5 Minutes Read

Gold could plunge to $1,000 quicker than you think

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

On Friday, spot gold hit a low of USD 1,077 an ounce and was trading down around USD 1,079.6 by mid-afternoon. And analysts are seeing further pain for gold to come in the short-term.

Gold’s woes continued Friday when its price slump hit a five-and-a-half year with analysts warning that the precious metal could plunge far faster than recently forecast and hit the USD 1,000 mark in just a few weeks.

Prices have come under pressure recently and are down around 5.4 percent in the last seven days. On Friday, spot gold hit a low of USD 1,077 an ounce and was trading down around USD 1,079.6 by mid-afternoon. And analysts are seeing further pain for gold to come in the short-term.

“I think we see more of a downtrend particularly over the next couple of months ahead of the market speculation of a September rate hike in the US, so I think you can easily see prices over the next two months breaching below USD 1,000 round level,” David Wilson, director of metals research and strategy at Citi, told CNBC in a TV interview.

Dollar strength

A number of factors have been driving gold’s weakness. Demand has been poor from China and investors are concerned about the macro outlook for the world’s second-largest economy.

On Friday, the preliminary China Caixin purchasing managers index (PMI) surprised markets by dropping to a 15-month low in July.

In addition, investors are expecting the US Federal Reserve to hike interest rates this year, pushing the dollar higher.

“As the dollar strengthens off the news that I see, I think one of the results is going to be that you’ll continue to see gold maybe get down near USD 1,000 or bouncing somewhere near USD 980,” Michael Gurka, founder and president of BruinHill Partners, told CNBC in a TV interview.

The gold sell-off saw holdings of the world’s biggest gold-backed exchange traded fund (ETF), the SPDR Gold Trust, fall to 684.63 tons, the lowest since September 2008.

Buying opportunity?

Analysts see USD 1,000 dollars as a key “psychological level” for traders, at which point the metal could be an attractive buying opportunity.

“Markets often gravitate towards “round numbers” such as 100 and 1,000 as can be seen across various markets. As the trend for Gold remains bearish which indicates weakness, the opportunity to see USD 1,000 as a target remains likely unless we see buyers entering the market at current levels,” Sandy Jadeja, chief market
strategist at Signal Pro told CNBC by email.

“If Gold does reach USD 1,000 there may be a flurry of buyers as a potential buying opportunity. Traders will be watching this level quite closely over the coming weeks ahead.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Abenomics needs to be ‘reloaded’, warns IMF

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Japan needs to reduce its reliance on a weak yen to reflate its economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned, as it called on authorities to speed up “high impact” structural reforms and prepare for further monetary easing.

Japan needs to reduce its reliance on a weak yen to reflate its economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned, as it called on authorities to speed up “high impact” structural reforms and prepare for further monetary easing.

“The Bank of Japan needs to stand ready to ease further, provide stronger guidance to markets through enhanced communication, and put greater emphasis on achieving the 2 percent inflation target in a stable manner,” the IMF said in its 2015 Article IV Consultation with Japan published late Wednesday.

Under current policies, the central bank won’t meet its 2 percent inflation target in the medium-term, or over a five-year horizon, according to the international lender.

After rising to 1.5 percent in mid-2014, core inflation – excluding fresh food and the effects of the consumption tax increase – has declined rapidly and has been close to zero since February 2015.

“Abenomics needs to be reloaded so that policy shortcomings do not become a drag on growth and inflation,” the IMF said. Abenomics refers to three-pronged economic revival plan launched by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in late 2012, consisting of monetary easing, fiscal expansion and structural reforms.

Deeper structural reforms must accompany further easing if the government is to achieve its inflation goal, the IMF stressed.

“With the exception of corporate governance and some progress on female labor force participation, structural reforms have not yet been in areas that could provide the biggest bang for the buck,” it said.

Read More: Japanese investors give thumbs-up to Abenomics

Speaking to CNBC, Kalpana Kochhar, deputy director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific department, said more vigorous efforts are needed to raise labor supply and open up domestic markets.

“On the labor front, we think there’s scope to increase the use of foreign labor. There’s also a need to use more flexible labor contracts so you can bring people into the labor force,” Kochhar said.

“Most importantly, for productivity growth, we think that Japan needs to do more to deregulate its agriculture and services sectors, possibly in the context of the upcoming TPP agreement,” she said, referring to the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership – a free-trade pact covering 40 percent of the global economy.

Japan’s economy has been on a rollercoaster ride over the past year. After taking a major hit from a sales-tax increase in April 2014, the world’s third largest economy appears to be staging a comeback this year.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth was revised sharply higher in the first quarter to an annualized 3.9 percent, up from a preliminary reading of a 2.4 percent increase, following a 1.5 percent rise in the October-December period.

Read More: Japan’s first-quarter GDP revised sharply higher

“The rebound in business investment is especially encouraging, but consumption remains sluggish and more than half of the reported quarterly growth stemmed from inventories,” the IMF said. “Leading indicators such as retail sales and industrial production suggest a continued modest recovery of domestic demand in the second quarter of 2015.”

The IMF, however, warns that risks to growth are titled to the downside.

“The economic recovery could stall on weakness in domestic demand. Wage growth following the spring Shunto (annual synchronized wage bargaining) round and spending of the oil windfall could disappoint. Smaller wage growth would imply larger multipliers from the fiscal adjustment in the pipeline, resulting in more depressed demand,” it said.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Copper faces long bear market: Goldman Sachs

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Copper is headed for a seven-year-long bear market cycle, Goldman Sachs said in a report Wednesday, slashing its medium to long-term targets.

Copper is headed for a seven-year-long bear market cycle, Goldman Sachs said in a report Wednesday, slashing its medium to long-term targets.

“It is, in our view, highly likely that the four-year trend decline in copper prices is set to continue through at least 2018,” it said.

Goldman cut its three-, six- and 12-month copper price forecasts to USD 5,200, USD 4,800 and USD 4,800 per ton respectively, from USD 5,500, USD 5,550 and USD 5,200. On a longer term basis, it cut its 2017 and 2018 forecasts to USD 4,500 a ton from USD 7,000 and USD 8,000 respectively. It doesn’t expect the copper price to rise above the metal’s marginal cost until 2020.

That’s quite a drop from the red metal’s rally in 2011 to a record high of over USD 10,000 a metric ton amid a surge in demand from China’s housing boom.

Prices of copper – the industrial metal used to make everything from cars to houses – have long been seen as a temperature gauge for the global economy.

Copper is the commodity most exposed to macroeconomic headwinds such as divergence of monetary policy, deflation — which leads to lower costs of producing copper — and deleveraging in China, which reduces demand, Goldman said. The industrial metal is currently trading at its lowest since the 2009 Global Financial Crisis levels.

China is copper’s largest consumer, but as the country realigns its economy and transitions from government spending and investment-fueled growth to private-sector consumption, demand has inevitably fallen, said Goldman.

Goldman isn’t alone in its dreary outlook for copper.

Deutsche Bank, in a July commodities report, has also cut its copper forecasts due to sluggish Chinese demand.

“The anti-corruption checks that the government implemented for large projects has delayed orders for cable from state-owned power firms,” said Grant Sporre, head of metals research at Deutsche Bank, in the report.

Read More: I see ‘makings of protracted bear market’: Gartman

Copper has also taken a hit from a drop-off in loan-related demand, as previously the metal was used as collateral for financing loans in China. Last year, authorities found that the same physical metal has been used to back up multiple loans.

Deutsche Bank also anticipates a copper supply hump in 2016 due to several new mine commissions, and that copper will “remain vulnerable to periodic bouts of ‘shorting’.”

For copper producers, Goldman’s recommendation is to “increase the hedging of their copper exposure, and investors either reduce long exposure or outright short position in copper.”

–Leslie Shaffer contributed to this article.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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As crude gets crushed, traders play for $40 oil

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Crude oil fell another 1.5 percent on Thursday, settling at USD 48.48, the lowest level since March 31. And some traders say even lower prices are ahead.

Crude oil fell another 1.5 percent on Thursday, settling at USD 48.48, the lowest level since March 31. And some traders say even lower prices are ahead.

“This market is headed to USD 40 before we go to USD 60 again,” said Bill Baruch, chief market strategist at Chicago-based iiTrader, citing reasons on both the supply and demand side of the equation.

In terms of demand, Baruch says the long-term picture looks bearish, with the International Energy Agency saying in a July report that global oil demand is set to slow in 2016.

“We have passed peak demand,” he said.

And when it comes to supply, Iran could start exporting oil after a deal with the US, and Saudi Arabia “has shown a strong commitment to a production war,” he wrote in an email to CNBC. “The second battle has essentially just begun.”

Finally, long-term sentiment is not yet bearish enough, he said.

“Look for a consolidation pattern, and just above USD 50 is a key sell target against a downtrend line from mid-June.”

Taking a deeper technical dive, Piper Jaffray analyst Craig Johnson notes that crude oil has recently failed a test of its own 200-day moving average. And with support at USD 50 violated, “we suspect a return to the ’15 lows is underway,” he wrote.

In March, crude fell below USD 42.85 per barrel.

Not everyone is bearish, of course.

“Right now, oil prices are in La-La-Land,” said Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors. “I think investors have been watching the news and not the fundamentals. Current prices just aren’t sustainable.”

According to Kopits, “The only way you could keep oil prices at current levels is if US shale producers can demonstrate growth in quantity at current prices, and I just don’t believe that’s true right now.”

There could be “more of a downdraft” in the near term, he said, but “I see WTI north of USD 60 soon, and possibly north of USD 65.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Caterpillar CEO: Commodities crush hits revenue

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Caterpillar on Thursday delivered second quarter earnings that matched expectations, but its revenue missed forecasts and the heavy equipment giant cut its full-year sales guidance.

Caterpillar on Thursday delivered second quarter earnings that matched expectations, but its revenue missed forecasts and the heavy equipment giant cut its full-year sales guidance.

Shares of Caterpillar fell 2 percent in premarket trading following the announcement.

In an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Chairman and CEO Doug Oberhelman cited several factors for the pessimistic outlook. “We’ve got an oil price cut in half, commodities are at their lows for quite a few years at this pointand global growth is slow,” he said.

Along with earnings, the company announced plans to buy back USD 1.5 billion in common stock in the third quarter. That’s in addition to the USD 4.2 billion repurchased in 2014.

In the absence of compelling acquisitions and little demand for capital expenditures, he said returning cash to shareholders in the form of buybacks makes sense.

“We have a lot of cash on our balance sheet. And our balance sheet is strong. Our debt-to-cap ratio is as strong as it’s been in decades. Having cash just sit on the balance sheet doesn’t do anybody as good,” Oberhelman told CNBC

Caterpillar posted second-quarter earnings of USD 1.27 per share, down from USD 1.69 a share in the year-earlier period. Revenue fell to USD 12.32 billion from USD 14.15 billion a year ago.

Read More: Watch out! These stocks could attack your portfolio

Wall Street had expected Caterpillar to deliver quarterly earnings per share of USD 1.27 on USD 12.62 billion in revenue, according to consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters.

The company backed its full-year adjusted earnings guidance of USD 4.70 to USD 5 per share, but cut its outlook for sales and revenue from its previous forecast by USD 1 billion to about USD 49 billion.

“I think it’s a function of a global growth rate of 2 percent to 2.5 percent. For us to drive sales and drive employment, we really need 2.5 percent to 3 percent. We haven’t had that,” Oberhelman said. “I’ve been through many cycles in my 40 years at Caterpillar and it will turn [around] at some point.”

Continuing economic weakness in China and Brazil and uncertainty over Greece haven’t helped confidence, Caterpillar said in its earnings statement.

As for China, Oberhelman told CNBC, “I think they’re closer to the bottom.”

Read More: US existing home sales near 8½-year high

On Wednesday, Caterpillar released its retail sales numbers for June. The numbers showed that machine retail sales were down 14 percent across all of the company’s markets. That metric has come in above 10 percent each month in 2015.

Shares of Caterpillar have tumbled close to 28 percent over the last 12 months.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos just made $7 billion

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Amazon beat expectations on Thursday after reporting startling quarterly earnings and exceeding revenue estimates.

Amazon beat expectations on Thursday after reporting startling quarterly earnings and exceeding revenue estimates.

CEO Jeff Bezos, who owns 83,921,121 shares in the company, made a paper gain of more than USD 7 billion as shares spiked nearly 18 percent after hours.

The online retailer reported a 26 percent rise in North American sales, year-over-year, with sales of USD 13.79 billion.

Similarly, Google’s stock climbed more than 11 percent last week in extended trading after the company posted quarterly earnings of USD 6.99 per share on USD 17.73 billion in revenue. The Google co-founders, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, each racked up about USD 4 billion that day.

Must be nice.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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As crude gets crushed, traders play for $40 oil

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Crude oil fell another 1.5 percent on Thursday, settling at USD 48.48, the lowest level since March 31. And some traders say even lower prices are ahead.

Crude oil fell another 1.5 percent on Thursday, settling at USD 48.48, the lowest level since March 31. And some traders say even lower prices are ahead.

“This market is headed to USD 40 before we go to USD 60 again,” said Bill Baruch, chief market strategist at Chicago-based iiTrader, citing reasons on both the supply and demand side of the equation.

In terms of demand, Baruch says the long-term picture looks bearish, with the International Energy Agency saying in a July report that global oil demand is set to slow in 2016.

“We have passed peak demand,” he said.

And when it comes to supply, Iran could start exporting oil after a deal with the US, and Saudi Arabia “has shown a strong commitment to a production war,” he wrote in an email to CNBC. “The second battle has essentially just begun.”

Finally, long-term sentiment is not yet bearish enough, he said.

“Look for a consolidation pattern, and just above USD 50 is a key sell target against a downtrend line from mid-June.”

Taking a deeper technical dive, Piper Jaffray analyst Craig Johnson notes that crude oil has recently failed a test of its own 200-day moving average. And with support at USD 50 violated, “we suspect a return to the ’15 lows is underway,” he wrote.

In March, crude fell below USD 42.85 per barrel.

Not everyone is bearish, of course.

“Right now, oil prices are in La-La-Land,” said Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors. “I think investors have been watching the news and not the fundamentals. Current prices just aren’t sustainable.”

According to Kopits, “The only way you could keep oil prices at current levels is if US shale producers can demonstrate growth in quantity at current prices, and I just don’t believe that’s true right now.”

There could be “more of a downdraft” in the near term, he said, but “I see WTI north of USD 60 soon, and possibly north of USD 65.”

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Is Asia startups’ new-found funding popularity a bubble?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The flood of liquidity puts the region on pace for 45 percent year-on-year growth, according to a report by KPMG and global venture capital (VC) tracker CB Insights.

Asia is racing ahead of Europe in the venture capital stakes, with some USD 10.1 billion flowing into the region in the second quarter of 2015, compared with USD 3.2 billion for Europe, new data show. But is it too much?

The flood of liquidity puts the region on pace for 45 percent year-on-year growth, according to a report by KPMG and global venture capital (VC) tracker CB Insights. While the region still lags behind the United States’ USD 19 billion worth of funding, Asia now attracts slightly over a third of the venture funding available globally, the report said.

“The past year’s been phenomenal,” said Vincent Lauria, managing partner at Golden Gate Ventures, a VC that specializes in early stage funding. “There’s a lot of opportunity here, and there’s a lot of what I would call innovation – people thinking differently because they have to solve problems that don’t make sense in the US, that don’t make sense in Europe.”

High-profile investments last year — including Softbank’s USD 250 million investment in transport app GrabTaxi and the USD 100 million Sequoia-led investment in Indonesian e-commerce site Tokopedia — drew investors’ attention to the region’s opportunities, and insiders say an avalanche of money quickly followed.

Asia has seen a number of mega funding rounds in the past year, with the top six deals in the region making up USD 4.2 billion, or 28 percent of all the VC money flowing in, the report said.

Solid interest in the region’s startups was reflected at June’s Echelon Asia Summit, which brought together startups and investors. The event saw a record 2,100 people in attendance, a 20 percent jump on 2014, with organizers shifting the conference to a bigger hall at the Singapore Expo.

Who’s afraid of the big, bad bubble?

But is there just too much money flowing into the Asian technology startup scene? It depends who you ask.

Some are more concerned about the valuations some startups are fetching.

Read More: Learning from Starbucks on job creation

“China’s probably a little crazy and overpriced,” said Dave McClure, founder of Silicon Valley-based incubator 500 Startups. “India’s starting to look overpriced. It’s pretty different depending on geography to geography.”

Gree Ventures principal Kuanhua Hsu echoed some of those concerns, noting that valuations for Asian technology startups have doubled or even tripled in the past three years, often without an underlying improvement in key performance indicators or an increase in revenues.

While Hsu doesn’t think that there’s a bubble per se, he is expecting to see a “gentle correction” in the Asian startup scene, especially among companies seeking Series B, or second round, funding.

While Gree, which focuses on early stage internet and mobile companies, has some USD 65 million earmarked for Southeast Asia and Japan, Hsu told CNBC that most of this money has already been spent.

“We’re starting to see companies reduce their valuation requests,” he said. “It’s not going to happen as a crash, but it’s going to happen gently over time.”

Seeking out opportunities

Some see signs of froth.

Asia is seeing a “returned exuberance to the marketplace,” said Saemin Ahn, managing partner at Rakuten Ventures, a USD 100 million corporate venture capital fund with roots in Asia, Israel and the US.

“There is a lot of unprecedented corporate and financial entity participation into the venture capital asset stack, and this is again leading to a lot of liquidity in the marketplace,” he said.

Read More: The tech breakout is suspect: Facebook, Amazon, Google, Apple rule

Many investors, especially in the e-commerce space, are unlikely to have the patience to see out their capital, Ahn said. He expects the increased liquidity to lead to a number of “micro-foldings.

“But he still sees opportunities in the region, particularly in big data and marketplaces for algorithms. He would like to see Asia-based players expand their reach to match that of their North American counterparts, a theme at this year’s Echelon, which devoted three plenary sessions to teaching Asian startups how to expand beyond the region.

Demographics are in Asia’s favor

Within the region, scale and demographics are favourable for startups, said Peng T. Ong, co-founder of dating website Match.com and managing director at Monk’s Hill Ventures, which mainly focuses on providing entrepreneurs with Series A, or first round, funding.

As economies hit USD 3,000 to USD 4,000 per capita gross domestic product (GDP), Internet consumption starts to crank up, and with the Internet sector making up some 5 percent of GDP growth, this is the sweet spot for investment, Ong said. Within the region, North Korea and Nepalmay be the only countries that aren’t in that per capita-GDP club.

Read More: As Asia ages, entrepreneurs rush in

Companies able to dominate Internet consumption in their segment have a great deal of growth potential, he said. “You can create huge companies if you do it right. It’s all execution.”

A note of caution

But Edith Yeung, a Partner at 500 Mobile Collective, a USD 10 million spin-off from McClure’s 500 Startups that focuses on early stage mobile investments, is keen to sound a note of caution.

Yeung says that while tech startups might be the “hip thing” at the moment, investors in Asia need to be schooled in the art of patient capital. While “there’s definitely tonnes of talent” in Asia, most startups will fail, so investors should not put their money down unless they’re prepared to wait it out, she said.

“It’s highly risky,” she said. “If you want to get to a point where there’s a good exit, take an IPO, or there’s some sort of acquisition, it takes at least 5-10 years.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Asian mkts fall, but Shanghai Comp edges up after flash PMI

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Asian stock markets fell at the open on Friday, on the back of declines in offshore markets and a continued slump in commodities.

Asian stock markets fell at the open on Friday, on the back of declines in offshore markets and a continued slump in commodities.

Spot gold slipped another 0.5 percent to USD 1,087.56 an ounce, as a steeper-than-forecast drop in US jobless claims rejuvenated the dollar.

A stronger dollar also took the price of oil down to its lowest since March 31. US crude for September futures settled down 74 cents at USD 48.45 a barrel, hitting a nearly four-month low. Brent crude was down 90 cents at $55.25 a barrel.

Overnight, Wall Street chalked up a three-day losing streak, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing about half a percent lower for the year, on the back of lackluster earnings from index majors such as 3M and Caterpillar. The S&P 500 lost 0.6 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed down 0.5 percent.

Mainland indices mixed

China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite index edged up 0.3 percent, staying on course to extend a six-session winning streak, even as the preliminary China Caixin PMI fell to 48.2, well below the 49.7 forecast from a Reuters poll and the 50-mark separating growth from contraction. The data also marked a 15-month low.

The closely-watched PMI takes on a new sponsor after HSBC’s five-year contract came to an end. Chinese media group Caixin, which focuses on business news, will brand the China data, saying it was part of a strategy to increase its financial information offerings.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index dropped 0.7 percent.

AIA Group, the world’s second-largest life insurer by market capitalization, retreated nearly 1 percent despite reporting a 21 percent rise in the value of new business for the first half of the year, driven by strong sales in Hong Kong and China.

Gaming plays continued to outperform; Sands China rallied more than 2 percent, adding to Thursday’s 7 percent jump, on the back of better-than-expected quarterly revenue.

Nikkei slips 0.4 percent

Japan’s Nikkei 225 tracked the negative leads beyond Asia to reverse Thursday’s gains.

Losses in the index heavyweights weighed on the bourse; Fast Retailing lost 1.5 percent from the get-go, while Fanuc and Softbank receded 1 percent each. Softbank, the telecom and internet investor, is gearing up for dollar and euro-bond issuances, according to a report by the Nikkei business daily on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund warned Japan that it needs to step up on reforms or risk slowing growth, “stagflation” and turmoil in financial markets, economists wrote in their annual assessment of the world’s third-biggest economy.

ASX flat

Australia’s S&P ASX 200 index nursed a modestly weaker start amid mixed trading among the banking and resources sector, while the Australian dollar shaved off 0.6 percent to USD 0.7308 against the greenback – its lowest level since May 2009 – from USD 0.7345 before the data release.

Among early-trade laggards, Evolution Mining and Newcrest Mining tumbled 7.9 and 5.2 percent, respectively, while Alacer Gold retreated 3.6 percent on the back of soft gold prices.

Market bellwether BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto trimmed losses to 0.1 and 0.6 percent, respectively, after falling 3 and 1.9 percent in the previous session.

Macquarie Group underperformed financials to tank 2.7 percent after the management said it will look to raise equity for potential acquisitions at its annual general meeting on Thursday.

Kospi drops 1.1 percent

South Korea’s Kospi index touched an eight-day low, but the won recovered from a two-year low to trade at 1,159.9 against the greenback. Earlier at the open, the local currency hit 1,162.1 — its lowest level since June 2013.

Hyundai Motor fluctuated near the flatline after announcing an plunge of 23.8 percent in second-quarter net profit from a year earlier due to a strong and increased competition.

Kia Motors slipped 0.5 percent after a 27 percent fall in net profit for the June quarter.

Memory chip maker SK Hynix shed 0.1 percent, a day after rallying 2.1 percent on the back of a share buyback worth 859.1 billion won.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

China no longer global growth locomotive: El-Erian

Mohamed El-Erian said Thursday he believes China can engineer a soft landing to its recent stock market woes, but the country’s economic slowdown is raising a multitude of issues.

“China is no longer a locomotive of global growth, and that has implications for companies. It has implications for commodities markets,” Allianz’s chief economic advisor told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.”

China’s main stock index, the Shanghai composite, recently plummeted 30 percent after running up more than 150 percent in about a year. In response, the government imposed a series of restrictions to stem the fall, including a ban on new initial public offerings and a measure preventing large stakeholders from selling their shares.

Read More: Dalio is right, China crash is ‘canary in coal mine’

At the same time, the Reuters CRB Commodity Index has recently sunk, with gold at its lowest levels since March 2010 and a rally in crude oil sputtering out.

Economic weakness is not limited to China, El-Erian said. Of the BRICS countries, only India is looking good, while he sees problems in China, Russia, Brazil and South Africa.

“If you look around the world there is no longer a dynamic source of growth,” he said.

Read More: Invest less in stocks, more in tech and private equity: El-Erian

The market is also starting to price in the high likelihood the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates this year, putting further pressure on commodities.

Higher interest rates would presumably draw investors into the U.S. bond market, pushing up the value of the dollar. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive to holders of other currencies.