Author: Swapnil Deshpande

Ambuja Cements Q4 revenue likely to rise by 12.5% led by volume growth

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Ambuja Cements Ltd is set to report its financial performance for the quarter ended March 2024 (Q4 of FY24) on Wednesday (May 1).

In terms of revenue, CNBC-TV18 expects it to rise by around 12.5%, while EBITDA is likely to be up by around 15% on a year-on-year basis. Profitability is also likely to grow by 23%. CNBC-TV18 anticipates the bulk of the top-line growth to be led by volumes which are likely to show a growth of around 14%.

The realisations are likely to be down by around 4%, which is a slightly lower contraction in comparison to its peers as the company doesn’t have exposure to South India where cement pricing was very weak.

Q4 margin could expand a little bit on a year-on-year basis because of operating leverage and lower input costs. The profit after tax (PAT) is also likely to be impacted on account of higher depreciation as well as interest costs. Management commentary on pricing and demand scenarios will be key to watch.

On Tuesday the stock of Ambuja Cements declined by around 1.55% ending the day at Rs 619.90 per share. The Mumbai headquartered company currently has a market capitalisation of Rs 1,52,689.02 crore and has delivered returns of around 47% over the last 6 months.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Lok Sabha Election 2024: Baramati election outcome will decide the future of Pawar dynasty, says expert

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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With just about a week remaining for the third phase of the Lok Sabha election, a high-stakes political battle is in the offing in Maharashtra and Gujarat.

In Maharashtra, where 13 seats have already witnessed voting in the initial phases, the upcoming third phase will see 11 seats up for grabs. Among these, the spotlight is particularly intense on several high-profile constituencies including Baramati, Sangli, Satara, Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg, and Kolhapur.

The contest in Baramati, a stronghold of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), has become the epicenter of attention, as Ajit Pawar’s wife Sunetra Pawar is taking on Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule.

Senior journalist Sudhir Suryavanshi emphasised that the battle symbolises a deeper power struggle between Sharad Pawar and his nephew, Ajit Pawar. He noted that the outcome will have significant implications for the future course of Maharashtra’s political landscape.

“In Maharashtra, Baramati is the most watched battle in this Lok Sabha election. The battle is not between Supriya Sule versus Ajit Pawar’s wife Sunetra Pawar; the real battle is between uncle and nephew, that is between Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar. Whoever wins or whoever loses, it will have larger repercussions in state politics. If Ajit Pawar’s wife wins the seat then it is the end of Supriya Sule for carrying forward Sharad Pawar’s legacy, and then Ajit Pawar will be the main person who will carry forward the Sharad Pawar legacy. However, if Ajit Pawar loses then he will be completely cut to size in the state politics. In 2019, Ajit Pawar’s son has already lost an election, and now his wife is contesting, so stakes are very high for Ajit Pawar,” Suryavanshi stated.

He added that while the BJP-led NDA looks strong on paper, there is some kind of anti-establishment feeling among the people of Maharashtra because of the way the two parties (NCP and Shiv Sena) were broken. He highlighted that the NDA is looking like a divided house with both partners wanting a big pie in the entire share.

Meanwhile, in Gujarat, all constituencies except Surat are set for polling in the third phase. Voting will not take place in Surat as BJP candidate Mukesh Dalal was declared elected unopposed last week after Congress’ Nilesh Kumbhani’s nomination was rejected while other candidates withdrew from the contest.

Senior journalist Ninad Sheth highlighted the formidable grip of the BJP in Gujarat’s political arena, attributing it to both Narendra Modi’s influence and the state’s vibrant economy.

“On the central level, there is no political space in Gujarat, the political space does not exist. This is first and foremost a place where Narendra Modi’s personal connection works, secondly, Gujarat has a relatively dynamic economy. It is not easy to have two consecutive clean sweeps in a general election, that just tells you that there is no political space for any other party. I see a lot of noise from the opposition, but I do not see any substance coming out of this election. This is a one-way street, this is a one-way ticket to power for the BJP,” Sheth stated.

Notable figures such as Amit Shah and Mansukh Mandaviya are among the key contenders in Gujarat, where the BJP has historically clinched all 26 seats in both the 2014 and 2019 general elections, leaving the Congress without representation.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Earnings preview: Street expects Indian Oil Corp revenue to grow in Q4 but net profit may fall

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC), the largest oil refiner in India, is set to report its financial results for the quarter ended March 2024 (Q4FY24) on Tuesday, April 30.

According to a poll conducted by CNBC-TV18, analysts anticipate a 5% increase in revenues on a sequential basis, reaching ₹2.09 lakh crore.

Despite the projected revenue growth, there are expectations of a 5% decline in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to ₹14,700 crore, compared to ₹15,488 crore reported in the previous quarter. Additionally, the margin is also forecasted to decrease by 70 basis points to 7.1%.

The CNBC-TV18 poll estimates a 6% decline in the quarter’s profit after tax (PAT) to ₹7,571 crore, down from ₹8,064 crore in Q3FY24.

Market analysts foresee the marketing segment sustaining its performance, supported by favourable diesel margins. However, IOC’s refinery throughput is expected to dip by 9% year-on-year. On a sequential basis, it is expected to rise by 6%.

Brokerage firm Motilal Oswal expects IOC’s gross refining margins (GRMs) to stand at $15 per barrel, with gross marketing margins at ₹3.8 per liter, primarily driven by diesel margin. Nevertheless, sequential declines in petrochemical crack spreads might impact the company’s petrochemical division.

Contrastingly, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (HPCL) is anticipated to exhibit strong performance in both refining and marketing segments. Thus, a divided opinion is expected regarding the performance of oil marketing companies in the Q4FY24 earnings season.

In Monday’s trading session, IOC’s stock witnessed a 2.89% surge, closing at ₹176.50. The New Delhi-based company currently commands a market capitalisation of ₹2,49,592.89 crore and has delivered returns of approximately 100% over the past six months.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

IDFC First Bank Q4 earnings preview: Analysts predict 25.2% surge in NII, 8% dip in PAT

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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IDFC First Bank is set to report its financial performance for the quarter ended March 2024 (Q4FY24) on Saturday, April 27.

According to a CNBC-TV18 poll, analysts anticipate the bank’s net interest income (NII) to witness a significant uptick, projecting a robust growth of 25.2% year-on-year (YoY) to reach ₹4,502.2 crore. Moreover, sequentially, the NII is expected to climb by approximately 5%.

However, the profitability may take a slight dent as the profit after tax for Q4FY24 is anticipated to dip by 8% to ₹738.6 crore compared to ₹802.6 crore reported in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year.

However, broking firm Motilal Oswal expects deposit growth to be strong at 32.8% YoY, coupled with a sequential increase of 5.3%. Additionally, the firm anticipates a rise in loan growth, pegging it at 23% on a YoY basis.

According to Morgan Stanley, the bank may see improvements in certain key metrics. They anticipate net interest margin (NIM) to witness a positive uptick, potentially improving by 41 basis points. However, this optimism is tempered by expectations of a 17 basis points increase in credit costs compared to Q4FY23.

Meanwhile, the street expects IDFC First Bank’s asset quality to remain stable or improve on a sequential basis. In Friday’s trading session, the stock of IDFC First Bank rose by 1.56% to close at Rs 84.70.

The Mumbai headquartered bank has a market capitalisation of ₹59,964.28 crore and has delivered a negative return of around 1% in the past six months.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Lok Sabha Election Phase 2: Experts decode the key trends and issues in key battleground states

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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In the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections, 88 seats spread across 12 states and one union territory were up for grabs. However, the muted turnout of around 60% across seats could be something pollsters would be decoding over the next few days.

Karnataka witnessed the contest for 14 Lok Sabha seats, including crucial Bengaluru constituencies. In the previous elections, the BJP had secured victories in 11 of these seats, with the Congress and Janata Dal Secular (JDS) alliance winning one seat each. However, this time around, the dynamics have shifted with the Janata Dal Secular aligning with the BJP.

Senior Journalist, BS Arun, in an interview to CNBC-TV18 highlighted the intense battle between the BJP and the Congress in Karnataka, stating, “In Karnataka BJP and JDS have teamed up and they are fighting a fierce battle with the Congress. While the Congress has been highlighting the guarantees given by Siddaramaiah government and couple of other welfare measures dished out by them, the BJP has been highlighting the achievements of the Narendra Modi government over the last many years. So these two are the main campaign planks.”

Arun added that while the Congress may not have succeeded in taking on BJP in other states, but in Karnataka it seems to have succeeded in holding the BJP to some of the alleged wrongs that it had done.

Senior Journalist Vijay Grover stated that the BJP wants Karnataka to continue the mandate it had given in 2019. He highlighted that the biggest challenge for BJP was anti-incumbency, which the party seems to have mitigated by reshuffling candidates.

“No doubt this election is about Prime Minister Narendra Modi versus the rest of I.N.D.I.A. But in constituencies like Mysore, where they’ve been able to stem anti-incumbency against Pratap Simha by replacing him with a new candidate. That is something which certainly has helped. Similarly, in the second phase, there are some constituencies where we’ve seen a reshuffle of candidates who were there in 2019 and are not there now. So very clearly this is actually a reiteration, I would say, as far as the BJP is concerned that it wants the mandate to continue forward, what the Karnataka people had given to it in 2019. On the other hand, the Congress is banking on the five guarantees that it had launched last year, which it feels that will be able to give it some breathing space in terms of being able to counter the BJP in this particular election,” Grover stated.

In the Hindi heartland, encompassing Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, and Chhattisgarh, 35 seats were contested. The BJP-led NDA had secured victory in 34 of these 36 seats in the previous Lok Sabha elections. The Congress had won only one seat in Bihar and BSP had won in Amroha.

However, senior journalist Sharat Pradhan highlighted the BJP’s struggles in maintaining its stronghold in the Hindi heartland. He stated, “The changes that BJP has made in Uttar Pradesh candidates is not because of anti-incumbency, it is because of extraneous reasons, and that is what is giving BJP a tough time on more than one seat this time. I can see BJP going in for a tough call even in Ghaziabad, where they removed General VK Singh, the former Indian Army Chief, who was also the minister at the Centre for no rhyme or reason, and that provoked a lot of rajputs in the region to rise up in arms against the BJP. In Meerut BJP is showing how pathetic its condition is because they couldn’t get a candidate. They realised that Meerut is an important constituency in that region, so they had to hand pick somebody like Arun Govil, who is a lost and forgotten actor, who did a lead role as Ram in Ramayan way back in 1987-88. Because the Ram Mandir is not working, and there BJP had to take recourse to getting somebody who’s played the role of Ram. That reflects how the condition of the BJP is in these places.”

In Southern India, while the Congress and the Left are aligned in the I.N.D.I.A bloc, they are contesting against each other in Kerala. The BJP, despite never securing a Lok Sabha seat in the state is optimistic about its electoral prospects.

Key battlegrounds in Kerala included Wayanad, where Rahul Gandhi contested against CPI’s Annie Raja and BJP’s K Surendran, and Thiruvananthapuram, witnessed a three-way battle among Shashi Tharoor, Rajeev Chandrasekhar, and Panniyan Raveendran.

Senior Journalist MG Radhakrishnan noted that Kerala has never attracted so much attention in Lok Sabha election as it has this year. He highlighted that for BJP, Kerala has always remained completely inaccessible and that is why Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Kerala at least six times in the last four months. He further highlighted that for Congress Kerala is a state where it got maximum number of seats in 2019 election. And so to maximise their seats Kerala is of extreme importance to Congress.

Meanwhile, 8 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra also went to polls. A total of 204 candidates were in the fray. Three seats saw a direct face-off between the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde and the other faction led by Uddhav Thackeray.

Moreover, in Assam 5 constituencies went to polls today including large parts of the Barak Valley which borders Bangladesh.

Watch accompanying video for entire discussion.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

US-China Relations: Biden doesn’t want a third war, says strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent visit to Beijing has sparked speculation and analysis, particularly in the context of escalating global tensions. In the backdrop of ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the West Asia, Blinken’s trip symbolises President Biden’s strategic diplomatic outreach to China, aiming to stabilise the complex relations between the two superpowers.

Strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney emphasised the significance of Biden’s approach, citing America’s current engagements in multiple theatres of conflict. “The fact is that Biden, because of America’s preoccupation with two wars—the war in Ukraine, and also America’s growing involvement in the conflict in the Middle East—looks overextended,” Chellaney remarked. “It doesn’t want a third war to erupt. If China were to attack Taiwan, that would result in America’s direct involvement in a war with China. So to dissuade Xi Jinping from attacking Taiwan, Biden is relying more on diplomacy than on deterrence.”

Blinken’s arrival in China, his second visit within a year, was met with a lukewarm reception by Chinese authorities. This visit comes at a critical juncture as both nations endeavour to enhance communication channels and navigate contentious issues, including China’s support for Russia, its activities in the South China Sea, and its stance towards Taiwan.

Chellaney highlighted the evolving dynamics between China and Russia, characterising their alliance as a significant challenge for Washington. “The China-Russia alliance is the worst strategic nightmare for Washington,” Chellaney asserted. “This war in Ukraine is bringing China and Russia closer together.” He further pointed out Secretary Blinken’s recent remarks attributing China as the primary contributor to Russia’s defense industrial base, indicating a concerning collaboration between the two powers.

Chellaney, further highlighted that it’s evident that China’s support for Russia’s military endeavours, particularly in Ukraine, aims to constrain US involvement in global conflicts and potentially pave the way for assertive actions, such as the absorption of Taiwan. “Xi Jinping has been saying quite openly… that China will absorb Taiwan,” Chellaney revealed, underscoring the gravity of the situation.

Blinken’s visit coincided with significant legislative action in the United States, as the Senate passed a $95 billion emergency aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The package was signed into law by President Biden on Wednesday. Additionally, the legislation includes provisions that could lead to the ban of the popular Chinese-owned app TikTok unless it separates from its parent company ByteDance Ltd.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow