Fear of AI taking over jobs is overblown, says former CEA KV Subramanian
Summary
KV Subramanian, CNBC-TV18’s Budget Editor this year, addressed AI concerns in an exclusive interview. He downplayed job loss fears, citing historical patterns and recent research.
In an exclusive interview with CNBC-TV18 Managing Director Shereen Bhan, KV Subramanian, former Chief Economic Adviser and board member for India at the International Monetary Fund as well as CNBC-TV18’s Budget Editor this year, shared his insights on the advent of artificial intelligence.
Earlier in the day, CEA Anantha Nageswaran had said AI poses profound and troubling questions, particularly in the context of how technology might erode the advantage of cost competitiveness enjoyed by countries exporting digital services.
The conversation began with a reference to the CEA’s remarks, which highlighted the risks for growth in services, trade, and employment.
Subramanian acknowledged the significance of the issue and drew upon recent research conducted by scholars like Daron Acemoglu and David Autor at MIT. He stated, “If we look at some of the latest research — for instance, Daron Acemoglu, and David Autor at MIT have been doing work in this area. And what they opine is that the assessment of the impact of AI and automation on employment, in general, is either one of fear or excessive pessimism or of complacency.”
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Subramanian emphasised that historical patterns of technological advancements have seen a recurrent cycle of fear and adaptation. Drawing parallels with past innovations like the introduction of automobiles and ATMs, he highlighted that job markets have always transformed, with certain roles evolving or becoming obsolete.
“If you look at the overall picture, what they say is that the total impact in terms of job loss per se will be anywhere between 8 and 10%, not more than that,” Subramanian said, downplaying the more alarming predictions. He noted that while job roles may change, the overall impact on employment might not be as severe as some fear-mongering suggests.
Subramanian concluded, “Automation is something that has been happening over the last two-and-a-half centuries, and whenever this happens, there is this fear-mongering of it destabilising society. But I think history proves that we need not be as scared, because commentators will say, ‘Oh, this time is going to be different because it is artificial intelligence.’ The important thing to remember is that there’ll be some impact, but the impact will not be as large as some of the fear-mongering seems to suggest.”
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