Marie Diron, Managing Director, Sovereign Risk Group at Moody’s Investors Service said the US economy has been running faster than we previously anticipated, but so far we maintain our forecast of GDP growth in US at 2.3 percent next year.
“For China the impact will be somewhat larger at somewhere between 0.3 and 0.5 percent on GDP growth. We assume so far that some policy easing, monetary and fiscal policy easing, would offset that. So, in both cases, we maintain our growth forecast, but with a different mix of growth if you want,” Diron further added.
He said, “We assume that the dispute is on-going and is likely to continue and that we are likely to see further announcements and implementations of various measures, tariffs, and other trade restrictive measures. That is what we take into account in our forecast and ratings is not only the tariffs that have been implemented so far, that are relatively limited, but also the possibility of further measures such as potentially 10 percent tariff on imports from China to US on $200 billion of goods.”