Lok Sabha election Phase 1: 102 seats to go to polls, BJP contested 56 of them in 2019 at 70% success rate
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
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Summary
Spotlight on Phase 1 seats: It was a race to the finish between the BJP & Congress on 37 seats in 2019. BJP won 31 of them, while Congress finished runners up. The Congress also won only 3 out of every 10 seats it contested.
The Indian Meteorological Department has issued a grim forecast for the upcoming summer, anticipating scorching temperatures across the country. This prediction is attributed to the El Niño phenomenon, known for its role in driving warmer weather patterns globally. However, amidst this meteorological concern, another heatwave is sweeping the nation – the fervour of election season.
As political parties gear up for the impending electoral battle, the atmosphere is charged with anticipation and energy.
Welcome to the Great Election Theatre
India, home to the world’s largest electoral process, is set to witness 544 constituencies exercising their democratic right across seven phases.
The climax of this 44-day electoral marathon across April, May, and June is slated for June 4.
Phase 1
Phase one, which begins on April 19, is the largest where 102 constituencies across 17 states & 4 UTs go to polls.
2 out of the 102 up for polling next Friday are newly created constituencies – Kaziranga & Sonitpur.
How parties are stacking up?
- The incumbent BJP is contesting 77 out of these 102 seats.
- The principal challenger Congress has candidates in 56 constituencies.
But, the BJP is not the one contesting the highest number of seats in Phase
The Elephant, ahead of the Lotus & the Hand
Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party is contesting 86 seats, including all 39 seats in Tamil Nadu. One of the six national parties in India, the BSP had contested 383 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 and won 10. It’s pan-India vote share stood at 3.66%.
102 seats in Phase 1 |
Seats being contested |
BSP |
86 |
BJP |
77 |
Congress |
56 |
AIADMK# |
36 |
DMK |
22 |
#2 ally candidates on ADMK symbol
The DMK is contesting 22 seats in Tamil Nadu, compared to 20 in 2019. The Stalin-led party has left the remaining seats for other alliance partners, including the Congress & Left. It had swept the polls last time, winning all contested seats. 3 ally candidates who had contested on the DMK symbol, had won as well.
The AIADMK, post its break-up with the BJP is contesting 32 out of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu. 2 candidates belonging to smaller allies is contesting on the ‘Two Leaves’ symbol. The Edappadi Palanisamy-led party is contesting Andaman & Puducherry as well.
BJP & Congress: 2019 vs Now
In 2019, the BJP had contested only 56 of the seats that go to polls in Phase 1. If we exclude the new seats, the BJP had not contested 44% of the 100 seats, leaving them for their allies.
The Congress had contested 63 seats.
100 Phase 1 Seats* |
Seats Contested In 2019 |
Seats Won |
BJP |
56 |
39 |
Congress |
63 |
15 |
*Sonitpur & Kaziranga LS seats didn’t exist in 2019
The Grand Old Party won only three out of every 10 seats it contested. The BJP won 7 out of every 10. Leave out Tamil Nadu out of the equation, where the Congress won 9 out of the 10 seats it contested (courtesy of an alliance with DMK), and their success rate is even more dismal. A mere 11%.
As per the analysis of the 100 Lok Sabha seats in Phase 1, BJP’s average vote share when it came to the 39 winning seats stood at 56%. The Congress’ average vote share in the 15 seats it won stands at 51%.
100 Phase 1 Seats |
Seats Won In 2019 |
Avg Vote Share (In Seats Won) |
BJP |
39 |
56% |
DMK* |
23 |
55% |
Congress |
15 |
51% |
*Includes seats where DMK lent its party symbol as well
Phase 1: 8 UP seats in the fray
The Samajwadi Party is contesting seven out of the eight UP Lok Sabha constituencies from Western UP that go to polls on April 19. Alliance partner Congress is contesting the Saharanpur seat.
In 2019, Akhilesh Yadav’s party was in an alliance with the BSP & Jayant Chaudhary’s RLD. It had contested four of these eight seats and won two. The Bahujan Samaj Party had contested three and won all. RLD came runners-up in the sole seat it contested.
The BJP-Congress Match-Up
In 2019, it was a race to the podium for the BJP & Congress on 37 seats out of the 102 Lok Sabha seats that vote in Phase 1.
Race To The Finish |
BJP |
Congress |
Seats Won |
31 |
6 |
Success Rate |
84% |
16% |
The Congress also contested against the BJP in 6 of the 8 Uttar Pradesh seats that go to polls in Phase 1. However, it ended up with a vote share of 7% and less.
3 West Bengal seats go to polls in Phase 1. The BJP had won all 3, while the Trinamool Congress finished as runners-up. The Congress came 4th in all 3 seats, polling less than 2% votes.
Fast forward to 2024, the BJP & Congress candidates would be facing each other and candidates from other parties in 48 seats.
102 Phase 1 Seats |
BJP, Cong In Contest |
Arunachal |
2 |
Assam |
4 |
MP |
6 |
Rajasthan |
10 |
Tamil Nadu |
7 |
Uttarakhand |
5 |
Parting shot
- Udhampur (J&K) is the northernmost seat in this phase. Kanniyakumari (Tamil Nadu) is the southernmost. The distance between the two is close to 4,000 km.
- Former Tamil Nadu CM and expelled ADMK leader O Paneerselvam is contesting as an Independent from Theni. As per the candidate list, there are 5 other candidates with the name O Paneerselvam, with spelling variations.
- Karur Lok Sabha seat has the highest number of candidates (54) in Phase 1. 46 of them are Independents.
- Dibrugarh, where Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal is contesting has the lowest number of candidates (3).
- Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi is not just the name of an opposition alliance, but that of a registered unrecognised political party as well.
- In Tamil Nadu, RUPPs like the Anti-Corruption Dynamite Party & Viron Ke Vir Indian Party are in the electoral fray as well.
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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow