2024 Lok Sabha Elections | Why Kerala is in focus as the second phase begins to vote

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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As the country began to vote for the second of the seven-phased Lok Sabha elections this morning, attention is now on to another state of south India — Kerala. After Tamil Nadu voted during the first phase, focus turned to Kerala or as one of the smartest taglines describes — the God’s Own Country .

Among the five states in Southern India, Kerala with 20 seats figures fourth in the list in terms of the number of representatives it sends to the Lok Sabha. It follows Tamil Nadu (39), Karnataka (28), Andhra Pradesh (25), and is succeeded by Telangana (17) and one seat of Union Territory of Puducherry whose conclaves share borders with three states.

Of the 16 crore voters, who in 88 Lok Sabha constituencies on Friday are going to elect the next government, Kerala will be on the radar of the governing Bharatiya Janata Party government for more reasons than one.

The  reason is clear. Kerala is the second state after Tamil Nadu the BJP focussed its energies in order to maximise its tally of seats from the South. The calculations are simple. The party is more secure in Karnataka, a state which elects half of its representatives on Friday.

The BJP is  acutely aware that having garnered the maximum in the Hindi-speaking and traditional seats in other parts of the country in 2019 polls, the party needs to break beyond Karnataka and increase the area of ‘Lotus’ bloom to achieve its grand plan of ‘Abki Baar 400-Paar’.

There was much hype in Tamil Nadu for the BJP after its under-40 years of age state party president, K. Annamalai created a splash. Whether it was on the electoral pan or otherwise can best be judged only after June 4.

Nonetheless, the BJP has made a determined push in Kerala, which can claim  to be Numero Uno in terms of literacy, and retains a different electoral matrix. The BJP is playing upon the dichotomy of the Congress-Left relations. These two parties, as is known, are allies in the I.N.D.I. Alliance elsewhere and daggers drawn in Kerala. 

Will this work? Difficult. Can the BJP raise its vote share? Uncertain. Union Minister Rajiv Chandrasekhar taking on Sashi Tharoor or Anil Antony, son of Congress stalwart A.K. Antony is making a determined bid.  Leave it to the wisdom of the people to exercise a preference on these high-profile seats or elsewhere to the electorate.

Yet, as the electoral race began in Kerala, the battle of the ballot in the state was essentially between the Congress-led United Democratic Front and the Communist Party of India-led Left Democratic Front.

 It is here that the landscape changes. The LDF-Government in Kerala is led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. The perception is that the state government is unable to handle its finance, even as the state administration claims it is severely handicapped accusing the Centre of denying it of its rightful share of funds.

The Chief Minister held a public protest at Jantar Mantar in Delhi during the Budget session of Parliament accusing the Modi Government, yet the plea of his government in the Supreme Court was more on limits on borrowings. The people in the state appear more concerned about Dearness Allowance and Old Age Pension accruals, which were in the arrears. Pinching in the pocket does hurt.

As per reports emerging from the ground, the Congress-led UDF is moving ahead in the race and Rahul Gandhi, MP from Wayanad is seeking to defend the seat. The CPI (M) and its allies are contesting on a difficult turf owing to what observers characterise as ‘anti-incumbency’.

The CPI (M) knows it needs to win a certain number of representatives to retain its national party status. The party cannot expect any concessions of the qualification norm altered by the polls body a little over three decades ago.

The irony is that one of the constituents of LDF, the Revolutionary Socialist Party, has moved out from the camp and is firmly with the Congress-UDF for over a decade. Of the 20 seats at stake, the Congress is contesting 16, the Muslim League 2, and one each by the Kerala Congress (Joseph) and RSP, where sitting MP and former LDF Minister N.K Premachandran is back in the fray.

The campaigning has been intense and no holds barred. Congress leader and its former President Rahul Gandhi criticised the BJP for not taking any action against the Chief Minister even as the CPI (M) suggested he withdraw it. In a state where people remain cued in with political realities,  realpolitik should have its way. 

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow