Month: March 2018

By-election results show that Hindutva has been reinvented

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The recent by-elections in Phulpur and Gorakhpur, which resulted in a decisive loss for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party candidates, continue to be held up as an example of a rising opposition, and a weakening of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

To be blunt, a BJP loss in Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Maurya’s constituencies is quite an embarrassment, particularly for the latter as he, and his predecessors have held onto to Gorakhpur for nearly thirty years. Thus, we cannot unequivocally state that the election results had nothing to do with the BJP’s appeal.  In all likelihood, there may be some aspects of fatigue or unhappiness with the party, and how they operated these two constituencies.

However, if we only listened to Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati, we would conclude that the “secular forces” have triumphed over the “communal” BJP, and voters have rejected Modi’s right-wing Hindutva agenda.

Nothing could be further from the truth. If anything, the elections tell us that the Hindutva strategy works quite well. After all, Yadav and Mayawati stole a page from the BJP to win these two districts.

Let me explain.

The BJP’s success in 2014, and thereafter, can be largely attributed to the party’s consolidation of all Hindus across all castes. The traditional view that the BJP only appealed to upper caste Hindus was shattered as the party made successful inroads into lower-caste communities. For the BJP, this was the only option to deny regional parties from monopolizing select vote banks, which until then, precluded the BJP from winning national elections on their own.

Grouping of Different Castes

Hindutva, as a campaign strategy, really boils down to unifying all Hindus by promoting a common set of policies and ideas. You can disagree with these policies, beliefs, slogans, and messages, but for the purposes of elections, this is the essence of the strategy. Accordingly, rather than appealing separately (and perhaps exclusively) to upper caste, Other-Backward Castes (OBC), Dalits, and so forth, the BJP leverages Hindutva to turn all Hindus into one giant vote bank.

As a result of this strategy, 2014 broke the previously held view that coalition politics were inevitable in India due to the regional parties, which divided the electorate along demographic lines making it hard for any one party to obtain a majority in parliament. By consolidating all Hindus, the BJP dented the political strategy of regional parties and put Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP), and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in a fix – their business model was questionable.

The Uttar Pradesh (UP) election in 2017 further corroborated the above view as the SP failed massively.

Learning from both instances, Yadav shunned a tie-up with Congress for the Phulpur and Gorakhpur by-elections. As evidenced in 2017, Congress was not, and likely is not able to bring any particularly Hindu demographic to the polls. So what is the value in an alliance with them?

BSP on the other hand can bring out the Dalit vote, which SP lacks. Hence Yadav decided to join Mayawati. Now this may seem obvious and simplistic, but we should look between the lines to see what this alliance really means.

A New Campaign Strategy

As noted, the previous strategy of parties like the SP and BSP to divide demographics and deny any one party from crossing the 50% threshold is no longer tenable when one party, the BJP, is able to appeal to multiple demographics at once. Instead, the SP, BSP, and other regional parties are trying to unite groups across Hindu demographics rather than split them, which is in fact the essence of Hindutva at a campaign level and what made the BJP successful.

Granted, SP and BSP will likely not draw support from upper caste Hindus, but that’s a separate point.  In by-elections it does not matter as much due to low voter turnout.

But the broader point is intact, the SP and BSP are learning from the BJP and using the same strategy – unite Hindus to win. Thus, whether Yadav wants to admit it or not, his so-called secular forces are starting to copy the so-called communal BJP.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Iran may shut down Telegram app for security reasons

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Iran will block Telegram app services for national security reasons, an Iranian news site Mashreghnews.ir  reported.

Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Head of the Parliamentary Committee, said that the decision was made “at the highest level” and the app would be replaced by a similar local system, the site reported on Saturday.

Boroujerdi, as quoted by the news site, said the decision was a response to what he called Telegram’s destructive role in anti-government protests that began in late December in which at least 25 people were killed and nearly 5,000 reportedly arrested.

The instant messaging app, with over 40 million users in Iran, was temporarily shut down during the protests in early January. However, some 10% of users reached it through proxies and VPN services.

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Why tier-2 and tier-3 cities are staging a comeback in real estate

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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After a protracted period where interest for real estate investment was concentrated primarily in the larger cities, we are now seeing a resurgence of the tier-2/3 story in India.

Many of these cities are seeing increased economic activity and infrastructure growth, to some extent reducing the outward migration to the metros. This is a welcome development, which will eventually result in a more uniform spread of real estate demand across the country, and reduce the pressure on the larger cities.

The value of residential properties in tier 2 and tier 3 cities and towns start from a significantly lower base, owing to cheaper land prices and also the fact that developers active there are more aligned with affordability. Buyers tend to be more cost-sensitive as economic drivers in the city may not be on a par with those in the larger cities.

Help From ‘Smart Cities’

That’s not all. Under the incumbent governments, a significant infrastructure deployment is happening in several of these cities. Quite a few have come under the Smart Cities programme, which bodes very well for their real estate markets.

With increasing demand, one can expect prices in these cities and towns to move gradually upward. Price growth will be higher and faster in cities coming under the Smart Cities programme. This would indicate that potential buyers should not delay their purchase decisions indefinitely because the lower existing base currently provides the ideal entry point, especially for price-sensitive ones.

The ability of a smaller city to offer good options for investment depends on the kind of economic drivers are already in place and if they are expected in the short-to-mid-term.

Definitely, accelerated infrastructure activity in a particular city or town indicates that price growth will be healthy going forward.

Investors need to study each market for its growth prospects, including rental demand and capital appreciation trends as well as expected employment growth. A number of larger players have now expanded into tier-2 and tier-3 cities on the back of increasing demand for quality residential offerings there.

Investors will always be driven by an investment rationale, as well as their own knowledge and preference of some markets over others. Investors with better capitalisation may wish to focus on the larger cities, depending on their risk appetite while others would be more interested in India’s reviving tier 2/3 story.

Larger Playing Field

That said, not all tier-2 and tier-3 cities are performing uniformly well, though it is true that supply will generally follow demand. In other words, cities that are performing well economically will attract more migrant population, which will need rental housing.

Simultaneously, local home-buyer sentiment will also be higher in such a city. Both investors and end users would have a very decent inventory to choose from, which enables them to fine-tune their final choices according to location, amenities and ticket sizes. At the end of the day, end users will purchase homes in their cities of residence, or in the case, of NRIs, in their cities of origin. Investors obviously have a much larger playing field.

 Anuj Puri is chairman of ANAROCK Property Consultants.

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ICICI-Videocon deal: CBI files preliminary enquiry against Deepak Kochhar and Venugopal Dhoot

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The CBI today launched a preliminary enquiry into the alleged deal between the ICICI Bank CEO Chanda Kochhar’s husband Deepak Kochar and Videocon Group chairman Venugopal Dhoot, two days after ICICI chairman MK Sharma denied any wrongdoing on the bank’s part in connection with the loan worth Rs 3,250 crore to the home  appliance maker.

According to sources, the preliminary enquiry will focus on the accuracy of alleged reports that Dhoot lent Rs 64 crore to a company handled by Deepak Kochar and other relatives, after Videocon borrowed Rs 3,250 crore from ICICI in 2012.

CBI files preliminary enquiry against Deepak Kochhar & Venugopal Dhoot in Videocon-ICICI bank loan case. @uttkarsh311090 gets the details pic.twitter.com/1iBvpYklJr

— CNBC-TV18 News (@CNBCTV18News) March 31, 2018

ICICI Bank was part of a consortium of the 20 lenders which sanctioned loans to Videocon Group, totaling Rs. 40,000 crore, for debt consolidation and to come up with oil and gas capital expenditure.

“The board has come to the conclusion that there is no question of any quid pro quo/nepotism/conflict of interest as is being alleged in various rumours,” the bank had said in a statement on March 28.

Dhoot, in an exclusive interview with CNBC-TV18, denied the Rs 64 crore transaction with any company or individual. He said he had already sold all his shares in Supreme Energy before the matter came to light.

He further denied rumours  of any transactions with respect to the latter company.

“Neither any investigative agency nor ICICI Bank has approached me with any kind of questions regarding the concerned matter,” Dhoot said.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow