Category: Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin breaks from recent range to set more than two-year high

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Bitcoin rose to the highest in more than two years, climbing above $54,000, amid growing optimism that persistent investor demand through exchange-traded funds will drive the price of the largest cryptocurrency back to record levels.

“Bitcoin continues its ascent, supported by strong ETF inflows,” said Spencer Hallarn, global head of over-the-counter trading at crypto investment firm GSR.

The original digital currency increased as much as 5.2% to $54,438 after trading in a narrow range for more than a week. It last traded at this level in December 2021, and reached an all-time high of almost $69,000 the prior month.

Investors have poured more than $5 billion into nine ETFs that began trading last month. That figure takes into account the $7.4 billion that has been withdrawn during the same period from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which was converted from a trust.

“Bitcoin is approaching new yearly highs off the back of increased spot demand and momentum traders taking positions off the back of a breakout after a week of consolidation,” said Chris Newhouse, a DeFi analyst at Cumberland Labs. “Interestingly enough, liquidations are not too excessive for the current price action, and shorts who were liquidated were quickly replaced with leveraged longs.”

The open interest, or the number of outstanding contracts, for perpetual Bitcoin futures has seen a noticeable increase, Newhouse said. At the same time, short positions have been forced to be closed in the latest rally. That may be the result of fresh long positions in the market, he said.

Adding to the optimism around Bitcoin was another large purchase of the tokens by MicroStrategy Inc. The enterprise software firm, which has made buying Bitcoin as part of its corporate strategy, said Monday that it purchased another 3,000 or so of the cryptocurrency tokens this month for $155.4 million. It owns about $10 billion in Bitcoin.

Shares of MicroStrategy jumped around 14%, while other crypto-relate stocks also rallied. Coinbase Global rose 14% and Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital jumped almost 20%.

Other cryptocurrencies followed suit, with tokens for Solana and Poly each rising more than 5%. Ether, the second-biggest digial asset, gained about 2%.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Bitcoin climbs 22%, reclaims $1 trillion crown

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Bitcoin is riding high.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency has leapt 22% this year to $52,005, pushing it past a market value of $1 trillion mark for the first time since its record heyday of late 2021.

Its resurgence has electrified the broader cryptocurrency market, including ether and other digital coins, which has now exceeded $2 trillion, as per data from CoinGecko.

The sector has been bolstered by the US regulatory approval of several spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), from BlackRock and Fidelity among others, which allow access to the crypto coin vis regular stock exchanges.

The US spot ETFs added 60,000 bitcoin in the first month of their launch, more than twice the miner production in the same period, brokerage Bernstein said.

“The amount of flows far outstrips anyone’s expectation,” said Mark Connors, head of research at Canada’s 3iQ Corp.

Crypto trading volumes are also robust.

Total spot trading volumes on centralized exchanges rose 4.4% to $1.4 trillion in January, recording the fourth consecutive monthly increase and the highest reading since June 2022, a report by London-based researcher CCData said.

The resurgence of interest helped the largest listed crypto exchange Coinbase Global post its first quarterly profit in two years last week .

“The bitcoin appreciation is contributing to better spot bitcoin ETF flows, which is in turn driving bitcoin prices higher, and pulling other tokens higher as well,” JPMorgan analysts said.

$150,000 Bitcoin in 2025?

Many industry watchers say the outlook is looking bright at the moment, with investors buying bitcoin ahead of the blockchain’s “halving” – a preplanned process that reduces mining rewards in half every four years – due in April.

Gautam Chhugani, analyst at Bernstein, expects 2024 to be a break-out year for cryptocurrencies where bitcoin hits all-time highs followed by a peak of $150,000 by mid-2025.

“This optimistic outlook is bolstered by the expectation of an upcoming halving event and the possibility of interest-rate reductions,” CCData analysts said.

While bitcoin remain 32% away from its record high of $69,000, it notched an all-time high against the Japanese yen at 7,919,000 yen last week.

Beware Greedy correction

It’s not all crypto high-fives: There are some signs the market is being by investors driven by FOMO.

CoinGlass’ Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a scale of 0 to 100 where zero denotes “extreme fear” and 100 signals “extreme greed”, hovered at 72. Usually when investors get too greedy, it signals the market is due for a correction.

Riskier assets such as bitcoin could be threatened by persistently high interest rates; traders’ have pushed back bets of a rate cut to June from March following a string of strong US economic data.

“While we remain bullish with liquidity rushing back into risk assets, inflation being sticky over 3% remains a downside risk and would also mean increased volatility across markets,” analysts at crypto trading firm QCP Markets said.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Bitcoin weathers global market slump sparked by inflation jump

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Bitcoin rode out a surprisingly strong US inflation print that roiled global markets by dimming hopes for rapid interest-rate reductions.

The digital asset traded at $49,500 as of 10:21 am on Wednesday in Singapore, near the highest level in over two years and little changed since Tuesday’s publication of above-forecast figures on US consumer prices in January.

In contrast, the S&P 500 Index slid 1.4% — its worst CPI—day performance since September 2022 — while gold slumped and bond yields soared as traders dialed back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut before July.

Bitcoin showed “impressive resilience despite the overnight deterioration in risk sentiment,” Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Australia Pty, wrote in a note. At the same time, separate technical analysis based on chart patterns signals the possibility of a temporary dip to the high $30,000s, he said.

Sector-specific factors have been supporting Bitcoin, including the debut of US exchange-traded funds dedicated to the token. The batch of products from the likes of BlackRock Inc. and Fidelity Investments have attracted a net $3.3 billion since they began trading on Jan. 11.

Meanwhile, the so-called Bitcoin halving due in April will curb supply of the largest digital asset, a development viewed by many as a prop for prices based on historical precedent.

“We expect the market to take a short pause here after a spectacular four-month-long rally, before the upcoming Bitcoin halving takes over the narrative,” said Caroline Mauron, co-founder of digital-asset derivatives liquidity provider Orbit Markets.

Bitcoin has tripled since the start of last year in a comeback from the 2022 digital-asset rout. Wagers in the options market indicate traders are targeting prices beyond the record of almost $69,000 achieved in November 2021.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Bitcoin surges to $50,000 for the first time since 2021 on ETF demand

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Bitcoin hovered around $50,000 after briefly scaling the closely watched level for the first time in over two years, a remarkable comeback from the crypto scandals and wipeouts that cast doubt on the industry’s viability.

The largest digital asset rose as high as $50,328 on Monday in the US and was trading at $49,980 as of 7:40 a.m. Tuesday in Singapore. It has tripled in value since the start of last year after a 64% plunge in 2022. Bitcoin remains below the all-time high of almost $69,000 achieved in November 2021.

The wild price fluctuations seen since the introduction of Bitcoin more than a decade ago have long been one of the main attractions to speculators. While originally promoted as an alternative to the traditional financial system, the latest rally has been driven by optimism that last month’s US approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds is leading to greater mainstream acceptance.

“There is a lot of talk about inflow of money into this asset,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. “I’d also note that the momentum players are getting excited as well.”

Risk Appetite

The resurgence in crypto prices comes as expectations of looser monetary policy burnish the allure of riskier assets. “The appetite for risk has trickled over into digital assets as well,” said Chris Newhouse, a DeFi analyst at Cumberland Labs.

Shares of crypto-related companies also gained Monday with Bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy Inc. rising 11%, trading platform Coinbase Global Inc. increasing 3.8% and miner Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. jumping 14.2%. The positive sentiment could spread to Asian stocks related to digital assets.

Bitcoin has recovered all its losses since the May 2022 implosion of stablecoin TerraUSD, which set in motion a wave of failures that ultimately helped bring down Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange in November 2022.

By the time FTX went down, the crypto market was already months into a rout that also claimed hedge fund Three Arrows Capital and lender Celsius Network. But the fall of FTX, once one of the top crypto exchanges by trading volume, was even more damaging, with token prices stagnating as liquidity dried up.

Now with Bankman-Fried convicted of fraud, and the Binance exchange’s co-founder Changpeng Zhao awaiting sentencing for US sanctions violations and failing to implement anti-money laundering policies, crypto prices have moved higher as analysts see fewer looming risks to the industry.

ETF Inflows

Nine US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds debuted on Jan. 11, while the more than decade-old Grayscale Bitcoin Trust converted into an ETF the same day. The accessibility of ETFs promises to widen the investor base for the token. The new funds have attracted about $9 billion so far, while a more than $6 billion outflow from the Grayscale fund since its conversion seems to be losing steam.

“Enthusiast buyers bring in more enthusiast buyers pushing prices further up,” said Fadi Aboualfa, head of research at crypto-custodian Copper Technologies Ltd. “The cryptocurrency has momentum on the back of several green weeks and has a large chance of going up further when markets see weekly movements upwards of 10% (as we saw last week).”

Optimism about the quadrennial Bitcoin halving due in April is also filtering across crypto. Halving cuts the quantity of Bitcoin that miners receive for operating the powerful computers that verify transactions on the blockchain. The event is often viewed a support for prices based on historical precedent.

Aside from ETF inflows, sentiment toward Bitcoin is “typically positive” during the Lunar New Year holidays that are currently underway in Asia, Fundstrat Global Advisors wrote in a note.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Bitcoin hovers near one-month high on ETF inflows, looming halving

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Bitcoin held near the highest level in a month, supported by signs of steady inflows into a batch of US funds for the token as well as growing attention on the so-called halving due in April.

The largest digital asset was steady at $45,330 as of 9:33 am in Singapore on Friday after advancing about 7% in 2024. Smaller tokens such as Ether and Cardano also traded in narrow ranges.

Nine US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds debuted on Jan. 11, while the more than decade-old Grayscale Bitcoin Trust converted into an ETF the same day. The accessibility of ETFs promises to widen the investor base for the token. The new funds have attracted a net $8 billion so far, while a $6 billion outflow from the Grayscale fund since its conversion is now losing steam.

“Bitcoin appears set to resume its march up after the Grayscale outflows finally tapered off,” said Caroline Mauron, co-founder of digital-asset derivatives liquidity provider Orbit Markets. The “halving narrative” will gather momentum, potentially taking Bitcoin past $50,000 in the next few weeks, she said.

The quadrennial halving cuts the quantity of Bitcoin that miners receive for operating power-hungry computers that secure the network by solving complex puzzles. Halving is key to capping the supply of Bitcoin at 21 million tokens. Rewards drop to 3.125 coins per block from 6.25 coins in the upcoming event.

Previous halving events “preceded strong bull runs,” a team including DBS Bank Ltd. Chief Economist Taimur Baig wrote in a note. “There is a simple economic reason why prices should rise. As the reward for mining decreases, the price for mining output (namely Bitcoin) must increase to compensate and not trigger a withdrawal of computational resources by miners,” the team said.

Bitcoin remains about $24,000 below the record high the token hit in 2021, during a pandemic-era bull run oiled by easy money.

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Largest Bitcoin ETF’s slowing outflows lift some recent crypto gloom

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Slowing outflows from the $20 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust may help to stanch a two-week slump in the token, according to strategists.

About $4.8 billion has exited the more than decade-old Bitcoin portfolio — the world’s largest — since it became an exchange-traded fund on January 11, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. Bitcoin has shed some 20% in the same period.

The fund’s conversion from a closed-end format allowed investors to close out a popular arbitrage trade and sparked disposals by the estate of the bankrupt FTX exchange. The daily pace of outflows from the vehicle, also known as GBTC, hit a peak of $641 million on January 22 but cooled to $394 million by January 25.

“We’re starting to see a pattern of decreasing redemptions from GBTC,” Sean Farrell, head crypto strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors, wrote in a note. “We’ll certainly need to see a few more days of follow-through, but a mere slowing down of this AUM exodus would serve as a large boost for the market.”

The Grayscale fund began trading in its new format on the same day that nine other spot Bitcoin ETFs, including from BlackRock Inc. and Fidelity Investments, debuted in the US. Those funds have attracted more than $5 billion, while the net inflow into the 10 spot ETFs as a whole stands at about $574 million, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Shares in the Grayscale vehicle fell to a discount to the portfolio’s underlying Bitcoin holdings from early 2021 when the product was closed-end. ETF units tend to hug net asset value so the prospect of the trust’s conversion led speculators to bet on the discount disappearing, which has duly happened.

“Profit-taking on previous GBTC investments, made at a discount to net asset value last year, has likely been a major driver behind Bitcoin’s correction,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note. Such profit-taking “should be largely behind us, limiting any downside for Bitcoin from here,” the team added.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust “has been dominating trading volume, and has already solidified its role as a true capital markets tool for risk transfer in Bitcoin,” John Hoffman, managing director of sales and distribution at Grayscale Investments, said earlier this week. He added that “GBTC’s diverse shareholder base will continue to deploy strategies that impact inflows and outflows.”

Bitcoin surged almost 160% last year, outperforming traditional assets such as stocks, amid expectations that the US spot ETFs would catalyze wider adoption of the cryptocurrency by institutional and individual investors.

The token has been retreating since the turn of the year and trailing global markets as investors wait to see if the hype becomes reality. The group of US spot Bitcoin ETFs had the most successful ETF launch in history, going by both trading and flow metrics, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Bitcoin hit an intraday peak of $49,021 on January 11 when the funds rolled out before sliding to a low of $38,510 earlier this week. The largest digital asset was trading at $40,098.32 as of 11:19 AM in Singapore on Friday. It set a record high of nearly $69,000 during the pandemic-era crypto mania in 2021.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Bitcoin retreats to a one-month low as ETF-led enthusiasm wanes

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Bitcoin slid to the lowest since mid-December as the speculative demand for the token sparked by hype about new exchange-traded funds dissipates, leaving the cryptocurrency in the red since the start of 2024.

The largest digital asset briefly flirted with a drop below $40,000 before trading at $41,160 as of 6:30 AM Friday in Singapore, a decline of 3% in the past 24 hours. Smaller tokens like Ether, Solana and Polkadot also struggled.

Bitcoin surged 157% last year on optimism about the eventual January 11 launch of the first US exchange-traded funds to directly hold the token. Digital assets also got a tailwind from bets on looser monetary policy. Traders are now assessing how much money the ETFs attract and paring expectations for interest-rate cuts.

“This type of correction after a significant run-up is normal for Bitcoin,” said Greg Moritz, co-founder at crypto hedge fund AltTab Capital.

Nine new spot Bitcoin ETFs went live last week, including from BlackRock Inc. and Fidelity Investments. The $25 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust converted from a closed-ended structure into an ETF.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has passed $1 billion in investor inflows. The equivalent figure for the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund is about $880 million. Grayscale’s Bitcoin fund, which was created in 2013, has seen about $1.6 billion in outflows since it started trading as an ETF.

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Bitcoin ETF trades top $4.6 billion in ground-breaking opening day

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The first US ETFs that directly hold Bitcoin got off to a strong start, with billions of dollars changing hands in a historical first day of trading for the long-sought investment vehicles.

Over $4.6 billion worth of shares traded between the almost a dozen US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds on Thursday. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which converted into an ETF, saw about $2.3 billion in volume, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Meantime, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust—IBIT— saw over $1 billion change hands.

“This is definitely ground-breaking,” said Athanasios Psarofagis, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “There was no doubt demand would be strong for these ETFs, but the numbers across the board are impressive.”

Still, it’s hard to compare Thursday’s activity to any other day in ETF history. Typically, only one fund that tracks a new asset class begins trading on a single day. It’s unprecedented to see over 10 nearly identical funds all begin at once. But even singling in on one ETF indicates the sheer magnitude of trading.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust was the most heavily traded ETF debut on record. To be sure, the product has existed in its trust structure since 2013, and had a nearly $27 billion headstart in asset size.

Trading volume doesn’t indicate buying or selling or investor inflows. Because of the way the funds settle trades, net flows into or out of the products probably won’t be known until at least Friday.

When the initial Bitcoin futures fund began trading in 2021, it saw turnover of almost $1 billion during the entire first day. At the time, the futures fund debut was the second-most heavily traded fund on record.

Psarofagis added a caveat that much of the demand may be from so called “seed” money that is pre-arranged by the fund issuers. Signs of more organic demand, like from retail investors or financial advisors, may come later on as more broker-dealers list the funds on their platforms.

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Bitcoin-spot ETFs authorised by US SEC in Crypto’s big breakthrough

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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US regulators for the first time approved exchange-traded funds that invest directly in Bitcoin, a move heralded as a landmark event for the roughly $1.7 trillion digital-asset sector that will broaden access to the largest cryptocurrency on Wall Street and beyond.

The Securities and Exchange Commission, whose three-part mandate includes investor protection, authorized funds from industry heavyweights BlackRock, Invesco and Fidelity to smaller competitors including Valkyrie to begin trading Thursday.

The approvals also mark a rare capitulation by the SEC following opposition that lasted for more than a decade, ever since Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss first proposed a Bitcoin ETF in 2013. BlackRock Inc.’s surprise application last June, followed by an appeals court ruling that called the denial of a different application “arbitrary and capricious,” triggered a blistering rally in the cryptocurrency as speculation that US regulators would finally give their blessing to the structure.

“While we approved the listing and trading of certain spot Bitcoin ETP shares today, we did not approve or endorse Bitcoin,” SEC Chair Gary Gensler said in a statement. “Investors should remain cautious about the myriad risks associated with Bitcoin and products whose value is tied to crypto.”

At the crux of the SEC’s previous rulings against a spot ETF was the argument that no regulated exchange was able to adequately monitor Bitcoin trading in a way that would reliably detect fraud and manipulation. That contention was opposed by Ark, among others, which provided data showing a high correlation between cash trading and the futures contracts that trade on CME Group’s platform.

In reviewing the latest set of proposals, the SEC said it examined the correlation between spot and futures trading at a variety of time intervals and concluded prices moved in such a way that irregularities on exchanges such as Kraken and Coinbase were likely to show up in the futures.

“Because the CME’s surveillance can assist in detecting those impacts on CME bitcoin futures prices, the exchanges’ comprehensive surveillance-sharing agreement with the CME — a U.S. regulated market whose bitcoin futures market is consistently highly correlated to spot bitcoin, albeit not of “significant size” related to spot bitcoin — can be reasonably expected to assist in surveilling for fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices in the specific context of the proposals,” the order said.

The decision comes a day after a false post on the SEC’s X account claimed that the agency had approved the ETFs. The regulator subsequently said that the account had been compromised, causing the price of Bitcoin to fluctuate widely.

Bitcoin was little changed at about $46,300 following the approvals. The original cryptocurrency, which sank 64% in 2022, more than doubled in 2023 in large part because of speculation that the SEC would eventually approve ETFs that will allow investors to get exposure to the token in their traditional brokerage accounts instead of one of the crypto-native startups that have come under increasing government scrutiny following a series of sector scandals and bankruptcies.

“The approval means that both retail and institutional investors now have the ability to diversify their portfolio with crypto exposure without worrying about the complicated issues of custody,” said Campbell Harvey, finance professor at Duke University. “The ETF makes it easy to add to your portfolio.”

Crypto proponents have for years argued that a so-called spot fund that invests directly in Bitcoin would be beneficial to investors and would help bring the industry closer to the more highly regulated world of traditional finance. It also suggests a sort of milestone of maturity for the relatively nascent industry, where skirmishes with regulators came to a climax after the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire highlighted risks lurking in the industry.

The landmark decision comes after Grayscale Investments won a key victory over the SEC. A federal appeals court had overturned the rejection of Grayscale’s application to convert its Bitcoin trust into an ETF. The court called the denial “arbitrary and capricious” because the commission failed to explain its different treatment of similar products. ETFs that hold Bitcoin futures were approved in 2021.

The SEC’s loss to Grayscale was one of the reasons why the SEC approved the applications, Gensler said in Tuesday’s statement.

“Based on these circumstances and those discussed more fully in the approval order, I feel the most sustainable path forward is to approve the listing and trading of these spot Bitcoin ETP shares,” Gensler said.

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow