Category: News

Oil may rise as Nigeria adds to supply fears: Survey

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Benchmark crude oil prices may rise this week as supply fears from Nigeria, Africa`s largest producer, add to disruption threats from Iran, CNBC`s weekly survey showed.

Nearly sixty percent of this week`s sample group, or seven out of twelve respondents, expect oil prices (New York Mercantile Exchange: CLCV1) to climb this week despite the risks continuing to originate from the euro zone, highlighted by S&P`s downgrade of nine sovereigns in the region including France.Two respondents forecast a pullback while the remaining three expect prices to remain unchanged.

“While the macro forces of a slowing economy are the overriding influences, the geopolitical risks in the short term are powerful enough to merit shorting the market a dangerous proposition,” said Roubini Global Economics` Shelley Goldberg. “The threat of sanctions against Iran`s nuclear program both in the west and the east, as well as concern of a strike in Nigeria, Africa`s largest crude producer, should support the markets in the near term.”

Nigerian trade unions called off strikes and protests on Monday, ending a major confrontation over fuel prices after President Goodluck Jonathan said he would cut them by one third, Reuters reported.

Although the deal did avert a threat by oil workers to shut down production, the main umbrella union in Nigeria`s second biggest city of Kano, in the north, said protests and strikes would continue there. Sporadic violence has been worst in Kano, where anti-government sentiment is currently riding highest.

David Kotok, Chief Investment Officer of Cumberland Advisors, has been warning on the supply risks of Nigeria since at least November. “Jonathan went too far on the gas price,” said Kotok, who has a bullish call on the oil market this week. “If he backs down, he is a weakened president. If he doesn`t, he will face huge unrest. He cannot win now. Situation is explosive and very bad for the oil importing nations.”

Should strike action disrupt the country`s oil industry, it would add to already hefty risk premium that`s been accumulating in the price of oil as investors attempt to price in the threat from Iran.

“Iran is a big part of what is happening in the crude complex right now,” said Peter Turville-Ince, Director at Compass Global Markets. “Improving U.S. economic data is also helping with the only real hindrance in the short-term being the euro.”

Though the weakness in the euro is restraining any move higher in the broader commodities market, Turville-Ince said “we remain bulls above USD 97.50 and even though we have not broken back above resistance at USD 100.10 we will become short term bulls again as Iranian tensions come to the forefront. Support at USD 98.50 should hold into any further weakness.”

The European Union – Iran`s second biggest oil customer after China, buying some 450,000 barrels per day of its 2.6 million bpd exports – is expected to agree to embargo Iranian oil at a foreign ministers meeting on January 23, Reuters reported on Monday.

“The screws are tightening on Iran and sabre-rattling grabs headlines,” said Peter Hickson, Global Commodities and Basic Materials Strategist at UBS. “A blockade is unlikely, but even threats will remain price supportive, as 20 percent of global oil supply flows through the Straits. Sanctions halting E.U. imports of 600,000 b/d are more likely, though they would likely result in a redirection rather than a halt to crude flows.”

Roubini Global Economics` Goldberg said although Saudi Arabia was capable of compensating for Libya`s 1.6 million barrel a day shortfall last year, “they are less likely to cover a potential 4 million barrels of Iran output.”

Downside risks included the lingering euro zone debt crisis and a slowdown in emerging markets. “Global oil demand looks flat for now,” said PFGBest`s Tom Weber but “scary talk about Nigeria unrest and Hormuz closure will still be at the forefront.”

Specific to the industry, RGE`s Goldberg highlighted a series of refinery closures both in Europe and the US eastern seaboard occurring against a backdrop of shrinking margins. “This will inevitably leave more supply without a home.”

Petroplus, Europe`s largest independent refining company, earlier this month began shutting down three of its five refineries, halting about a quarter of a million barrels of daily production, the Financial Times reported on January 5. Since the 2008-09 financial crisis, 2.6 million barrels a day of capacity has disappeared from advanced economies, according to the International Energy Agency.

“The Atlantic Basin oil balance will be tighter this year given refinery capacity losses on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean and the potential for long-lasting Petroplus refinery outages,” wrote Deutsche Bank`s Soozhana Choi.

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

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Rein: Why global brands fail in China

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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While China`s growing market has become a major profit center for brands like Intel and Nike, an unusually high number of global brands have failed to live up to expectations in the world`s second largest economy.

Best Buy and Home Depot shut their stores in 2011. Google, eBay and Amazon have been trounced by local competition. Walmart faces dwindling market share. These great firms, which dominate their home markets and are widely successful internationally failed to grab profits in China.

Why? I interviewed dozens of former and current executives in these companies, competitors, suppliers, vendors, and clients over the past year to find out what went wrong. What resulted from the interviews might surprise some. The commonly repeated problems of government protectionism, corruption, or price sensitive clients did not emerge as the major reasons for failure.

Three common themes emerged in my interviews that show hubristic mistakes made by the brands themselves rather than due to market conditions. Their mistakes provide a blue print for what not to do in China.

The first theme that emerged is that these companies did not localize business strategies and models enough to account for local conditions. They too often tried to transplant what worked in America to China with little effort at localization.

In Best Buy`s case, they tried to replicate the “big box” or large store retail strategy that succeeded so well for them in America in China as well. But getting reasonably priced large spaces in Shanghai, where Best Buy opened, is difficult because the city has one of the highest population densities in the world.

Best Buy ultimately opened a giant flagship store in downtown Shanghai. The store was selling far too many product lines in a location where consumers literally needed to walk up several stories to reach the entrance.

Seeing the mistake, local competitors like Suning and Gome opened small stores right next to Best Buy on the ground level with convenient access and sold only high demand, high margin products.

Instead of simply replicating their US business model, Best Buy should have opened smaller stores along with a robust e-commerce platform.

In China, revenue and profit per square feet of retail space is too low to justify giant stores selling low margin products. Brands need to think whether their traditional business models fit China and, if not, either skip entering the market or adjust accordingly.

The second theme that emerged was that senior executives sitting in foreign headquarters often ignore what local country heads, who are more attuned to local conditions, have to say. Or they hire the wrong country heads in the first place. One eBay executive, for example, told me that his seniors ignored the advice of local employees to run servers out of China and switched hosting to America.

“The day they switched to the US servers despite our protests, traffic dropped 50% because access speeds were too slow. We never recovered. It is a myth that local auction site Taobao won because they don`t charge fees. We lost because headquarters tried to implement what worked in the US, from interface design to customer service help,” the executive said.

Businesses need to hire senior executives who understand how to operate under local market conditions and delegate decision-making authority to them.

Finally, the interviews showed that many brands underestimated domestic competition thinking Chinese firms lack marketing and strategic ability. More Chinese firms are winning not by competing just on price but on product quality, innovation and branding. Walmart has seen market share plummet from 8% to 5.5% over the past three years, according to data compiled by my firm.

Their market share is not being taken by foreign competitors like Carrefour and Tesco but by large domestic chains like Lianhua that are opening small, neighborhood stores that sell key products consumers demand. Walmart is also losing out to specialty fruit and meat stores that sell high margin products to wealthy consumers.

Instead of adjusting to the local competition by shrinking store sizes or selling higher margin products Walmart is doing little to change its business model. As each year passes, it loses more market share.

China has become the must win market, so billions of dollars a year are being invested in the country. The reality is that many companies will end up failing there, or missing expectations, because they don`t localize their business models and management teams enough to compete with fast emerging domestic players.

Shaun Rein is the founder and managing director of the China Market Research Group (www.cmrconsulting.com.cn) a strategic market intelligence firm, and is based in Shanghai.

He is the author of the upcoming book “The End of Cheap China: Economic and Cultural Trends that will Disrupt the World” published by John Wiley and Sons in the U.S. He does not own shares in any company mentioned. Follow him on Twitter at @shaunrein.

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

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China slowdown is certain, but analysts differ on how much

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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China`s better than expected GDP growth of 8.9% in the fourth-quarter is unlikely to last, a number of analysts told CNBC, with the disagreement between the bulls and the bears now resting on how much of a slowdown the economy will experience in 2012.

Steven Xu, Director at The Economist Corporate Network, said he was surprised by the strong fourth quarter number, but was sticking to his view that the economy would slow to 8% in 2012 compared to 9.2% in 2011.

“8.9% GDP growth is not going to change the reality – reserve requirement ratio will be cut massively throughout the year,” Xu said.

Marc Faber, a China bear and the editor of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report went so far as to question the authenticity of the GDP data. “I question any number that is published by governments, not just in China, everywhere in the world,” he told CNBC on Tuesday.

Faber said further easing by China`s policymakers would only exacerbate the economy`s problems. “We have huge excesses, we have excessive credit growth in China and the excesses and the misallocation of capital – in my opinion – will become only worse,” he said.

Some investors have speculated that China`s economic growth in 2012 could slow to near 7%, a scenario that`s expected to lead to a “hard landing,” while those who are bullish expect growth to remain between 8 and 9% in 2012.

Alistair Thornton, Analyst at IHS Global Insight, said that while a 7% growth rate may seem respectable to the rest of the world, in China`s context it could be catastrophic. He points out that between the third quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, growth slid from 9% to 6.1% , leading to reports of around 20 million unemployed migrant workers roaming the countryside.

“Should China slide to 7% in 2012, it would likely be accompanied by significant dislocations in the export and property sectors, and could set in motion a negative growth spiral,” Thornton added.

Too Pessimistic?

But many analysts still expect China to avoid such a fate. According to Chris Probyn, Chief Economist at State Street Global Advisors, the latest numbers further bolstered the case for a soft landing and for growth of around 8.5% in 2012. “Just about everyone, now believes that we can avoid a hard landing,” he said.

Geoff Lewis, Head of Investment Services at JP Morgan Asset Management, said international fund managers have been too pessimistic in predicting a sharp growth slowdown. “There`s been nothing in my view to support this in the data as it unfolded through 2011,” he said.

“These were pretty decent set of figures as China`s figures have been really for the last 12-18 months,” Lewis said. “We`re seeing that China is holding up.”

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

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Do Friday’s European downgrades matter?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The chatter on Friday`s downgrades of European sovereign ratings debt is all over the place – from those dismissing it as old news (especially given that SandP warned back on December 5th) to those viewing it as part of a larger and consequential transformation of the international monetary system.

What follows is an attempt to provide a guide to the multi-faceted implications.

It focuses on three types of consequences: (i) those that are unambiguous and already reflected, albeit not fully, in market valuations; (ii) those that are less well understood but will become clearer in the next few weeks; and (iii) those that are consequential but where the analytics are still largely unknown at present.

The sovereign debt of European sovereigns was already trading at yields consistent not only with what SandP announced today, but also with more draconian downgrades – thus the view that the impact on overall yields and spreads would be contained.

Yet there are some differences between signaling an action and actually taking it. First you remove residual uncertainty about the action, including timing and scale. Second, you encourage others to follow.

Third, you impact the pattern of investment flows, especially those subject to guidelines and restrictions defined in terms of ratings.

All three are relevant for Europe. The net result has both a quantity and price angle: a decline in future investment flows into the Euro-zone, and incremental market pressure that, other things being equal, would be more persistent than would have otherwise been the case.

This speaks to a weaker Euro and recurrent volatility in sovereign spreads.

In introducing a rating wedge at the very inner core of the Eurozone, the downgrade of France in particular impacts Pan-European vehicles.

This includes the EFSF which the European Union uses to bailout countries and, in future, banks.

While there is some short-term uncertainty, the scope of these vehicles – and, therefore, their effectiveness in countering the region`s debt crisis – will be undermined. It also has implications for the ECB`s continued willingness to contaminate its own balance sheet.

That takes us to known unknowns, and they are consequential.

It is unclear the extent to which the downgrades will alter the function of the international monetary system over time. It is also unclear how material the incremental headwinds blowing out of Europe will be for countries already facing internal fragilities.

It is unclear the extent to which the downgrades will materially impact the asset quality and capital adequacy of banks and other financial institutions. And there is little clarity on the range of reactions on the part of companies, depositors and households.

Over the next weeks, months and years, we will learn a lot more about the consequences of today`s historical downgrades in Europe. What is clear at this stage is that the balance of risks is to the downside, for Europe and for the global economy.

Dr. Mohamed El-Erian is CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, the bond investment house.

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

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Will Friday the 13th spook the market?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Historically, Friday the 13th tends to be a relatively calm day for the stock market, with average gains of only 0.2% or less.

In three of the last five instances, all three major averages finished down on Friday the 13th. Should investors take this as a bad omen? Below is a look at how stocks traded on this superstitious day.

Dow since 1900:

• Average gain of 0.04% on Friday the 13th, and up 59% of the time
  
• The Dow ended down three out of the last five Friday the 13ths and down for the last two on 5/13/11 and 8/13/10
  
• Biggest Gain: 2.66% was on 12/13/1929
  
• Biggest Drop: -6.9% was on 10/13/1989

SandP since 1928:

• Average gain of 0.02% on Friday the 13th, and up 57% of the time
  
• The SandP ended down three out of the last five Friday the 13ths and down for the last two on 5/13/11 and 8/13/10
  
• Biggest gain: 3.34% was on 10/13/2000
  
• Biggest drop: -6.11% was on 10/13/1989

Nasdaq Composite since 1971:

• Average gain of 0.20% on Friday the 13th, and up 60 percent of the time
  
• The Nasdaq ended down three out of the last five Friday the 13ths and down for the last two on 5/13/11 and 8/13/10
  
• Biggest gain: 7.87% in 10/13/2000
  
• Biggest drop: -3.09% in 10/13/1989

Disclaimer

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

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What’s the next big thing in consumer electronics?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Pretty much every year, a big trend emerges from the Consumer Electronics Show. And pretty much every year, it`s heralded – at least for a short while – as the next big thing in consumer electronics.

This year, it`s shaping up to be Ultrabooks. The problem is: In many ways, the “next big thing” of the last few years hasn`t really been all that big.

The buzz at CES was 3D TV two years ago, but that`s still struggling to find an audience. Tablet computers were deemed the “it” last year, but beyond Amazon`s Kindle and Barnes and Noble`s Nook (which were both out long before CES), eReaders quickly died out. And Apple`s iPad (which wasn`t a part of CES) has greatly overshadowed most of its competition.

Will Ultrabooks underwhelm this year? It`s too early to say, but some analysts think it`s going to be a while before we see a new technology or advancement that lives up to the hype.

“I`m not sure if I expect to see a wholly new product emerge this year,” says Ben Arnold, director of industry analysis for consumer tech at NPD. “Reading the tea leaves, I feel like a lot of the focus will be on improving the stuff that`s already out there.”

Some analysts, in fact, question whether there will even be a next big thing – ever. The move to a more multifunctional mobile world is consolidating electronics – and that erects more hurdles for technologies hoping to open up new spaces.

“What I really think is the biggest trend in consumer electronics kind of argues that there won`t be a next big thing,” says Jordan Selburn, principal analyst for consumer platforms for IHS iSuppli. “What`s taking over the consumer market is the end of the single tasker – the end of the device that does just one thing. … We`re entering an area where software is the thing. You`ve got three or four general purpose platforms that can do anything, and they do.”

If Selburn and Arnold are right, the evolution of existing electronics will be critical – and will drive replacement cycles forward. The television industry continues to push 3D hard, but until there`s a critical mass of programming that can be watched without glasses, there`s not likely to be much consumer interest.

While 3D technology is certain to be a feature of most sets, the concept of the Internet-enabled TV actually holds more promise. The “connected home” has been a buzzword for years now – a premise in which appliances talk with each other and homeowners can easily do things like program their thermostat from remote locations.

The reality, though, has been expensive and hard to install. Advances in control techniques could be a breakthrough, however.

Apple`s Siri and Microsoft`s Kinect peripheral for the Xbox 360 are opening up new avenues to search for content and control devices, and could be installed in more electronics.

“I can definitely see that working its way into more products, and I think it`s in the works,” says Arnold. “I would expect to see some of that at this CES and definitely at the 2013 CES. … There are plenty of stories about people hacking Kinect to use with web browsers and such. That`s where the energy starts for these sorts of things.”

Much of the talk about this year`s show has centered around ultrathin laptops. Dubbed “Ultrabooks” by Intel (which is leading the charge for the systems), they measure only 3mm at their narrowest points.

Shawn DuBravac, director of research for the Consumer Electronics Associations, predicts that 30 to 50 Ultrabooks will debut at this year`s show – an impressive number for any market. Intel and PC makers hope the systems will offer a competitive alternative to Apple`s MacBook Air -and regain some marketshare from the tablet space.

Analysts aren`t convinced the laptops will succeed in that last objective.

“The vast majority of stuff that people do with their computers today is content consumption, not creation,” says Selburn. “And for content consumption, the advantages a tablet has – in terms of usability and cost – probably keep it the superior option.”

As for tablets, they will continue to evolve, say analysts – perhaps finally stepping out of the shadow of Apple. In fact, it appears that Amazon has led the way on that front, creating a device that doesn`t try to replicate the iPad, but offers a different set of features for a different audience.

“What needs to happen is these products need to find a niche or differentiate themselves,” says Arnold. “It`s hard to put out a product that`s kind of like the Apple ecosystem, but lacks the apps and costs the same amount.”

Apps seem to be driving the most innovation these days – so much so that this year`s CES has vastly expanded the amount of floor space dedicated to them. Once confined to a 4,000-foot section, the iLounge Pavilion now covers 75,000 square feet. The area was originally set to be 50,000 square feet this year, but was expanded because of demand.

“You`ve got a computer in your pocket, you`ve got a computer in your briefcase, you`ve got a computer on your desk – and pretty soon you`re going to have a computer in your TV – all running apps – and they`re going to do most of what you want to do,” says Selburn. “The problem is: How do you wrap up an app and put it under the tree at Christmas?”

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

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Iran oil tension boosts prices: The new Libya?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Oil prices surged nearly USD 4 per barrel on Tuesday morning on concerns about supply disruption ensuing from a possible confrontation between the US and Iran. Front month WTI crude prices reached a intraday high of nearly USD 103 a barrel. Technically, February WTI crude futures need to breakout past the most recent high of USD 103.37 for a drive to USD 104 and higher.

Brent crude oil prices remain in an upswing as well, hitting a session high of USD 111.58 per barrel, and a close above USD 109.59 signals an emerging bull run advance, according to technicians. For Brent crude, the next key level to watch is USD 112.70, the 200-day moving average.

Traders say Iran is the new Libya. Just as civil war in Libya caused crude oil prices to spike to near USD 115 a barrel in 2011, escalating tensions between the Iran and the West could cause oil prices to reach those levels again early this year. Iran is the world`s fourth largest oil producer, with production at 4.245 million barrels daily in 2010, according to the 2011 BP Statistical Review.

Earlier on Tuesday, Iran`s army chief warned the US Navy not to return an aircraft carrier back to the Persian Gulf after it was removed due to Iran`s naval exercises in the area. Iran`s threat comes after it test fired missiles in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend and the US formalized extending sanctions on any entity dealing with the Iranian Central Bank. The euro-zone nations should decide by the end of the month whether to place an embargo on Iranian oil imports.

“Some of the rhetoric can at times be part of a PR show but it can quickly spin out of control,” said Petromatrix energy analyst Olivier Jakob. “Iran asking a departing US aircraft carrier not to return is almost forcing the US Navy to send it back to the Persian Gulf.”

Iran has said it could shut the Strait of Hormuz, a major waterway that the EIA calls “the world`s most important oil chokepoint due to its daily oil flow of almost 17 million barrels in 2011.”

Iran`s currency is already feeling the pinch of a possible oil ban – with the rial falling 40% vs. the dollar in the past month.

“In this environment of increasing tensions and rhetoric, global asset managers are unlikely to give up their long exposure to oil … at least until we can have a clearer idea as to what the Eurozone decides on an Iranian import ban and the Iranian reaction to the Eurozone decision,” Jakob said.

He recommended buying the very back of the curve in Brent crude oil, buying December 2016 Brent at USD $90 in the current Iranian geopolitical environment.

Some traders said they`re hedging Iranian risk to oil prices by buying “out of the money” calls. Call options from USD 110-130 have been trading, said Paramount Options president Ray Carbone, on concerns about Iran as well as possible strikes in Nigeria.

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Stocks end 2011 with a question mark

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Despite wild swings, the SandP 500 seems set on finishing the year at just about where it started.

The surprise stumble in the economy after the Japanese earth quake and the noxious headwinds from Europe, as it tried to contain its credit crisis, were factors that made forecasting tough in the past year. As a result, many strategists were off the mark with their yearend predictions.

The SandP 500 edged up 13 points Thursday to 1263, and is now 6 points, or 0.4 percent above its final 2010 close. Its high of the year was 1370 and its low was 1075. The broader SandP 500 is the index strategists use to forecast. The 30-component Dow, meanwhile, is 6 percent higher on the year, and it added 135 points Thursday to 12,287.

“For all the volatility, it just seems ironic that the SandP is going to end the

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow