India needs 5.1% growth in March quarter to achieve 7% annual target, says CEA Nageswaran
Summary
Nageswaran noted that manufacturing is in good health but flagged uncertainties with regard to monsoon and cautioned that the government will need to be ready with supply and monetary policy measures.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Tuesday said India needs to grow by 5.1 percent in the March quarter to hit a 7 percent annual growth projection in GDP for the full financial year. He also said the growth forecast of 7 percent is “very realistic” and there is nothing to suggest that it was not achievable.
Nageswaran said, “We need to abstract from the numbers and focus on what the data generally tell us. It is important to note that the GDP for the current financial year has been maintained at 7 percent.”
“We will need 5.1 percent year-on-year basis growth in real GDP in fiscal Q4 to hit 7.0 percent annual real GDP growth for FY23. On the other hand, if we grow only at 4.4 percent (Y/Y) in Q4, the annual growth rate will be around 6.8 percent. As I mentioned, the momentum in the economy seems strong and stable and there is nothing to suggest that we won’t be able to get there,” he added.
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Nageswaran noted that manufacturing is in good health but flagged uncertainties with regard to monsoon and cautioned that the government will need to be ready with supply and monetary policy measures.
“Of course, we know there was a slight uptick in the inflation data for January, and RBI has also maintained that inflation will come down gradually, and now we do have some uncertainties related to the monsoon because of the El Niño activity etc . So it is something where we need to be ready with both supply side and monetary policy measures , in the course of next financial year ,” CEA said.
India’s GDP grew 13.5 percent in June 2022 quarter and 6.3 percent in September 2022 quarter. The growth slowed to 4.4 percent in the October-December quarter, mainly due to a contraction in the manufacturing sector, as per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday.
The Finance Ministry’s Economic Survey has projected economic growth to be 6.5 percent in the 2023-24 fiscal beginning April 2023. Downside risks dominate the 6.5 percent growth forecast for next fiscal, he said, adding “no big-ticket shock is expected in the next fiscal”.
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