercial production from its integrated cement plant at village Gothra in Nawalgarh Tehsil of Rajasthan having a clinker capacity of 11500 tonnes per day (3.8 MT per annum) and cement capacity at 3.5 MT per annum with effect from January 22, 2024.

The work on 18 MT capacity expansion projects already announced is running as per schedule.

Additionally, the company has decided to add one more cement mill of 3 MT per annum capacity at its upcoming plant at Ras in Rajasthan. On completion, its total India cement capacity will be around 75 MT.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Ambuja Cements Q3 results: Profit jumps nearly 40%, margin expands to 19% but misses estimate

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Cement maker Ambuja Cements’ net profit rose 39.2% year-on-year to ₹513.7 crore but missed CNBC-TV18 poll estimates, according to the quarterly earnings report released by the firm on January 31.

The Adani Group firm’s revenue for the third quarter of the financial year rose 7.5% to ₹4,439.5 crore compared to ₹4,128 crore in the same period a year ago. The analysts polled by CNBC-TV18 had pegged revenue at ₹4,399 crore.

Ambuja Cements’ margin also expanded by 400 basis points year-on-year to 19.2% from 15.2% earlier. The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA), meanwhile, has risen 33% YoY to ₹850 crore for the December 2023 ended quarter. The firm also highlighted that the third quarter’s EBITDA margin is the highest in the last 10 quarters.

In the Q3 results statement, the firm pointed out that in December 2023, Ambuja Cements completed the acquisition of Sanghi Industries having a 6.1 MTPA capacity. This month, Ambuja’s subsidiary ACC completed the acquisition of the balance 55% stake in Asian Concretes and Cements Private Ltd (ACCPL) having 2.8 MTPA capacity.

“These acquisitions reinforce the Adani Group’s market leadership and take its cement capacity to 77.4 MTPA, a jump of 15% from last year. Integration of these acquired companies is going on well,” the firm said in its statement.

Also Read: Sanghi Industries’ operating profit per tonne will match Ambuja’s in two years, says Karan Adani

Ambuja Cements explains that sustained cost reduction and efficiency improvements, volume expansion, and group synergies have contributed to profitability improvement.

The statement comes as the company recorded sales volume growth of 3% driven by ground network improvement, focus on micro markets, addition in the ground sales team, improved physical infrastructure, targeted marketing campaigns with technical support services, high acceptance of premium products (22% of trade sales volume) and accelerated branding and promotion activities.

It also noted that power and fuel costs have reduced by ₹349/t of cement. Other expenses, it said, were maintained or were marginally higher due to the phasing of the planned shutdown, advertisement and promotion expenses.

Following the results, Ambuja Cements shares at 1:53 pm were trading at ₹559, which is 2.02% lower than their previous close on BSE.

Also Read: Ultratech Cement Q3 result: Profit up over 1.5 times to ₹1,775 cr, revenue at ₹16,740 cr in line with estimate

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Nomura expects strong volume growth to aid cement margins; Upgrades UltraTech, Ramco

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Brokerage firm Nomura has upgraded cement stocks UltraTech Cement, Dalmia Bharat and Ramco Cements, along with raising their respective price targets as well.

The brokerage has upgraded these stocks to “buy” from the earlier rating of “neutral.” Additionally, it has also increased the price target on Shree Cements, while maintaining its “buy” recommendation.

Nomura believes that the momentum in cement stocks is likely to continue with margins expanding on the back of stronger volume growth, pricing discipline and relatively lower fuel costs.

The brokerage also expects strong sales volume growth to continue in the second half of the current financial year. Volume growth over financial year 2025-2026 is likely to be higher than that in the past decade, Nomura said.

Trade prices are also likely to improve as the industry exits a pre-election phase with a recent industry survey suggesting a bright outlook, the brokerage said.

Shares of UltraTech Cement are trading at a record high of ₹10,300, having gained 2.8%. The stock is closing in on the ₹3 lakh crore market capitalisation mark.

Shares of Ramco Cement are also trading 2.2% higher at ₹1,010, while those of Dalmia Bharat are also trading 3% higher at ₹2,309.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Citi cuts target price on Ambuja Cements but still sees over 20% upside in stock

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Adani group firm Ambuja Cements rose nearly 4% in the trading session on November 2, a day after the company reported a nearly five times year-on-year jump in its profit for the September quarter at ₹644 crore.

The cement maker’s revenue for the second quarter of FY24 rose 8% year-on-year to ₹3,969.8 crore. Though Ambuja Cements’ results beat CNBC-TV18 poll projection on the profit front, its revenue, margin and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation or EBITDA came in lower than expectations.

Following the quarterly earnings report, brokerage firm Citi has retained its buy call on the cement maker’s stock but cut the target price to Rs 500 from Rs 535. The new target still implies that it expects a 23% upside in the stock from the closing price on November 1.

The brokerage pointed to the market share loss during the quarter and noted that the management expects volumes and EBITDA per tonne to witness an upside.

Citi explained that it has a buy call on the stock on the back of Adani’s ambitions to double capacity as most near-term capex appears to be in Ambuja. It also expects upsides from cost efficiencies as the cement maker expects Rs 1,400-1,500/t EBITDA improvement.

The brokerage also believes that there would be a favourable swap ratio for the firm should there be a merger with ACC. It, however, highlighted the pending clarity on the alignment of grinding capacities with clinker.

Citi expects the stock to be range-bound in the near term.

Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, has an equal-weight stance on Ambuja Cements with a target price of Rs 390 though it said both standalone and consolidated Q2 EBITDA was weaker than expected. The brokerage said the EBITDA came weaker given weak volumes and realisations.

It said, that while Ambuja’s medium-term expansion plans are intact, the execution of various initiatives is key.

Morgan Stanley also expects near-term growth to remain challenging but sees risk-reward as balanced on a relative basis.

Yes Securities, on the other hand, noted that under the new management, the cement maker targets to reach 140 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) by the financial year 2027-28 to regain the lost market share.

“In this endeavour, Ambuja plans to add 14MTPA GU and 12.75MTPA clinker units with a capex outlay of Rs 70 billion (65% ACEM standalone). Also, Sanghi Industries (SNGI) acquisition at EV of Rs 50 billion ($100/te) has a 6.1MTPA cement/ 6.5MTPA clinker capacity with 1000MT of limestone reserve and its future expansion,” the brokerage said.

Yes Securities added that this strategic move will increase the console capacity to 101MTPA (45.5MTPA standalone and excl. group capacity) by the 2025-26 fiscal.

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

South and West markets in India to see surge in cement price — industry experts analyse the sector trends

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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On September 25, DAM Capital released a report highlighting the favourable pricing dynamics for cement companies in southern India. While, the industry continued to exhibit pricing strength in September, primarily driven by eastern India.

In an interview with CNBC-TV18, P Radhakrishnan, Whole Time Director and CEO at Kesoram Industries, and Navin Sahadeo, Analyst at ICICI Securities, engaged in an in-depth discussion on the current on-ground conditions in the country’s cement sector.

Radhakrishnan began the discussion by announcing a significant development. “We are looking at scaling up the prices by about Rs 30 to 40 in the south Indian market,” he revealed.

Highlighting the broader market trends, Radhakrishnan stated, “West India prices have increased by Rs 50.” This substantial price hike in the western part of the country underscores the overall bullish sentiment within the Indian cement industry.

Sahadeo confirmed the positive outlook for the cement sector and commented on the specific regions witnessing remarkable price hikes. “There is a substantial hike in cement prices in the south, followed by the east,” he noted.

Sahadeo then turned his attention to potential investment opportunities within the industry. “JK Cement in the midcap space is the top pick,” he revealed.

One of the key factors driving the cement industry‘s upward trajectory is the encouraging demand, as highlighted by Sahadeo. “Demand is encouraging given the pre-election year,” he stated. Political as well as infrastructure projects often stimulate cement demand, and this observation indicates that such factors are currently at play.

The recent developments in the Indian cement industry, as discussed by  Radhakrishnan and Sahadeo, offer a glimpse into the sector’s promising future. Price hikes in the south and west, coupled with encouraging demand in the run-up to elections, paint a positive picture for investors and industry players alike. JK Cement’s recognition as a top pick in the midcap space reinforces the belief that the cement industry is set to cement its position as a robust contributor to India’s economic growth.

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Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Bernstein downgrades these cement stocks, cuts target price as it sees limited improvement in margins

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Analysts at Bernstein have downgraded three cement stocks, including Ultratech Cement and Ambuja Cement, while reducing the target prices further on an expected fall in their operating margins.

The analysts expect a potential downside of up to 14 percent in these cement stocks in the next 12 months as there is limited room for improvement in the operating margins due to rising coal inflation.

Bernstein, in a report on the cement sector, observed that it expects a 4-8 percent decline in the earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) per tonne with most of the positive news done and updated views on coal.

Also Read: EMS lists on the bourses at a 34% premium to issue price, becomes 25th listing of 2023

The brokerage also stated that it does not see reasons for further valuation re-rating from current levels as it sees limited room for improvement in EBITDA per tonne after the next two quarters.

The brokerage downgraded Shree Cement to ‘underperform’ and reduced its target price further from Rs 23,187 per share to Rs 22,341, implying a potential downside of 14 percent from Wednesday’s close.

Bernstein downgraded Ambuja Cement to ‘neutral’ and cut down the target price by nine percent from Rs 466 earlier to Rs 424 per share.

It also downgraded Ultratech Cement to ‘neutral’ and reduced the target price by three percent from Rs 8,565 earlier to Rs 8,256, implying potential downside of more than two percent from Wednesday’s close.

Also Read: Vedanta shares at 52-week-low ahead of board meeting to consider debt issuance

Cement companies have witnessed a rise in input cost as imported coal prices have firmed up around 15 percent in the past three months.

India’s largest coal miner Coal India Ltd in May announced an eight percent hike in prices of high-grade coal ranging from G2 to G10 to make up for high wage costs.

The price hike, which was the first significant increase in coal prices since 2018, was applicable to all subsidiaries of CIL.

Shree Cement shares were trading 0.19 percent lower at Rs 26059.60 apiece on BSE at 9.59 AM.

Ultratech Cement dropped 0.93 percent to Rs 8378.15 apiece while Ambuja Cement was trading lower by 0.63 percent at Rs 425.50 apice.

Catch the latest market updates with CNBC-TV18.com’s blog 

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Why were cement stocks buzzing in trade today?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Cement stocks, including Dalmia Bharat, Ramco Cements, and Ultratech, clearly have done well in trade today (September 4) probably because of pre-election spends and volume updates. Foreign brokerage house Jefferies has interacted with the dealers and come out with its latest note.

The pan-India weighted average price moderated marginally 1 percent month-on-month to Rs 369 per bag in August 2023. However, price increases have been pushed through in the month of September, in the range of Rs 10-35 per bag.

In eastern India particularly, it’s more towards Rs 35 per bag and a price hike in the coming weeks is not ruled out.

In central India, producers have announced a price increase of around Rs 10 per bag and western India too witnessed price increase of Rs 15 per bag. So there are price increases across the board.

Jefferies noted that demand remains impressive as the sector is benefiting from low rains. According to the brokerage, most dealers have indicated stable or positive offtake for August 2023.

Jefferies continue to expect double-digit demand growth for fiscal 2023-24. The brokerage also pointed out that the second quarter could have a pleasant surprise with operating leverage being played out as offtake is seen as being rather good.

Energy costs will be dipping. Prices on a quarter-to-quarter basis will be flattish.

Meanwhile, foreign brokerage firm Nomura remains bullish on Shree Cement and has upgraded the stock to ‘buy’ from ‘reduce.’ The brokerage has a target price of Rs 28,700, implying a 12 percent upside from the day’s close. The counter ended at Rs 25,619 on the NSE.

The key driver for Nomura’s upgrade is an adjustment to its one-year forward EV/EBITDA multiple, which has been raised to 19 times from 13 times.

Nomura’s decision to boost the multiple is underpinned by several factors, which the brokerage firm views as structural and potentially instrumental in driving future earnings growth beyond the forecast period.

It said Shree Cement will maintain its cost leadership within the industry. This is expected to be achieved through various strategic initiatives, including an increase in the share of green power to 63 percent, an expansion of alternative fuel capacity to enhance the thermal rate of substitution, and the establishment of railway sidings at all plants to reduce freight costs.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow