South Asia’s tussle with terrorism: Overcoming obstacles against rising extremism
Summary
On assessing the average impact of terrorism globally, South Asia remains the worst affected as per the latest Global Terrorism Index. Turbulence in Afghanistan’s political regime is bad news for Pakistan and, in turn, for India.
Terrorism remains one of the most pressing issues in the world. The latest Global Terrorism Index (GTI) highlights deaths due to terrorism were at the highest level since 2017 — increasing by 22% in 2023 from 2022. While terrorism in the West has fallen to the lowest levels since 2007, the South Asian countries Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan have a bigger problem.
According to the GTI data released in March 2024, South Asia had the “highest regional average impact from terrorism”. Of the seven countries forming part of the South Asian region, Bhutan is the only country with a GTI score of zero recording no terrorist attacks in the past five years.
The region’s peacefulness also had only improved marginally as per the last Global Peace Index (GPI) released in June 2023, which put the economic impact of violence at $1,395 in South Asia. And, Afghanistan was one of the least peaceful countries with a colossal impact of violence on its GDP at 46.5% in 2022.
Pakistan situation and the India story
Of the South Asian block in the GTI report, Pakistan has been the worst hit. The country saw 490 attacks in 2023. Pakistan jumped three spots to move to a GTI ranking of fourth this year, its worst rank since 2016.
“Pakistan has had a consistently high level of terrorism every year. It may be the only country that has been in the top 10 of the index for every year that we’ve been doing it. And, every year, the majority of that terrorism takes place along the border regions (like Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa),” said Thomas Morgan, Chief Of Research, Global Terrorism Index.
India has marginally improved its position in the GTI to reach a rank of 14 but challenges are prominent. “Over the past decade, there have often been fluctuations in India year-on-year. It’s hard to draw a strong conclusion based on the change from one year to another. Having said that, the trend over the past decade is for a lower level of terrorism,” said Morgan, adding that the country still has the second-highest number of terrorist attacks in South Asia.
It’s also a tricky situation for India as neighbours face high terrorist activities.
Measuring Terrorism In South Asia
Compared to its global peers, South Asia witnessed a decline in the index in 2023, led by a massive fall in terrorist activity reported in Afghanistan. Highlighting the shift in Afghanistan’s ranking in GTI to sixth against the last five years before 2023, Morgan said, “Since the withdrawal of US troops and the Taliban’s takeover, just the overall level of conflict is much lower than it was. That’s not to say that there aren’t other issues like human rights abuses, associated with the Taliban.”
The report added a caveat that terrorism-related incidents by state actors do not come under the ambit of the GTI scoring mechanism.
But this turbulence in Afghanistan’s political regime is bad news for Pakistan and, in turn, for India. The GTI report states terrorist attacks in Pakistan’s border regions have seen intense involvement of militant groups from Afghanistan. Terrorism-related conflicts in Pakistan’s border regions contributed to the majority of attacks in the country and accounted for 96% of Pakistan’s terrorism-related deaths in 2023.
On assessing the average impact of terrorism globally, South Asia remains the worst affected as per GTI. “It’s difficult to estimate the impact of terrorism just by the total number of deaths. Going from say 0 to 100 deaths will increase a country’s score a lot whereas going from 100 to 1,000 deaths won’t increase it by as much. The reason why it’s done that way is to capture the fact that terrorism has this outsized psychological impact, so that in a country which usually experiences no terrorism, having one or two attacks will have an outsized impact on society,” said Morgan.
Tackling Terrorist Organisations
Overall, the Islamic State (IS) remains the deadliest terrorist organisation. IS was responsible for several attacks globally and largely operates via affiliates. Many attacks in places like Pakistan though have occurred without a terrorist group taking responsibility.
“Organisations like the Tehreek-E-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Deobandi are becoming stronger in Pakistan than IS in the region,” said Adil Rasheed, Research-Fellow & Coordinator Of Counter-Terrorism Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute For Defence Studies & Analyses.
He added that such non-state actors are increasing engagement in global conflicts with groups of non-Wahhabi orientation like Hamas, and Taliban, among others, becoming more influential.
The report distinctively shows a strong correlation between terrorist groups and organised crime. Terrorist organisations like IS have been observed to harbour organised crime as a source of funding or logistical support. “Unlike Wahhabi groups, organisations like the Taliban are seen carrying out trade with China. Similarly, Hamas is seen trading with Iran and Chechen groups are engaging financially with Russia and Ukraine, depicting the role of morphed non-state actors,” said Rasheed.
Although the Taliban is not characterised as a terrorist organisation under the GPI, too, the report says that groups like the Islamic State In The Khorasan or ISK present a strong possibility of conflict escalation with the de-facto regime in Afghanistan.
Economic Turmoils and Terrorism
The report suggests that nations with weak state capability are most likely to see organised crime by terrorist groups. Countries such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan are all wrestling economic turmoils, a phenomenon which is considered a contributing factor towards the proliferation of terrorism.
“Pakistan’s economy is in shambles. The country is imploding politically and socially. Remote areas are susceptible to non-government forces becoming more violent and taking over such areas,” said Rasheed.
The GTI score for South Asia has also improved, in part, due to a reported decline in terrorism-related deaths and attacks in Nepal and Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka went down two spots to get a better GTI position of 33 in 2024 and Nepal went down eight spots to get a GTI rank of 45 in 2024.
The situation in another of India’s neighbours, Bangladesh, deteriorated in the index. Bangladesh jumped 14 spots to get a worse GTI rank of 32 in 2024.
A marginal shift in the GTI index for most countries in the South Asia bloc has raised concerns as the region sustains two of the worst 10 GTI score countries, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Amidst the complex landscape of South Asia, geopolitical dynamics, regional conflicts and economic challenges underscore the nature of the region’s struggle with terrorism. Addressing activities related to terrorism to ensure the region’s sustained development and political stability has become both inevitable and paramount.
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