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2024 Lok Sabha Election | Which way the wind blows in the second phase
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
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Summary
With 88 seats in the fray, the second phase is not just another chapter; it’s a pivotal juncture where the triad of Kerala, Karnataka, and Rajasthan hold the keys to the kingdom. More than half of the seats lie in these battleground states, each with its own tale of political intrigue and historical allegiances, writes political observer and columnist Sayantan Ghosh.
In the grand theatre of Indian democracy, the second act unfolds with a narrative as compelling as the first. As the second phase of the voting is about to conclude, the air is thick with more anticipation and anxieties too.
The first phase was a testament to the opposition’s resilience, where its voices echoed through the polling booths with a resounding strength. Yet, as the pages of the electoral almanack turn, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerges with a sharpened edge, honed by the whetstone of past victories and the sheen of a well-oiled campaign machine.
With 88 seats in the fray, the second phase is not just another chapter; it’s a pivotal juncture where the triad of Kerala, Karnataka, and Rajasthan hold the keys to the kingdom. More than half of the seats lie in these battleground states, each with its own tale of political intrigue and historical allegiances.
Post the initial skirmish, the BJP, under the stewardship of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, has launched an aggressive crusade. Their clarion call resonates across the heartlands, seeking to dispel any shadows of doubt cast by the first phase. For them, this is the moment to fortify their bastions, to turn the tide in their favour, and to etch their narrative into the annals of time.
Conversely, the Congress party and its allies stand at a crossroads, where every move is critical, every decision momentous. This phase is their battleground, their chance to rewrite the script, to rally their forces against the winds of change. It is, in every sense, a fight for survival, a do-or-die duel in the arena of India’s vibrant democracy.
As the nation watches, the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections will not just decide the fate of the candidates, but also the direction of the world’s largest democracy. It’s a story of political prowess, of the will to overcome, and of the indomitable spirit of India.
Voter Turnout
In the intricate dance of democracy, the voter turnout is the rhythm that can sway the fortunes of political contenders. The 65.5% (till 3 PM) turnout in the second phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is a drumbeat to which the BJP and Congress, along with the opposition, must choreograph their next moves.
For the BJP, this figure is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it suggests a significant engagement, which could be the result of their vigorous campaigning and the resonance of their nationalistic narrative. On the other hand, it falls short of the previous election’s turnout, hinting at a possible complacency among its base or an undercurrent of dissatisfaction that could erode the margins of victory in closely contested seats.
The Congress and the opposition interpret this turnout as a clarion call. It’s a signal that the electorate is still listening, still weighing its options. For them, every percentage point below the last election’s turnout is a crack in the BJP’s armour, an opportunity to galvanise their base and appeal to the undecided voter. It’s a chance to present themselves as the alternative, to capitalise on any latent discontent.
BJP’s Advantage
In the simmering cauldron of Indian politics, the second phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections brews a potent concoction of rhetoric and ambition. The BJP strides into this round with the confidence of a lion that has previously claimed 63 of these 88 contested territories.
The air is thick with the scent of battle, as Modi’s oratory crescendos into a fervent pitch against the opposition, with the Congress party bearing the brunt of his verbal arsenal. The narrative spun is one of a cultural crusade, a clarion call to the Hindu majority that resonates through the heartlands of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Maharashtra, and Karnataka— the states that are the BJP’s traditional strongholds.
This electoral stage is set against a backdrop of scorching heatwaves and a complex tapestry of voter sentiments. The turnout, once a robust 70%, now teeters on the edge of uncertainty. Yet, the BJP remains undaunted, for the arithmetic of votes is a game they have mastered. The lower turnout, while a spectacle for analysts, is unlikely to dim the saffron glow of victory in these regions.
As the nation watches, the second phase is more than a mere contest; it’s a litmus test for the BJP’s unyielding quest for consolidation and the opposition’s desperate fight for relevance. The outcome of this phase is a harbinger of the political monsoon that awaits India.
BJP’s Kerala Challenge
In the kaleidoscope of Indian politics, Kerala stands as a vibrant piece, distinct yet integral to the national mosaic. For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), making inroads into this southern state is not just a strategic move, but a necessity to bolster its pan-Indian image and electoral arithmetic in the 2024 general elections.
Kerala’s political landscape, traditionally a bastion of the Left and the Congress-led UDF, presents a unique challenge and an opportunity for the BJP. A breakthrough here would signify the party’s acceptance beyond its traditional strongholds, showcasing its ability to resonate with a diverse electorate. It’s a chance to shatter the perception of regional limitations and to lay the groundwork for a more uniform national presence.
Moreover, Kerala’s 20 Lok Sabha seats are crucial for the BJP to increase its strike rate and secure a decisive victory. Success in Kerala would not only add to the party’s tally but also serve as a testament to the efficacy of its governance and policies. It’s about sending a message of unity and strength, demonstrating that the party’s vision aligns with the aspirations of people across the country.
For the BJP, Kerala represents the final frontier in its quest for a truly national mandate. The second phase of the 2024 general elections is the party’s moment to make a statement, to weave the saffron thread into the fabric of Kerala, and in doing so, strengthen the tapestry of its national dominance.
Where Does Opposition Stand In Second Phase
In the grand narrative of India’s electoral saga, the second phase of the 2024 general elections is a crescendo of political fortunes where the opposition faces a moment of reckoning. The southern states of Kerala and Karnataka emerge as the arenas of this high-stakes drama. Kerala, with its Left and Congress tapestry, and Karnataka, where the Congress recently savoured victory, stand as bastions of resistance against the BJP’s march. Yet, the BJP’s roots run deep in Karnataka, unlike in Kerala, where it seeks to plant its saffron flag.
The political theatre extends to the heartlands of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where the BJP’s dominance is countered by the Congress’s historical significance. Here, the winds of discontent among the Jats and Rajputs could sway the balance, turning a potential Congress resurgence into a storm that could shake the BJP’s foundations.
Karnataka’s political chessboard is set for a complex play of alliances, with the BJP and Janata Dal Secular’s pact hanging in the balance. A misstep in vote transfers could tilt the scales in Congress’s favour. Meanwhile, Maharashtra witnesses an epic fraternal feud within the Shiv Sena, where the legacy of the Thackeray name and the battle for the true Sena’s soul could divide loyalties and benefit the opposition.
Bihar presents a conundrum, with the electorate’s allegiance to Janata Dal United and Nitish Kumar’s political acrobatics under scrutiny. Their verdict could either bolster the BJP or invigorate the opposition. Assam seems a less hopeful ground for the opposition, while Bengal’s electoral contest is a delicate dance, with the BJP striving to retain its past glory against a resurgent TMC. Uttar Pradesh, with its razor-thin margins in seats like Meerut and Baghpat, becomes a crucible for the BJP’s efforts and the opposition’s opportunity to edge ahead.
As the nation’s political kaleidoscope turns, these regional dynamics will paint the canvas of India’s democratic spectacle, each stroke contributing to the larger picture of who will govern the world’s largest democracy.
—The author, Sayantan Ghosh (@sayantan_gh), is a political observer and a research scholar, who teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata. The views expressed are personal.
Read his previous articles here
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