Trade Setup for March 1: 17,300 comes to the rescue for Nifty 50 yet again but only just
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)
Summary
BSE-listed companies have now lost Rs 25,000 crore in market capitalisation, marking the biggest ever drop in the first two months of the year.
The Nifty 50 is hanging on to the 17,300 level by the thinnest possible thread but managed to defend the level for the second day in a row. Tuesday was the eighth straight day of losses for the index.
Investors lost another Rs 16,000 crore on Tuesday, taking the total drop in February to Rs 13,000 crore. BSE-listed companies have now lost Rs 25,000 crore in market capitalisation, marking the biggest ever drop in the first two months of the year.
The Nifty 50 managed to defend 17,300 on Tuesday despite breaking below Monday’s low of 17,299 and making a fresh intraday low of 17,256, 100 points adrift of the Budget-day low, which was once considered a crucial support.
Pharma stocks were among the top losers on the Nifty 50 on Tuesday, followed by Metals and heavyweights like Reliance Industries, ITC, and BPCL.
Today’s session would see the market react to quarterly GDP figures, which came in marginally below a CNBC-TV18 poll. More macro data will be reported today with companies reporting monthly auto sales for February, along with the country’s manufacturing PMI.
Abhiram Eleswarapu of BNP Paribas believes that the market may be getting complacent about rate cuts and that the expectations of rate cuts in the second half of the year may be misplaced, given how strong the US economic data has been. Speaking of the foreign inflows moving from India to China, Eleswarapu said that it is possible for China to outperform India for some more time.
What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street?
After having declined for eight straight sessions, Jai Bala of cashthechaos.com expects a pullback in the index but the rallies are likely to be short-lived. He does not see the index going beyond levels of 17,600 – 17,700. For the near-term, he sees support for the index at 17,030, 16,934, and 16,750 on the downside. “These supports may provide temporary relief but we have got much more downside to work with,” he said.
The Nifty 50 index has corrected over 800 points from the February 16 high of 18,134 without any pullback move, leading to momentum readings on the lower timeframe charts entering the oversold territory, according to Ruchit Jain of 5paisa.com. He does not believe taking a bearish view on the index at current levels as the risk reward is unfavourable.
Jain also advises keeping an eye out on the Dollar Index, movement of the USD-INR and the bond yields, where the rally has resulted in more selling within equities. Immediate support on the downside for the Nifty 50 is seen in a broad range of 17,100 – 17,300.
The Nifty 50 may have broken below its Budget-day low but the Nifty Bank is still holding on to its low of 39,490. The index has formed a doji candle on the daily chart, according to Kunal Shah of LKP Securities. He sees the index support at 39,700 and upside resistance at 40,300 and a break on either side will lead to trending moves. However, Jai Bala advises caution to not take the non-breaking of the Budget-day low as a sign of strength.
Here are key things to know about the market ahead of the trading session on March 1:
SGX Nifty
On Wednesday, Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures — an early indicator of the Nifty 50 index — declined 33 points or 0.19 percent to 17,366, thereby pointing to a subdued opening for the market.
Global Markets
Benchmarks on Wall Street gave up most of Monday’s gains to end lower to end a rough month overall. The Dow Jones fell over 200 points, while the S&P 500 declined 0.3 percent. The Nasdaq ended flat.
For the month of February, the Dow Jones ended 4.2 percent lower, thereby turning negative on a year-to-date basis. However, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq remain in positive territory for the year, despite losing 2.6 percent and 1.1 percent respectively for the month.
What to expect on Dalal Street
Osho Krishnan of Angel One advises traders to not short the Nifty 50 at current levels and wait whether any follow-up selling takes place or not. He expects 17,200 as an immediate support, with upside resistance at 17,400 and 17,500.
Sentiment is very bearish as the Nifty 50 closed below its 200-day moving average, according to Rupak De of LKP Securities. He expects the index to further decline towards 17,150 – 17,100, with immediate resistance visible at 17,400.
Rohan Patil of SAMCO Securities believes that while the overall trend is negative, a minor recovery at current levels cannot be ruled out. He sees immediate support for the Nifty 50 at 17,250 – 17,200 levels, with resistance capped at 17,550. In case the index breaks below 17,200, the next downside support is at 17,000.
Key Levels To Track
For tomorrow’s weekly options expiry, the 17,400 strike call of the Nifty 50 index added 47.8 lakh shares in Open Interest, followed by the 17,300 call, which added over 37 lakh shares. The 17,500 call also added nearly 31 lakh shares in Open Interest.
On the downside, the 17,300 put added 22.8 lakh shares in Open Interest, while the 17,400 put saw shedding of 16.1 lakh shares.
Nifty 50’s put-call ratio has slipped further to 0.67 from 0.72 on Monday. No stocks are currently in the F&O ban.
FII/DII activity
Long Build-up (Increase In Price and Open Interest)
Stock |
Current OI |
CMP |
Price Change |
OI Change |
Escorts Kubota |
13,63,725 |
2000.10 |
1.60% |
11.99% |
HCLTech |
1,42,58,300 |
1,093.75 |
0.36% |
10.29% |
Polycab |
8,62,500 |
3037.00 |
1.33% |
9.48% |
Gujarat Gas |
37,35,000 |
508.45 |
0.28% |
8.46% |
ACC |
46,49,750 |
1,744.75 |
2.24% |
6.92% |
Short Build-up (Decrease In Price and Increase In Open Interest)
Stock |
Current OI |
CMP |
Price Change |
OI Change |
Cipla |
1,12,95,700 |
912.80 |
-4.53% |
21.58% |
Vedanta |
3,80,68,000 |
269.90 |
-6.69% |
18.41% |
Coal India |
4,08,99,600 |
214.50 |
-1.52% |
8.70% |
LTIMindtree |
12,25,200 |
4747.10 |
-1.17% |
7.63% |
Dalmia Bharat |
19,06,000 |
1,846.50 |
-0.30% |
7.26% |
Short Covering (Increase In Price and Decrease In Open Interest)
Stock |
Current OI |
CMP |
Price Change |
OI Change |
Adani Enterprises |
1,09,50,750 |
1380.00 |
14.94% |
-14.86% |
Power Grid |
2,74,05,000 |
223.20 |
1.39% |
-11.97% |
City Union Bank |
1,12,35,000 |
138.80 |
2.13% |
-6.48% |
MCX |
9,15,600 |
1412.30 |
1.68% |
-5.57% |
REC |
4,22,08,000 |
114.65 |
1.69% |
-4.59% |
Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout
3 Mins Read
Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter
KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow