Jayesh Mehta of DSP Finance thinks a rate cut by RBI may take six months

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Jayesh Mehta, Vice Chairman and CEO at DSP Finance says the first rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may take six months.

Mehta’s prediction aligns with a Reuters survey of 56 economists, indicating the central bank may keep rates steady until at least July.

On March 27, RBI released the schedule for its bi-monthly monetary policy committee (MPC) meetings for the next financial year.

The first meeting will be held from April 3-5, while the next will start on June 5, as per an official statement.

What’s interesting is that Mehta believes bond yields could rise to between 6.75% and 6.8% in the coming three to six months.

The yield increase will be driven by a blend of market forces including a robust demand for bonds, a constricted supply, and the added momentum from JP Morgan’ Bond Index inclusion, which will lead to heightened interest from international investors, Mehta noted.

Global funds have already added about $10 billion into Indian bonds since JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s September announcement of the nation’s inclusion in its closely followed emerging-market debt index.

Mehta said although inflows due to inclusion in the JPMorgan Bond Index is expected at around $23 billion, the actual inflows could be much higher as non-index investors also tend to get attracted.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow