Month: February 2019

Elon Musk not worried about Tesla Model 3 demand, Wall Street thinks otherwise

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Tesla Inc shares fell on Thursday as Wall Street wondered if demand for its mass market Model 3 sedan could be sustained while it tries to make substantial inroads in China.

Chief executive officer Elon Musk said he sees higher demand for the Model 3, as the electric car maker begins to ship cars to Europe and Asia from its Fremont, California factory.

“The critical Model 3 cost structure appears to be improving with both scale and manufacturing experience, with the company expecting a 25 percent gross margin “at some point” during 2019″ Canaccord Genuity analysts said.

The company estimated that Model 3 production at its Freemont plant will rise to 7,000 cars, and its Shanghai factory will build 3,000 Model 3s weekly by year’s end.

“The profitability picture for Tesla looks encouraging … with Musk & Co giving some good granularity around projections for 2019 on the demand and production fronts, with ample cash to pay its upcoming debt payment which is around the corner,” Wedbush analysts said in a note.

But some analysts were concerned by Tesla’s indication that it is only making cars for China and Europe right now, and expects a gap of about 10,000 vehicles between production and deliveries because of vehicles in transit at the end of the first quarter.

“This is a strong indication that demand in the US for both the mid-range and long-range Model 3 versions has largely been exhausted, and the company is still working through the estimated ~6.8k of unsold Model 3 inventory,” Cowen analysts said.

The company’s shares, which fell as much as much as 4.7 percent in morning trade, pared most of their losses to trade down 0.3 percent at $307.77.

Tesla is pumping money into the Shanghai factory, which it hopes to bring on line at the end of this year with a target of producing 500,000 vehicles annually. But several analysts questioned whether the investment would pay off.

“Tesla serves the purpose of a ‘stalking horse’ to the fast growing domestic Chinese EV industry, but we believe it has limited to zero terminal value in a region where a number of domestic champions should emerge,” Morgan Stanley analysts said.

Tesla’s weaker-than-expected fourth quarter profit, and its announcement that chief financial officer Deepak Ahuja would leave and hand over the reins to 34-year-old Zach Kirkhorn, its vice president of finance, surprised investors, sending shares lower on Wednesday.

JPMorgan analysts warned that Ahuja’s departure deprived the company of long automotive industry experience and relative stability in a company which has seen a steady stream of senior staff come and go since 2016.

The company is striving to stabilize production and deliver consistent profit. It ended the quarter with $4.3 billion in cash and said it had “sufficient cash on hand” to pay a $920 million convertible bond maturing in March.

Of the 31 brokerages covering Tesla, 10 have a “buy” or higher rating, 10 “hold” and 11 have a “sell” or lower rating and their median price target is $327.50.

Only five changed their price targets on Thursday, with three raises and two cuts. Wedbush cut its price target by $50 to $390.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Amazon India drops products from site, says new e-commerce policy to hit price selection for customers

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Amazon.com Inc has come out with a strong statement on the new FDI rules in India, stating that the policy will affect price selection and convenience for customers and sellers, in one of the first significant comments from the e-commerce giant. The statement came even as Amazon India brought swift changes to its platform overnight on Thursday to comply under the new rules, with its seller entities Cloudtail and Appario virtually disappearing from the platform, and several of its private label products also missing.

The impact of the rules was a concern raised by multiple analysts during the Q4 earnings call on Thursday, just a day ahead of the FDI rules coming into effect, marking a significant impact on Amazon’s business structures in India, especially its control on inventory and pricing.

The Indian government has not given Amazon and Walmart-owned FLipkart anyway leeway in complying with the new e-commerce policy, reiterating on Thursday that there will be no extension of the February deadline.

“There is much uncertainty on the impact of government rule changes on ecommerce,” CFO Brian Olsavsky said on the call. “We remain committed to complying to the rules, but we are evaluating the situation. The main concern is trying to minimize impact on consumers and sellers.”

“We built the business around price selection and convenience, the changes don’t help in those dimensions for both sellers or customers,” Olsavsky said.

Asked whether the new policy will change the attractiveness of the Indian market for Amazon, the company reiterated the impact but said it continued to have long-term prospects.

“We are still evaluating. We feel good about the long term prospect in India. The new regulations need to be interpreted to ensure they have unintended consequences. It is not consistent with better price , better selection,” the company CFO said.

The new rules impact how e-commerce companies with FDI funding control inventory, disallows seller entities in which these companies have equity stake and also restricts how much vendors selling on the marketplace can source from the wholesale business of the e-commerce company

India’s significance for Amazon’s international business was highlighted during the earnings call last quarter, when Amazon said international sales slowed in the September quarter on account of Diwali falling later in the year in India than in 2017,

In the December quarter, Amazon’s international business, driven mainly by India, had seen a growth in sales of about 15% to $20.8 billion, suggesting slowing international growth for the e-commerce behemoth. Amazon had seen international sales grow by 30% in the same quarter in 2017.

However, Amazon is starting to rein in international losses which stood at $642 million in Q4, lower than the $919 million record the same quarter last year.

Overall, Amazon saw sales hit $72.4 billion in the December quarter, with full year sales reaching $232.9 billion, compared with $177.9 billion in 2017.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Budget 2019: Narendra Modi looks to shore up political base on Friday

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is expected to try and shore up its political support with big ticket farm giveaways and tax cuts for the middle class in its final federal budget on Friday, months before elections.

Modi is facing growing discontent over depressed farm incomes and doubts over whether his policies are creating enough jobs. A local media report on Thursday quoted a government survey as saying the jobless rate was the highest in at least 45 years, putting further pressure on the government.

Piyush Goyal, the interim finance minister, will present the 2019-20 budget to parliament, in the absence of finance minister Arun Jaitley, who is currently in the United States for medical treatment.

The government is set to step up rural welfare spending by 16 percent for the fiscal year beginning April to Rs 1,30,000 crore ($18.25 billion), two government sources said, aiming to boost support in the countryside where more than two-thirds of India’s 1.3 billion people live.

The budget, which is interim and is likely to be followed by a full one in July, is expected to project economic growth of around 7.5 percent for the next financial year, while expanding capital spending on railways, roads, ports by 7-8 percent, and estimating an increase in revenue of about 15 percent, officials said.

Stung by opposition parties’ victories in three state polls in December and needing to call a national election by May, Modi has already exempted many small businesses from paying taxes under a unified goods and services tax (GST).

The government is now considering raising the income level at which people need to pay personal tax, long a demand for the country’s influential middle class.

“The pressure to further expand the farmer welfare programme ahead of the 2019 elections is high for PM Modi,” said CLSA India.

More than 900 million people will be eligible to cast votes in the world’s biggest ever democratic exercise and the pressure to woo them is intense.

Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the main opposition Congress party, is closing in on Modi’s lead, according to polls. His promise of a minimum income for the poor has increased pressure on the government to make populist announcements in its budget.

The electoral compulsions mean that major economic reforms, such as tax cuts for bigger companies and plans to bring down the budget deficit, could be put on hold at least until after the election, government sources said.

The higher spending, along with a shortfall in tax collections, will push the fiscal deficit up to the equivalent of 3.5 percent of gross domestic product for the year ending in March, overshooting a previous 3.3 percent target, according to one of the sources with direct knowledge of budget discussions.

That would fit with the expectations of a Reuters poll of economists.

The source said there was a chance that the government could take corrective action in March, with an expectation that the election schedule will be settled by that time and that public focus will shift to campaigning.

“In our view, with the upcoming polls gaining precedence, fiscal consolidation is likely to take a back seat,” said Nirmal Bang, a brokerage.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Nintendo, Line developing ‘Dr. Mario World’ mobile game

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Japan’s Nintendo Co Ltd said on Friday it was developing a mobile title with Line Corp in the company’s latest push into mobile gaming. “Dr. Mario World“, its latest mobile title featuring popular Nintendo characters, will be released in mid-2019, the Kyoto-based company said in a statement.

Nintendo needs to find new sources of revenue to offset its aging 3DS handheld device, but despite releasing mobile titles with DeNA Co and CyberAgent Inc it has yet to score a big hit.

The company will undershoot its target of releasing two to three mobile titles in the financial year ending March after saying on Thursday that title “Mario Kart Tour” needed more work and pushing the release date back to mid-2019.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Facebook likely to face two more state probes on privacy issues

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Facebook Inc could be subjected to at least two more state probes in the United States on the alleged mishandling of user data, Bloomberg on Thursday.

The report, which cited people familiar with the matter, said Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro and his Illinois counterpart Kwame Raoul have joined forces with Connecticut to focus on investigating existing allegations.

The state probes are coalescing into two main groups, the report said. The states of New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts are also probing the social media giant and are seeking to uncover any potential unknown violations.

The Illinois attorney general’s office declined to comment on Bloomberg’s report when contacted by Reuters, while the office of the attorney general of Pennsylvania did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Facebook told Reuters in an emailed statement it was having “productive conversations” with attorneys general from a number of states.

“Many officials have approached us in a constructive manner, focused on solutions that ensure all companies are protecting people’s information, and we look forward to continuing to work with them,” Facebook’s vice president of state and local public policy, Will Castleberry, said.

Facebook and other tech giants have been under pressure for over a year after it was revealed that British consultancy Cambridge Analytical acquired data on millions of US users to target election advertising. That led to heads of several tech companies testifying before Congress last year.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Budget 2019 Wishlist: Tax-incentives for increasing household savings and supporting housing, MSME and digital transactions

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Despite being an interim budget, I expect Budget 2019 to make major announcements for providing tax reliefs to middle class taxpayers, easing credit supply to housing and MSME segments and incentivising digital transactions. Here are my Budget 2019 expectations.

Increase Section 80C deductions to boost long-term savings: Currently, Section 80C is crowded out by a wide range of qualifying expenses, such as home loan principal repayment, children’s education or tuition fee, life insurance premiums, employer’s contribution to EPF and payment of registration fee and stamp duty incurred on the construction or purchase of home property. Such a wide range of compulsory payments leave no incentive for the middle tax taxpayers to invest in tax saving fixed deposits, PPF, ELSS, NPS, etc for saving tax. With India’s household savings rate steadily declining over the last five years from over 23.6% in FY 2012 to about 16.3% as on March 2017, increasing the Section 80C deduction limit to Rs 3 lakh in Budget 2019 would encourage middle class households to increase their exposure in long term investment instruments.

Restore LTCG tax exemption on equities and equity mutual funds: The tax exemption on LTCG in equities played a major role in increasing retail investor participation in the equity markets. Hence, reintroducing LTCG tax exemption on equities and equity mutual funds will go a long way in increasing the equity penetration and improving the overall investor sentiment. Moreover, doing this will also bring tax parity with other equity-oriented schemes like NPS and ULIPs, which still remain exempt from LTCG tax.

Reintroduce Section 80EE deductions to encourage affordable housing: Section 80EE allows a deduction of Rs 50,000 on home loan interest payment. However, this deduction is only available to fresh home loan buyers who availed home loans of up to Rs 35 lakh for property valued up to Rs 50 lakh during the Financial Year 2016-17.  The deduction available is over and above the home loan interest deduction available under Section 24b. Thus, re-introducing Section 80EE for fresh buyers of affordable homes will boost the housing demand and help achieve the policy objective of “Housing for All by 2022”.

Create a separate deduction for term insurance: The main objective of buying a life insurance policy is to provide a replacement income to the dependents through a life cover in case of untimely demise. Ideally, this cover should be equal to at least 10-15 times of the annual income. Among all life insurance product categories, term insurance plans are the most cost effective ones to buy such large life covers. However, most confuse insurance as an investment vehicle and end up buying life policies that provide very little life cover. Introducing a separate section for term insurance within or beyond the Section 80C limit would act as tax incentive for buying term insurance policies and get adequately covered in the process.

Incentivise digital transaction through lower GST rates: Currently, merchant discount rate (MDR) charges on debit cards and UPI transactions of up to Rs 2,000 are waived off to promote digital transactions. This waiver should also be extended to credit cards and other digital payment options to create a level playing field. Similarly, the proposed 20% cashback of up to Rs 100 on GST on making payments made through Rupay and BHIM app should be extended to the rest of the debit and credit cards and all forms of digital transactions.

Additionally, government can also consider a 2% concession in GST rates to merchants accepting digital payments. With a large section of smaller merchants and the informal sector still resisting digital payments modes due to their higher transaction cost, the concession will act as fiscal incentive for moving towards digital payment modes.

Priority sector tag for bank on-lending to housing and MSME sectors: Currently, bank loans to HFCs for the purpose of on-lending home loans of up to Rs 10 lakh per borrower get treated as priority sector loans. This upper limit should be increased to at least Rs 35 lakh per borrower to boost credit flow to the affordable housing segment and reduce the liquidity pressures faced by the HFCs. Similar provisions  should also be made for on-lending to NBFCs lending to the MSME segment as a sizeable chunk of it is serviced by the NBFCs.

Naveen Kukreja is CEO and co-founder, Paisabazaar.com

This article was first published in Paisabazaar.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Asian shares at four-month high as hopes rise on US-China meet

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Asian shares ticked up to four-month highs on Friday on hopes the leaders from the United States and China could strike a trade deal and as the Federal Reserve appeared to have all but abandoned a plan to raise borrowing rates further.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.1 percent after a stellar 7.2 percent gain in January. Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.5 percent.

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping soon to try to seal a comprehensive trade deal as the top US negotiator reported “substantial progress” in two days of high-level talks.

Trump said he was optimistic that the world’s two largest economies could reach “the biggest deal ever made.”

The upbeat mood was chilled somewhat by the White House insistence that March 1 was a hard deadline for a deal, a failure of which would lead to an increase in US tariffs on Chinese goods.

“Analysts mostly remain deeply sceptical that a genuine trade deal can be done on this time frame,” noted economists from Commonwealth Bank of Australia in a note.

“We are less pessimistic since these negotiations are being conducted by senior politicians, not by trade bureaucrats,” they added. “Both sides also have an incentive, and arguably a growing incentive, to get a meaningful deal done.”

The optimism supported Wall Street with the S&P 500 ending Thursday with a gain of 0.86 percent. The Nasdaq jumped 1.37 percent on the back of a near 11 percent rise in Facebook Inc.

The Dow slipped 0.06 percent.

Over January, the S&P 500 rose 7.9 percent, its best monthly performance since late 2015 and its strongest start to a year since 1987. The Nasdaq gained 9.7 percent in the month and the Dow rose 7.2 percent.

Of the 210 S&P 500 companies that have reported fourth-quarter results, 71 percent topped profit estimates, according to Refinitiv data.

Equity markets have also been relieved by a change of heart at the US Federal Reserve, which this week surprised many by abandoning plans for further rate hikes.

Investors responded by pricing in a one-in-three chance that interest rates could actually be cut this year.

Yields on two-year Treasuries were down 13 basis points on the week so far, which if sustained would be the largest weekly decline since January 2010.

That in turn has been a drag on the US dollar, though it was off its lows on Friday. It was down 0.6 percent so far this week against the yen at 108.85, but found some support around 108.50.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was a shade firmer on Friday at 95.558 thanks in part to a pullback in the euro to $1.1446.

The single currency took a knock when Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann painted an unusually bleak picture of the German economy, saying the country’s slump will last longer than initially thought.

Oil prices held firm, with US crude futures gaining 22 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $54.01 per barrel.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Trump to meet with China’s Xi Jinping to try to seal trade deal, progress reported

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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US President Donald Trump said on Thursday he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping soon to try to seal a comprehensive trade deal as Trump and his top trade negotiator both cited substantial progress in two days of high-level talks.

Trump, speaking at the White House during a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, said he was optimistic that the world’s two largest economies could reach “the biggest deal ever made.”

No specific plans for a meeting with Xi were announced, but Trump said there could be more than one meeting. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin were invited to bring a US negotiating team to Beijing around mid-February, with dates still pending.

At the end of two days of high-level talks next door to the White House, Liu told Trump that China would make a new, immediate commitment to increase soybean purchases. An administration official later clarified the amount as a total of 5 million tonnes, effectively doubling the amount bought by China since resuming limited purchases in December.

US soybean sales to China, which totalled 31.7 million tonnes in 2017, were largely cut off in the second half of last year by China’s retaliatory tariffs and the announcement drew a positive reaction from Trump, who said it would “make our farmers very happy.”

While China has offered increased purchases of US farm, energy and other goods to try to resolve the trade disputes, negotiators dug into thornier issues, including US demands that China take steps to protect American intellectual property and end policies that Washington says force US companies to turn over technology to Chinese firms.

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said there was “substantial progress” on these issues, including verification mechanisms to “enforce” China’s follow-through on any reform commitments it makes.

“At this point, it’s impossible for me to predict success. But we’re in a place that if things work out, it could happen,” Lighthizer said at the Oval Office meeting.

Later, he told reporters that the US objective was to make China’s commitments “more specific, all-encompassing and enforceable” with a mechanism for taking action if China fails to follow through, but declined to provide specific issues.

Reuters previously reported that such an enforcement mechanism would involve a snap-back of US tariffs.

Asked whether the two sides discussed lifting US tariffs on Chinese goods, Lighthizer said tariffs were not part of the talks.

A person familiar with the discussions said a broad range of concerns about access to Chinese agricultural markets were raised in the talks but little progress was made.

The White House said in a statement that a scheduled March 2 tariff increase on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25 percent from 10 percent was a “hard deadline” if no deal was reached by March 1.

Trump said he did not think he would need to extend the deadline. “I think when president Xi and I meet, every point will be agreed to,” Trump added.

But Trump has vetoed multiple proposed trade deals with China, choosing to push ahead with tariffs on Chinese goods to gain leverage. Earlier, Trump said on Twitter he was looking for China to open its markets “not only to Financial Services, which they are now doing, but also to our Manufacturing, Farmers and other US businesses and industries. Without this a deal would be unacceptable!”

The US complaints on technology transfers, and intellectual property protections, along with accusations of Chinese cyber theft of American trade secrets and a systematic campaign to acquire US technology firms, were used by Trump’s administration to justify punitive tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports.

China has retaliated with tariffs of its own, but has suspended some and is allowing some purchases of US soybeans during the talks.

Chinese officials have said their policies do not coerce technology transfers.

The US tariffs on Chinese goods are just one front in Trump’s efforts to upend the global trading order with his “America First” strategy. He has also imposed global tariffs on imported steel and aluminium, washing machines and solar panels and has threatened to raise tariffs on imported cars unless Japan and the European Union offer trade concessions.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Oil caught between trade talk hopes, weak China data

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Oil prices held steady on Friday, torn between hopes the United States and China could soon settle their trade disputes and new data raising fresh concerns over China’s economic slowdown.

International Brent crude oil futures were at $60.87 per barrel at 0244, 3 cents aboe their last close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were at $53.70 per barrel, down 9 cents, or 0.2 percent their last settlement.

Oil futures received support from a broader financial market rally, which saw Asian shares hit four-month highs on Friday on hopes the United States and China could strike a trade deal.

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping soon to try to seal a comprehensive trade deal as Trump and his top trade negotiator both cited substantial progress in two days of high-level talks.

Yet prices were weighed down by a survey on Friday that showed China’s factory activity shrank by the most in almost three years in January amid slumping orders, reinforcing fears a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy is deepening.

Despite these concerns, traders said oil markets overall are being supported by supply cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which according to a Reuters poll pumped 30.98 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, down 890,000 bpd from December.

In Venezuela, meanwhile, US sanctions imposed on state oil firm PDVSA this week are keeping tankers stuck at ports and are expected to accelerate the supply drop in February.

“The latest US sanctions could directly halt around 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan exports to the US,” Citi bank said.

Much Venezuelan crude oil is rated as heavy and requires the light petroleum naphtha, much of it supplied from the United States, for dilution before export to refineries.

“An additional 350,000 bpd of Venezuelan oil output is at risk due to the lack of US dilutents, a result of the US product exports ban with immediate effect,” Citi said.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow