Tag: RBi policy

RBI Monetary Policy 2024: Interest rates unchanged for the seventh time in a row

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has left its key lending rate (repo rate) unchanged at 6.5%, in line with market watchers’ and economists’ expectations. This was the seventh straight instance of the policy rates left unchanged by India’s central bank.

A CNBC-TV18 poll had expected the RBI MPC to maintain a status quo.

The decision to keep the rates unchanged was taken with a 5:1 majority. The RBI MPC decided by a 5:1 majority to remain focused on “withdrawal of accommodation”.

The RBI MPC also left the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) and Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rates unchanged at 6.75% and 6.25%, respectively.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18’s Shereen Bhan on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) 2024 at Davos in January this year, governor Shaktikanta Das had quashed hopes of an early rate cut. The governor had explained that price stability is the bedrock for sustainable growth, and a premature pivot in policy can prove costly for the economy.

The RBI has maintained India’s fiscal year 2025 GDP growth target at 7%. The governor mentioned that the impact of above-normal temperatures warrants monitoring.

The governor during his speech highlighted that while inflation is moving closer to target, the last mile of inflation is turning out to be challenging. As a result, the central bank has left the Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) forecast unchanged at 4.5%.

“Two years ago around this time, when CPI inflation peaked at 7.8% in April 2022, the Elephant in the room was inflation, the elephant has gone out for a walk and appears to be returning to the forest. We would like the elephant to return to the forest and remain there on a durable basis,” the central bank Governor said.

“The policy is broadly on expected lines. Things I would like to borrow from the governor’s speech is that liquidity management is nimble and flexible. I think we could witness in the last few weeks that the liquidity is not constrained in the system. Whenever liquidity is excess, absorption was done and when the shortfall was noticed, injection was done. What the governor has assured us in terms of being nimble and flexible is reassuring,” SBI Managing Director CS Setty said.

The RBI governor also warned that the government risks in advanced economies could erupt abruptly and that emerging economies with rising debt could be vulnerable.

Catch the live updates on RBI MPC here.

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RBI Monetary Policy: Experts highlight key takeaways

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), on February 8, decided to leave the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the sixth straight time. The decision was in line with Street expectations.

Ashwini Kumar Tewari, MD of State Bank of India (SBI) said, the policy is on expected lines. “The industry, banks, and everyone else want policy stability and predictability above all else and this policy is supportive of it,” he added.

Also Read | RBI Monetary Policy: FY24 inflation forecast unchanged at 5.4%; FY25 estimate at 4.5%

Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, called it a “fairly balanced policy.”

Sanjay Parekh, Founder & CIO of Sohum Asset Managers concurred with Bhardwaj, while noting concerns voiced by the RBI governor Shaktikanta Das regarding inflation uncertainty and volatility. The governor’s tone suggested that a change in stance and rate cuts might be on the horizon if inflation stabilises around 4%.

Also Read | RBI MPC Meet: Rate sensitives mixed; PSU banks rally, auto, realty stocks underperform

According to Kaushik Das, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank, any change in stance could signal RBI‘s readiness to cut rates, which it might not want to indicate at this point.

However, Shobhit Mehrotra, Head Fixed Income at HDFC Asset Management was disappointed by the policy outcome as he believes the opportunity to provide better liquidity support to the system was missed.

Also Read | Banks must tell borrowers the entire cost of a loan including fees and other charges: RBI

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group CEA, SBI said, “One interesting take from the policy is, basically, I call it a competitive forecasting. Because last two years, the RBI’s GDP forecast was lower than the government. This year, the RBI has straightaway put the forecast for FY25 at 7%. With inflation at 4.5%, this gives the government much leeway to have a higher nominal GDP target. So this means that the next year fiscal deficit target could actually be lower than 5.1%.”

Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist, HSBC said, “One takeaway is that the RBI is no mode urgently to ease monetary policy and different parts of the policy gave the same message.”

For more, watch the accompanying video

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Banks must tell borrowers the entire cost of a loan including fees and other charges: RBI

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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RBI promises new framework to curb undue influence in bank lending

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will soon come out with a unified regulatory framework to regulate connected lending for the entities it regulates. In essence, the move is aimed at regulating and curbing any undue influence a persons connected with a bank or lender, like those a director or key managerial personnel (KMP) of the lender might be able to exert on the terms or quantum of loans granted to entities related or connected to that person.

“The extant guidelines on the issue are limited in scope and are not applicable uniformly to all regulated entities,” RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said as he announced the central bank’s monetary policy following a 2-day meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee.

Governor Das added, “It has been decided to come out with a unified regulatory framework on connected lending for all regulated entities of the Reserve Bank. Connected lending or lending to persons who are in a position to control or influence the decision of a lender can be of concern, if the lender does not maintain an arm’s length relationship with such borrowers… This will further strengthen the pricing and management of credit by regulated entities.”

A draft circular on this regulatory framework will be issued in the next few days.

The RBI has been trying to align rules governing NBFCs and other lending entities with the rules governing banks, in areas like compliance, provisioning rules, appointment of a Chief Risk Officer etc.

The matter of “connected lending” has been a constant concern for the RBI and this is why it has been consistently against granting banking licences to corporate entities. The fear is that corporate entities with such a licence might misuse the power to grant loans by offering group companies, related parties, affiliated entities, or friends and family favourable terms on loans or credit lines.

Governor Das also clarified that connected lending has nothing to do with interconncted lending, or the manner in which banks lend to non-banking finance companies (NBFCs).

Read more on RBI Monetary Policy here

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No OTP needed for UPI auto payments up to ₹1 lakh for these services

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday, December 8, increased the limit for e-mandate, popularly known as auto-debit, to ₹1 lakh per transaction. This can be used for buying mutual funds via systematic investment plans (SIP) as well as to pay insurance premiums regularly. It can be used for credit card payments too.

“The system has stabilised, but in categories such as subscription to mutual funds, payment of insurance premium and credit card bill payments, where the transaction sizes are more than ₹15,000, a need to enhance the limit has been expressed as adoption has been lagging,” said RBI in a statement.

Understanding e-mandate

E-mandate is a digital payment option catering to retail users. It allows for seamless recurring payments with the user’s authorisation. Merchants can obtain consent from users for regular payments, enabling auto-debit mandates on credit or debit cards, domestically or internationally.

The framework for processing e-mandates for recurring transactions was introduced in August 2019 to balance the safety and security of digital transactions with customer convenience.

The number of e-mandates registered currently stands at 8.5 crore, processing nearly ₹2,800 crore of transactions per month.

Decoding UPI AutoPay

The UPI Automatic Payment feature is known as UPI AutoPay. It enables the user to schedule fixed monthly payments like subscriptions, utility services, etc. The said amount is automatically deducted from the user’s bank account on the date set by the user and the payment will be made.

Most of the UPI applications offer the user a ‘Mandate’ option. Using this option, the user can create, approve, modify, pause, or revoke the auto-debit mandate. The user needs to provide a one-time approval to the merchants for whom they want to automate payments on the platform, to make use of this feature. The user also needs to fill in other details such as payment amount, merchant details, subscription start date, payment frequency, etc.

Catch the latest updates on RBI policy here

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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RBI will come out with new rules for loan aggregators

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday, December 8, announced the central bank’s decision to establish a framework for web aggregation of loan products. “We will be setting up a fintech repository,” Das said while announcing the December bi-monthly monetary policy.

Emphasising the stance of the RBI, Das reinforced the necessity of preemptive action, stating, “We do not wait for the house to catch fire and then act.”

He said that financial entities are partnering with fintechs and the move will lead to more transparency in digital lending. Das added that RBI has decided to come out with a unified regulatory framework on connected lending for all regulated entities (REs), too.

“This will strengthen pricing of credit for all REs,” he said.

In another conversation, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran underscored the significance of a balanced approach towards economic growth, advocating for what he termed as “tough optimism.”

Nageswaran highlighted the necessity of maintaining a realistic perspective while nurturing optimism for the future. “Unless we have our feet firmly planted on the ground, we cannot aspire to soar in the future,” he said.

Citing the recent surge in unsecured loans at a rate of 30%, Nageswaran acknowledged the RBI’s proactive step of augmenting risk weights.

According to Anand Agrawal, Co-Founder and CPTO, Credgenics, RBI’s proposal to create a fintech repository is a very positive move for the industry, as it will further catalyse innovation by fostering transparency.

This development follows the recent cautionary measures implemented by the central bank to avert financial risks in the lending sector. Last month, Governor Das warned banks to undertake stress tests and said all forms of “exuberance” should be curbed.

Lately, the amount of unsecured loans has been growing fast, leading to an increase in risk weights and, therefore, higher lending rates to slow down the rising risks.

In November, RBI also announced stricter norms for personal loans and credit cards in the form of higher capital requirements. The new regulations entail a 25-percentage-point increase in risk weights for banks and NBFCs, necessitating a higher capital requirement for each loan issued.

Specifically, the risk weight on retail loans, covering personal loans and credit card loans, has been upped to 125%, up from 100%. Additionally, the RBI enhanced risk weights for credit card exposures by 25 percentage points to 150% for banks and 125% for NBFCs.

However, certain loans such as housing, education, vehicle loans, and those secured by gold or gold jewellery are excluded from these revised risk weight guidelines.

The RBI’s move is in sync with worries it had expressed about the high growth in unsecured lending. The worry must be based on some data which shows early signs of delinquency.

As per the central bank, concerns arose due to an unusually high surge in these types of loans, particularly personal loans and credit cards, surpassing the overall bank credit growth of around 15% in the past year.

Catch the latest updates on RBI policy here

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

SBI anticipates 16-18% loan growth, highlights promising outlook for home loans

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The State Bank of India (SBI), a public sector lender, has set its sights on a robust loan growth of 16-18% for the fiscal year 2024. In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Dinesh Khara, the Chairman of SBI highlighted positive trends in specific segments, stating, “Home loans, SME segments are seeing decent growth and the system should be growing in the range of about 16 to 18%. ”

He emphasised the significance of the housing sector, stating, “Home loans are seeing decent growth. This is a very promising sector and also leads to growth in all the core sectors of the economy.”

Discussing the state of infrastructure, Khara noted that it remains stable compared to the previous year, and he anticipates growth in other areas.

He mentioned, “Rural, SME, and corporate will get to see reasonably decent growth.”

The conversation shifted towards recent regulatory changes by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), specifically the stricter norms for personal loans and credit cards, involving higher capital requirements.

Khara acknowledged the concerns but offered a measured perspective, stating, “There is a lot of anxiety on this particular RBI guidance in terms of higher risk weights (RWAs), but this is actually applicable only to consumer loans in general.”

Khara further clarified that the impact might not be as significant as feared, saying, “So, if we filter out these exclusions from the consumer credit, we observed that the consumer credit has been growing at about 25% plus since May 2022.”

He pointed out that the share of loans affected by the RBI norms is relatively small, constituting around 9.8 to 10% as of September 2023.

Addressing concerns about capital requirements, Khara reassured, “Banking system overall is holding about excess capital to the tune of about ₹7 lakh crore.”

Shares of SBI have gained more than 5% over the past month.

Also Read | CNBC-TV18 news break confirmed: Bank of India launches ₹4,500 crore QIP

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These banks raised fixed deposit interest rates ahead of RBI’s MPC review

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Several prominent banks, including ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Bank of India, Federal Bank, and Yes Bank, have recently increased their fixed deposit (FD) interest rates. These revisions come in the days leading up to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) forthcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announcement, slated for December 8, 2023. Experts anticipate that the central bank will likely keep the repo rate unchanged in its upcoming MPC review.

Banks that have raised their FD rates

ICICI Bank

Private lender ICICI Bank has restructured its FD interest rates for deposits ranging from ₹2 crore to ₹5 crore, effective December 6, 2023. The revised rates span from a minimum of 4.75% for a tenure between 7 to 14 days to 7.25% for a period extending from 390 days to 15 months.

Here’s a look at FD rates of ICICI Bank on deposits of ₹2 crore and above but less than ₹5 crore:

(Source: ICICI Bank)

Bank of India

Bank of India, has also joined the trend by increasing its FD rates, primarily targeting deposits from ₹2 crore and above to less than ₹10 crore. This revision, effective December 1, 2023, ranges from 5.25% for a tenure between 46 to 90 days to a substantial 7.25% for a tenure of 1 year.

Here’s a look at the FD rates of the Bank of India on deposits from ₹2 crore and above to less than ₹10 crore:

(Source: Bank of India)

HDFC Bank

HDFC Bank, another major player, has adjusted its FD rates for non-withdrawable fixed deposits, offering returns of up to 7.45% for tenures spanning one to two years and 7.2% for durations extending from two to ten years. Non-withdrawable fixed deposits lack a premature withdrawal facility, meaning depositors cannot close them before the designated term.

Here’s a look at the FD rates of HDFC Bank on deposits from ₹2 crore and above to less than ₹5 crore:

(Source: HDFC Bank)

Federal Bank

Federal Bank also re-evaluated its deposit rates, with an increase to 7.50% for a 500-day tenure for both residents and non-resident deposits, and a lucrative 8.15% for senior citizens. The rates for other tenures were also adjusted accordingly.

The interest rates on Foreign Currency Non-Resident Account (FCNR) and Resident Foreign Currency (RFC) have also been hiked. Here are the revisions:

The scenario

The recent surge in FD rates by banks can be attributed to the delayed transmission of RBI’s policy rate hikes. The RBI’s benchmark policy rate (repo) has remained unchanged for the past four bi-monthly monetary policies, standing at 6.5% since February 2023. However, the central bank earlier implemented six consecutive rate hikes, totalling 250 basis points, until the pause in April.

Though repo rates have risen, the subsequent adjustment in bank deposit rates has been gradual, as indicated by RBI governor Shaktikanta Das in the last policy review. Banks initially lagged in increasing their FD rates following the RBI’s policy actions, leading to a subsequent catch-up phase.

This trend indicates that banks are now aligning their FD rates with the policy rate hikes, responding to the potential for further rate hikes by the RBI. Consequently, depositors may continue witnessing adjustments in FD rates as banks aim to bridge the gap between policy actions and their interest rate policies, experts say.

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RBI hints at incomplete transmission of repo rate hike: What should fixed deposit investors do?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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In a move that has been highly anticipated by economists and investors alike, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday, October 6, kept the repo rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time. This decision comes as the central bank maintains a vigilant stance on inflation, pausing the rate increase cycle that was initiated in May, 2022. The RBI had previously implemented six consecutive rate hikes, totalling 250 basis points, until the pause in April.

For fixed deposit (FD) investors, this decision by the RBI holds significant implications.

Shaktikanta Das, RBI Governor, emphasised that while the repo rates have been raised by 250 basis points, this increase has not been fully transmitted to bank lending and deposit rates.

What this means for depositors is that there is still room for a potential hike in FD rates.

During the period when the RBI increased the repo rate, banks gradually followed suit by raising their FD interest rates, although there was some delay in transmission. Banks that initially delayed raising their FD rates have since been increasing them to catch up with the RBI’s policy actions.

For perspective, when the repo rate increases, FD interest rates follow suit, and when the repo rate decreases, FD interest rates decline as well.

Here’s a look at current fixed deposit interest rates of banks:

(Source: Paisabazaar; rates as on October 4)

The impact on investors

Many financial experts have weighed in on the RBI’s decision and its impact on FD investors.

Venkatraman Venkateswaran, Group President and Chief Financial Officer at Federal Bank, commented, “Given the broad-based credit growth and the relatively favourable state of the Indian economy compared to the global economy, banks will continue to pursue retail deposits.”

Aditya Gaggar, Director of Progressive Shares, added, “The incomplete transmission of the past 250 bps rate hikes to bank lending and deposit rates led to continue the stance of withdrawal of accommodation.” He also hinted at the possibility of tightening liquidity through open market operations (OMO) with regard to G-secs to manage liquidity.

Parry Singh, Founder & CEO of Red Fort Capital, pointed out that while the RBI’s decision is favourable for depositors, they should be prepared for a gradual decrease in FD interest rates in the months ahead as the central bank embarks on its monetary policy easing journey.

Investment strategy

Financial experts recommend that in the current climate, investors can maximise returns on FDs with a few strategic steps. Amit Gupta, MD of Sag Infotech, shared essential tips, including comparing interest rates offered by different banks and implementing FD laddering, a strategy that involves distributing investments across multiple FDs with different maturity periods to ensure regular liquidity and potential reinvestment at more favourable rates.

Gupta also emphasised considering tax implications, as interest earned from FDs is taxable, and avoiding premature withdrawals to prevent penalties and reduced interest earnings.

CA Manish Mishra, Virtual CFO and Growth Advisor, echoed the importance of FD laddering as a prudent investment approach.

“In FD laddering approach, investors allocate their funds across various FDs, each bearing distinct tenures and interest rates. This yields a structured ladder of maturity dates, offering a blend of liquidity and prospects for reinvestment at potentially enhanced interest rates,” Mishra told CNBC-TV18.com.

In order to maximise the benefits of fixed deposits, investors should vigilantly track the trajectory of interest rates and forecasts and as each FD reaches maturity, they should intelligently reinvest the proceeds into a new FD with the lengthiest tenure within the ladder.

“This tactic may yield superior returns over time. Also, investors should tailor their FD distribution to align with their financial objectives and liquidity requirements. To ensure more liquidity, they can consider dedicating larger sums to short-term FDs. Conversely, they can allocate substantial amounts to long-term FDs if liquidity is not an immediate concern,” Mishra said.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

RBI warning may make personal loans and credit cards more expensive

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Shaktikanta Das has cautioned about high growth in some segments of personal loans while announcing the bi-,”monthly monetary policy review on Friday (October 6). While it has not announced any steps to crimp such lending, RBI is uncomfortable with the continued rise in unsecured personal loans.

Student loans, credit cards, and other such loans where there’s no need for a collateral are classified as ‘unsecured’. “It is likely the RBI may raise risk weight on personal loans, according to our Banking Analyst Prakhar Agarwal. We
note retail unsecured loans grew more than 25% in FY23 and currently
form 32% of the retail loan portfolio,” broking firm Elara Securities said in a note dated October 6.

Currently, unsecured personal loans carry a risk weight of 100% and the same is 125% for dues on credit cards. If the risk weight is increased, it will make such loans more expensive for the borrower too. Higher the risk, higher the interest rate on the borrower.

Personal loans have grown over 20 percent in six out of last 12 months (ending July 2023). The table below shows growth rates up to July 2023:

Das further said that smaller NBFCs have been granted permission to employ credit risk mitigation instruments, a step towards enhancing stability in their operations. Additionally, urban cooperative banks have been permitted to increase the ticket sizes of bullet gold loans, which may further stimulate economic activity.

What RBI governor said is an echo of a growing fear within India’s financial industry. Banks have been keen to extend these loans to consumers because the high interest rates make for a meaty profit margin. That works well during good times but the risk of defaults is a lot higher on ‘unsecured’ loans.

In an earlier conversation with CNBC-TV18, Saswata Guha, Senior Director, Fitch Ratings,  and Jayaram Sridharan, Managing Director, Piramal Capital and Housing Finance,  have expressed similar fears.

In August 2023, AM Karthik, Vice President, ICRA, a ratings agency, estimated that when banks give out a loan of Rs 100 in unsecured loans, they tend to lose about Rs 4 to Rs 6 due to defaults and write-offs. This loss could be much higher during times of economic distress.

India’s shadow banks have lent at least Rs 3.5 lakh crore in the personal and unsecured loans category, according to the ICRA estimate last month. That would be about 9% of all loans made by the non-banking financial firms like Bajaj Finserv, Poonawalla Fincorp, and L&T Finance, to name a few examples.

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow