Lok Sabha Election Phase 2: Experts decode the key trends and issues in key battleground states

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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In the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections, 88 seats spread across 12 states and one union territory were up for grabs. However, the muted turnout of around 60% across seats could be something pollsters would be decoding over the next few days.

Karnataka witnessed the contest for 14 Lok Sabha seats, including crucial Bengaluru constituencies. In the previous elections, the BJP had secured victories in 11 of these seats, with the Congress and Janata Dal Secular (JDS) alliance winning one seat each. However, this time around, the dynamics have shifted with the Janata Dal Secular aligning with the BJP.

Senior Journalist, BS Arun, in an interview to CNBC-TV18 highlighted the intense battle between the BJP and the Congress in Karnataka, stating, “In Karnataka BJP and JDS have teamed up and they are fighting a fierce battle with the Congress. While the Congress has been highlighting the guarantees given by Siddaramaiah government and couple of other welfare measures dished out by them, the BJP has been highlighting the achievements of the Narendra Modi government over the last many years. So these two are the main campaign planks.”

Arun added that while the Congress may not have succeeded in taking on BJP in other states, but in Karnataka it seems to have succeeded in holding the BJP to some of the alleged wrongs that it had done.

Senior Journalist Vijay Grover stated that the BJP wants Karnataka to continue the mandate it had given in 2019. He highlighted that the biggest challenge for BJP was anti-incumbency, which the party seems to have mitigated by reshuffling candidates.

“No doubt this election is about Prime Minister Narendra Modi versus the rest of I.N.D.I.A. But in constituencies like Mysore, where they’ve been able to stem anti-incumbency against Pratap Simha by replacing him with a new candidate. That is something which certainly has helped. Similarly, in the second phase, there are some constituencies where we’ve seen a reshuffle of candidates who were there in 2019 and are not there now. So very clearly this is actually a reiteration, I would say, as far as the BJP is concerned that it wants the mandate to continue forward, what the Karnataka people had given to it in 2019. On the other hand, the Congress is banking on the five guarantees that it had launched last year, which it feels that will be able to give it some breathing space in terms of being able to counter the BJP in this particular election,” Grover stated.

In the Hindi heartland, encompassing Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, and Chhattisgarh, 35 seats were contested. The BJP-led NDA had secured victory in 34 of these 36 seats in the previous Lok Sabha elections. The Congress had won only one seat in Bihar and BSP had won in Amroha.

However, senior journalist Sharat Pradhan highlighted the BJP’s struggles in maintaining its stronghold in the Hindi heartland. He stated, “The changes that BJP has made in Uttar Pradesh candidates is not because of anti-incumbency, it is because of extraneous reasons, and that is what is giving BJP a tough time on more than one seat this time. I can see BJP going in for a tough call even in Ghaziabad, where they removed General VK Singh, the former Indian Army Chief, who was also the minister at the Centre for no rhyme or reason, and that provoked a lot of rajputs in the region to rise up in arms against the BJP. In Meerut BJP is showing how pathetic its condition is because they couldn’t get a candidate. They realised that Meerut is an important constituency in that region, so they had to hand pick somebody like Arun Govil, who is a lost and forgotten actor, who did a lead role as Ram in Ramayan way back in 1987-88. Because the Ram Mandir is not working, and there BJP had to take recourse to getting somebody who’s played the role of Ram. That reflects how the condition of the BJP is in these places.”

In Southern India, while the Congress and the Left are aligned in the I.N.D.I.A bloc, they are contesting against each other in Kerala. The BJP, despite never securing a Lok Sabha seat in the state is optimistic about its electoral prospects.

Key battlegrounds in Kerala included Wayanad, where Rahul Gandhi contested against CPI’s Annie Raja and BJP’s K Surendran, and Thiruvananthapuram, witnessed a three-way battle among Shashi Tharoor, Rajeev Chandrasekhar, and Panniyan Raveendran.

Senior Journalist MG Radhakrishnan noted that Kerala has never attracted so much attention in Lok Sabha election as it has this year. He highlighted that for BJP, Kerala has always remained completely inaccessible and that is why Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Kerala at least six times in the last four months. He further highlighted that for Congress Kerala is a state where it got maximum number of seats in 2019 election. And so to maximise their seats Kerala is of extreme importance to Congress.

Meanwhile, 8 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra also went to polls. A total of 204 candidates were in the fray. Three seats saw a direct face-off between the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde and the other faction led by Uddhav Thackeray.

Moreover, in Assam 5 constituencies went to polls today including large parts of the Barak Valley which borders Bangladesh.

Watch accompanying video for entire discussion.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow