5 Minutes Read

Here’s what makes Aditya Birla Capital merger with financial unit so significant

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

While Morgan Stanley has maintained an ‘Equal-Weight’ call with a target price of ₹196 per share, Jefferies is bullish, upgrading its call to ‘Buy’ and raising the target price to ₹225 per share.

Aditya Birla Capital’s recent announcement of a merger with its non-banking finance company (NBFC) subsidiary, Aditya Birla Finance Limited (ABFL), has sparked optimism among financial analysts. Brokerage firms Morgan Stanley and Jefferies have weighed in on the potential implications of this move.

While Morgan Stanley has maintained an ‘Equal-Weight’ call with a target price of ₹196 per share, Jefferies is notably bullish, upgrading its call to ‘Buy’ and raising the target price to ₹225 per share.

Morgan Stanley perceives this merger as having a limited tangible economic benefit.

However, the brokerage acknowledges the potential impact on the Holdco discount, which could be alleviated if ABFL were to list independently before the September 25 deadline.

Holdco discount refers to a reduction in the valuation or market price of Aditya Birla Capital’s shares due to its status as a holding company (Holdco) with diverse subsidiaries, including the non-banking financial company (NBFC) subsidiary, Aditya Birla Finance Limited (ABFL).

Holdco discounts often arise because investors may perceive holding companies as less valuable than individual business units or subsidiaries.

The crucial factor for this strategic manoeuvre lies in securing approval from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

Jefferies, on the other hand, stresses the significance of the proposed merger, emphasising its potential to simplify the corporate structure and resolve the impending mandatory listing of ABFL by September 2025.

The merger is projected to lift the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CRAR) by 150 basis points, signalling enhanced financial stability.

However, Jefferies also notes the possibility of Aditya Birla Capital trimming its stake in Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance (ABSLI) from the current 51% to comply with the 50% cap on holding.

The removal of the Holdco discount on ABFL is expected to boost the Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuation by 12%.

At the time of writing this report, shares of Aditya Birla Capital were trading 3.28% higher at ₹185.55 apiece.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Jonathan Garner explains why Morgan Stanley prefers India despite the steep valuations

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Jonathan Garner, Chief Asia and Emerging Market Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley said while India has not yet seen true global appeal, the country’s share in the emerging market (EM) index or the Asia ex-Japan index is rising steadily.

India is in a virtuous cycle of strong nominal GDP growth, strong capital inflows, healthy corporate profits, and a more stable environment for investors than ever seen historically, says Jonathan Garner, Chief Asia and Emerging Market Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley. “So it is no surprise to us that India is in a persistent secular bull market.”

Comparing India with Japan, which is also among Morgan Stanley’s top picks, Garner said, India is clearly a costlier market with a return on equity (ROE) of about 16% and a price-to-book ratio (P/B) of four times, against Japan’s 10% ROE and a P/B of 1.5.

But despite its high valuations, second only to the United States globally, Garner sees India’s market growth more evenly spread across different company sizes, unlike the concentrated profitability in the US. He believes this broad-based growth underpins the confidence in India’s ability to sustain significant earnings growth, even at a premium valuation.

“The question for India is how much compounding have we got to go because it is worth paying a growth multiple for a growth stock or a growth market if they’re capable of sustaining earnings growth. And at the moment, we have confidence that 20% compounded EPS (earning per share) growth is going to be sustainable for India over a three to five year horizon. So it’s a very interesting story,” he said.

While India has not yet seen ‘true global appeal’, Garner pointed out that India’s share in the emerging market (EM) index or the Asia ex-Japan index is rising steadily.

Explaining why India has so far not seen inflows similar to those seen in Japan, he said, Japan includes globally recognised stocks that have been familiar to investors for years. Also, the Japanese market in index terms is roughly 3.5-4 times the size of India in free float market cap and it’s a developed market (DM). So, it can attract a much broader range of interest. “It’s (India is) still an EM specialist or Asia ex-Japan specialist market from a foreigner perspective,” said Garner.

Also Read | Japan loses its spot as world’s third-largest economy as it slips into recession

Garner also shared his view on India’s financial sector. “The key point is that the financial sector in India is going to benefit from rising economic activity, rising demand for financial products of all forms and growth in household and corporate leverage over time.”

 

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

Catch all the latest updates from the stock market here

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Paytm Block Deal | Morgan Stanley Pte buys 50 lakh shares at ₹487.20 apiece

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

According to the bulk deal data on the NSE, Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte purchased 50 lakh shares, amounting to a 0.8% stake in Paytm.

Morgan Stanley on Friday (February 2) bought 50 lakh shares of One 97 Communications Ltd, which owns the Paytm brand, for nearly 244 crore
through an open market transaction.

According to the bulk deal data on the NSE, Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte purchased 50 lakh shares, amounting to a 0.8% stake in Paytm. The shares were acquired at an average price of 487.20 apiece, taking the deal size to 243.60 crore.

One 97 Communications Ltd slumped another 20% on Friday after the RBI directed Paytm Payments Bank Ltd (PPBL) to stop accepting deposits or top-ups in any customer accounts, wallets, FASTags, and other instruments after February 29.

The stock tanked 20% to 487.05 — its lowest trading permissible limit for the day — on the BSE. On the NSE, it tumbled 20% to hit the lower circuit limit of 487.20. Shares of One 97 Communications plummeted 20% on Thursday as well. In two days, the company’s market capitalisation (mcap) eroded by 17,378.41 crore to 30,931.59 crore.

Fintech firm Paytm sees an impact of 300-500 crore on its annual operational profit as its customers will not be able to add money to their wallets, FASTags, etc, as RBI barred Paytm Payments Bank Ltd from accepting deposits or top-ups in any customer account.

The central bank on Wednesday barred PPBL from accepting deposits or top-ups in any customer account, prepaid instruments, wallets, and FASTags, among others after February 29, 2024. Till then, customers can add money as well as withdraw money from the Paytm wallet and PPBL account.

RBI said the action against PPBL followed a comprehensive system audit report and subsequent compliance validation report from external auditors. One97 Communications Ltd (OCL) holds a 49% stake in PPBL but classifies it as an associate of the company and not as a subsidiary.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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ICICI Bank jumps 6% after Q3 results, brokerages set target prices in range of ₹1,190 to ₹1,350

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

ICICI Bank on Saturday (January 20) witnessed year-on-year growth, with a 23.5% increase in standalone profit and a 13% rise in net interest income for the third quarter that ended on December 2023.

ICICI Bank shares rose nearly 6% on Tuesday, January 23, after the lender reported a 23.5% increase in standalone profit and a 13% rise in net interest income (NII) on Saturday, January 20. At 9:38 am, the shares were 3.58% up at ₹1,044.35 apiece on BSE.

Key brokerages expressed bullish sentiments on the bank, pegging target prices between ₹1,190 and ₹1,350 per share.

Here’s a look at the target prices given by brokerages on ICICI Bank:

Brokerage Call Target Price (₹)
Morgan Stanley Overweight 1,350
Macquarie Outperform 1,190
CLSA Buy 1,300
CITI Buy 1,322

Morgan Stanley has assigned an overweight call to ICICI Bank. It highlighted the bank’s third-quarter Profit After Tax (PAT) growth of 24%, accompanied by a Return on Assets (RoA) of 2.3% and a Return on Equity (RoE) of 18.5%.

The firm remained optimistic about the bank’s strong balance sheet growth, expecting it to stay well above pre-COVID levels.

Despite projecting a potential moderation in RoA as margins adjust, Morgan Stanley foresees profitability remaining robust, making ICICI Bank an attractive investment prospect.

Macquarie, while maintaining an outperform call, acknowledged that the third-quarter PAT was in line with expectations.

Despite facing challenges such as high provisions and operating expenses, Macquarie noted that the bank’s performance was offset by fee income.

The Net Interest Margins (NIMs) decline, as anticipated, has not deterred Macquarie’s positive outlook, with the bank’s FY24 guidance being upheld.

CLSA, with a buy call on ICICI Bank, emphasised that the bank’s business performance is in line across all parameters, making it poised for rerating.

While acknowledging the ongoing moderation in Net Interest Margin, CLSA pointed out that the levels are still 40 basis points above those recorded in Q4FY22.

The bank’s loan growth, coupled with robust asset quality and an average Return on Equity of 17% over the medium term, contributes to CLSA’s positive stance.

CITI maintained a buy call for ICICI Bank, asserting that the bank’s third-quarter performance exceeded expectations. Notably, Net Interest Margin (NIM) experienced a modest decline of only 10 basis points, compared to the estimated 16 basis points decline.

Operating expense (opex) growth was contained at 2%, contributing to the bank’s overall positive financial outlook.

The loan growth, aligning with expectations, recorded 19% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, while deposit growth slightly fell below expectations at 3% quarter-on-quarter, CITI said.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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HDFC Bank sheds ₹1.1 lakh crore in m-cap after dropping most in three years: Should you buy?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

HDFC Bank reported a net profit of ₹16,372 crore, marking a sequential increase of 2.5% and yearly rise of 33.5%. It is important to note that HDFC Bank merged with Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC) in June 2023.

Shares of HDFC Bank on Wednesday, January 17, erased ₹1.1 lakh crore in market capitalisation after posting biggest single-day fall in three years. The shares of the lender declined following the release of the company’s third quarter results.

Brokerages offered varied perspectives on the HDFC Bank’s performance.

The bank reported a net profit of ₹16,372 crore, marking a sequential increase of 2.5% and a yearly rise of 33.5%.

It is important to note that HDFC Bank merged with Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC) in June 2023.

Here’s a table summarising the target prices provided by various brokerages after HDFC Bank’s Q3 results:

Brokerage Recommendation Target Price (₹)
Bernstein Outperform ₹2,200
Morgan Stanley Overweight ₹2,110
Jefferies Buy ₹2,000
HSBC Buy ₹1,950 (reduced from 2,080)
InCred Add ₹2,000
DAM Capital Buy ₹2,000
Motilal Oswal Buy ₹1,950

What do brokerages say?

Brokerage firm Bernstein has an ‘Outperform’ recommendation on the lender, setting a target of ₹2,200 per share. It acknowledged the bank’s weak set of numbers, noting the first year-on-year earnings per share (EPS) decline in a decade.

Flat Net Interest Margins (NIMs) quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and a 2% year-on-year decline in EPS were highlighted by the firm. The use of lower tax expenses to maintain a 2% Return on Assets (RoA) was mentioned.

Morgan Stanley (MS), with an ‘Overweight’ recommendation and a target of ₹2,110 per share, positively noted a 2% QoQ growth in Profit After Tax (PAT), beating estimates by approximately 4%.

It described the Net Interest Income (NII) as in line with estimates and stable margins QoQ. A stable core Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPoP) and higher credit costs due to one-time contingency provisions were observed by the brokerage.

Jefferies recommended ‘Buy’, setting a target of ₹2,000 per share.

It commended the bank’s core Profit Before Tax (PBT) growth and net profit exceeding estimates with a lower tax rate. An uptick in retail deposit mobilisation and lending was emphasised as crucial to lifting Net Interest Margins (NIMs).

Stable asset quality and the importance of retail growth were acknowledged by the brokerage.

HSBC, maintaining a ‘Buy’ recommendation but reducing the target to ₹1,950 from ₹2,080 per share, moderated the Net Interest Margin (NIM) expansion estimate from 30 bps to 15 bps over FY24-26.

It reduced near-term earnings estimates, citing pressure.

Despite lowering the target, HSBC maintained a positive stance on HDFC Bank.

InCred recommended an ‘Add,’ with a target of ₹2,000 per share.

It praised the bank’s healthy Profit After Tax (PAT) in Q3 amid a steady quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) margin. The brokerage further highlighted the utilisation of treasury gains for a contingent provision and cautious management of deposit growth.

InCred expressed confidence in credit growth and manageable deposits.

DAM Capital, with a ‘Buy’ recommendation and a target of ₹2,000 per share, noted a 10% beat in Q3 earnings due to a lower tax rate and mark-to-market (MTM)/trading gains.

It emphasised steady core profitability and the creation of a contingency buffer using better treasury gains. The increase in provisions was acknowledged, but DAM Capital maintained a favourable view on valuations.

Motilal Oswal has reiterated its buy rating on HDFC Bank stock with a target price of ₹1,950.

The brokerage firm underscored that HDFC Bank reported in-line earnings led by healthy other income and steady loan growth.

What should investors do?

The brokerages present a diverse range of perspectives on HDFC Bank’s Q3 results, reflecting both positive and cautious sentiments.

However, speaking of market experts, Ashutosh Mishra, Head-Research, Instl Equitiesm, Ashika Stock Broking, said that the current valuation is ‘quite compelling’ particularly when considering not only HDFC’s standalone performance but also the collective performance of its subsidiaries post-merger.

Mishra emphasised the successful execution of the substantial merger, noting the absence of significant negative impacts.

According to him, this positions HDFC Bank as a “screaming buy” at its current level, offering substantial potential gains over the next two to three years.

Deven Choksey, MD, DR Choksey Finserv, highlighted the role of growth in influencing stock prices.

For Choksey, the current results present an opportunity to invest in HDFC Bank at corrected and lower levels.

He views this as a meaningful buying opportunity, foreseeing potential gains ranging from 25-30% going forward

Stock performance

The US-listed shares of HDFC Bank fell 6.7% overnight.

This is the biggest single-day drop seen by the shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) since April 2022, when they had declined 7.5%. It must be noted that HDFC Bank commands over 14% weightage on the Nifty 50 index, which is the highest among the constituents.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Brokerages express optimism with revised targets on HDFC AMC

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

HDFC AMC reported a consolidated net profit of ₹488 crore, marking a 32.2% year-on-year (YoY) increase from ₹369.2 crore in the corresponding quarter last financial year.

Brokerage houses were mostly optimistic about HDFC Asset Management Company (AMC) a day after the firm announced financial results for the quarter that ended December 31, 2023. The firm reported a consolidated net profit of ₹488 crore, marking a 32.2% year-on-year (YoY) increase from ₹369.2 crore in the corresponding quarter last financial year.

While Morgan Stanley (MS) kept the target price at ₹3,000 per share with an equal-weight call, HSBC kept it at ₹3,410 per share with a ‘hold call’.

MS emphasised sustained growth in Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) flows and resilient markets, contributing to higher Assets Under Management (AUM) forecasts.

While acknowledging a higher tax rate impacting earnings, MS remained optimistic about near-term momentum and sentiment.

The brokerage trimmed earnings per share (EPS) projections for FY24 and FY25.

HSBC, on the other hand, highlighted the company’s healthy operating performance in Q3FY24, attributing it to market share gains and strong industry tailwinds.

Despite acknowledging potential challenges with income yields in FY25-26, HSBC anticipates slower earnings per share (EPS) growth compared to Assets Under Management (AUM) growth, forecasting an EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% and an average Return on Equity (RoE) of 28% over FY25/26.

Meanwhile, the AMC closed the quarter with ₹5.75 lakh crore in Assets Under Management (AUM). The Quarterly Average Assets Under Management (QAAUM) reached ₹5.51 lakh crore, reflecting an 11.2% market share in the mutual fund industry.

Operating profit from the core asset management business surged by 25% to ₹496.1 crore.

Total investments amounted to ₹6,469.5 crore as of December 31, 2023, with 90% allocated to mutual funds, 6.1% in debentures and tax-free bonds, and 3% in Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) and other equities.

HDFC AMC showcased a diversified investment portfolio, with 90% in liquid and debt funds, 7.7% in equity-oriented funds, and the remaining in arbitrage funds.

Total live accounts stood at 149 lakh as of December 31, 2023.

Unique customers as identified by Permanent Account Number (PAN) or PAN-exempt KYC Reference Number (PEKRN) now stand at 87 lakh as of December 31, 2023.

At the time of writing this report, the shares of HDFC AMC were trading 1.55% lower at ₹3447.80 apiece on BSE.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Morgan Stanley anticipates consumption recovery in FY24 second half

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist at Morgan Stanley said there are indications of a pickup in volumes in the third quarter (October-December). He anticipates consumption growth for the financial year 2024 to improve to 6% from 4.4% posted in the first half of the year.

Morgan Stanley has observed early signs of recovery in consumption growth which had been lagging in the first half of the current financial year, primarily due to low rural demand.

Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist at the investment bank said there are indications of a pickup in volumes in the third quarter (October-December) including for consumer durables. He anticipates consumption growth for the full year to improve to 6.0% from the 4.4% seen during the first half of the year.

Gross fixed capital formation has been strong this year with full year growth estimated at 11% led by government capex. However, consumption growth has been subdued with growth estimated at only 4.4% in line with that seen in the first half. This has led to concerns that companies might defer capacity expansion plans.

Ahya said the current assessment is based on anecdotal evidence and there will be better clarity once consumer companies declare their December quarter results,

Morgan Stanley has also revised upward its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the current financial year to 6.9%, and projects growth for the next financial year (FY25) at 6.5%.

“We had initially expected India’s GDP growth to be at 6.5% for the 12 months ending March ’24. However, with the recent GDP data from the last quarter, we have already upgraded it to 6.9% and are maintaining that estimate for the period. Looking ahead to the next year, our projection remains at 6.5%.”

The National Statistics Organisation (NSO) recently unveiled its initial forecast for India’s economic growth in 2024 (FY24), indicating an anticipated growth rate of 7.3%. This figure surpasses the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) latest projection of 7%, and CNBC-TV18’s earlier estimate of 6.8%.

Ahya provided further details on Morgan Stanley’s revised numbers, stating, Also Read | Indian markets may see high volatility due to these seven factors, says Morgan Stanley

Discussing recent economic trends, Ahya noted substantial foreign portfolio inflows into India in the last six weeks, with continued positive momentum alongside Japan. He dismissed concerns about potential competition for investment, stating, “I don’t think there is a sort of cannibalising of flows because of Japan doing well.”

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

Catch all the latest updates from the stock market here

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Coforge shares gain nearly 3% as Morgan Stanley sees up to 17% upside

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Coforge Share Price | Morgan Stanley has set the target price for Coforge at ₹7,200 per share, implying a potential upside of around 17% from Wednesday’s closing price of ₹6,152.25 apiece on BSE.

Coforge shares gained nearly 3% on Thursday, January 11, after global brokerage Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on the stock with an ‘overweight’ rating and projected up to 17% upside in the next 12 months.

The brokerage has set the target price at ₹7,200 per share, implying a potential upside of around 17% from Wednesday’s closing price of ₹6,152.25 apiece on BSE.

Coforge shares rose as much as 3.19% to hit ₹6338.50 apiece on Thursday, in morning deals.

Terming the stock as a preferred midcap IT pick, Morgan Stanley stated that a focused and transformed Coforge has shown scalability attributes that can keep its revenue growth profile higher for longer against its peers.

Valuations are at a premium but have the potential to sustain, driven by robust revenue growth, and strong free cash flow (FCF) conversion, the brokerage stated in a report.

Morgan Stanley expects a revenue compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14,7% over the FY24-FY26 period on a constant currency basis.

It also expects earnings before interest tax (EBIT) margin to improve by 190 basis points in the FY 24-26 period.

The brokerage listed three main catalysts that it thinks would drive revenue growth in the mid-term. The first is Deal total contract value (TCV) which has inched up from a quarterly run rate of $300 million plus, according to Morgan Stanley.

The company delivers on growth aspirations faster than currently expected by market while an uptick in new grad contribution to net adds, which drives margin higher, it added.

Coforge last month had expressed confidence in achieving the projected revenue growth of 13-16% in FY24 on the back of the current demand situation and project pipeline.

The company, which competes with rivals like Wipro, Accenture and Cognizant, is hopeful of increased margins in the third quarter of FY24.

Shares of Coforge were trading 2.67% higher at ₹6306 apiece at 10:15 am on Thursday, January 11.

Also Read: GAIL shares drop after CLSA downgrades stock to ‘underperform’

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Indian markets may see high volatility due to these seven factors, says Morgan Stanley

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Morgan Stanley also said that while some of their technical indicators are nearing a “sell” zone, fundamentals are just about “mid-cycle” levels with more upside in the coming quarters.

Seven factors, ranging from the upcoming general elections to monetary policy may lead to Indian markets facing heightened volatility in the new year, according to Morgan Stanley’s latest note.

The brokerage also said that while some of their technical indicators are nearing a “sell” zone, fundamentals are just about “mid-cycle” levels with more upside in the coming quarters.

“We expect a further rise in volatility,” the brokerage wrote in its note.

These are the seven factors highlighted:

Upcoming Elections

India is set to face general elections sometime in April or May this year, dates for which are yet to be announced. That, according to Morgan Stanley may lead to a rise in volatility.

However, the recent outcome in three out of the five state elections, which voted the incumbent Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) to power, the street is more convinced about the current establishment retaining power. This confidence triggered a stellar rally in the benchmark indices and the broader markets in December, taking the Nifty 50 and other indices to newer highs.

US Markets

Cues emerging from the US stock and bond markets is another factor. The US Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates in 2024. However, contrasting statements from multiple Fed officials has resulted in increased volatility in the US markets, which may also impact Indian equities

Oil Prices

While India remains less affected than the past due to rising oil prices, a further rise may present headwinds for the economy, according to Morgan Stanley’s note.

India’s oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri said last year that if oil prices go above $100 per barrel, it will not be in the interest of either the producer or consumer, but will lead to “organised chaos.” However, he added that “India will manage” even in case of such a scenario.

Monetary Policy

Morgan Stanley’s base case for India’s monetary policy is a status quo. However, it believes that inflation and moves from the US Federal Reserve will be key to determine the future stance of the Reserve Bank of India.

Corporate Earnings

India still remains among Morgan Stanley’s top picks and the brokerage said that the country’s fundamentals are underscored by strong macro stability, flexible inflation targeting and stable non-portfolio foreign flows.

It further said that earnings growth is expected to be about 20% annually over the next three to four years, led by an emerging private capex cycle, re-leveraging of corporate balance sheets and unfolding of a structural rise in discretionary consumption along with a reliable source of domestic risk capital.

Bond Flows

Morgan Stanley believes that bond flows can start affecting the Balance of Payments positively starting next year.

JPMorgan will include India’s government bonds to its emerging markets bond index starting June 28, 2024.

The inclusion of the IGBs will be staggered over a 10-month period from June 28, 2024 to March 31, 2025, implying an inclusion of 1 percent weightage per month.

Rise In Net Issuances

Indian markets saw 78 Private Equity exits worth nearly ₹1 lakh crore all through 2023, according to a note from Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative research.

Morgan Stanley believes that the rise in net issuances, or the process of offering shares to raise funds from investors, may lead to more volatility due to highly volatile FPI flows.

Is The Market Overbought?

Morgan Stanley’s note says that while market breadth and institutional flows are at a level associated with a correction, their “composite sentiment indicator” is yet to enter “sell” territory.

“Valuations, in particular market cap to GDP, appear to be stretched, but then share prices have barely kept pace with earnings over the past three-to-five years, whereas we remain in an earnings upcycle,” the note said.

The brokerage is “Overweight” on financials, technology, consumer discretionary and industrials, while being “Underweight” on other sectors.

Morgan Stanley’s Base Case, which sees the Sensex at 74,000 assumes a continuity in the current government with a majority mandate, robust domestic growth, the US not slipping into a protracted recession and benign oil prices.

The brokerage is projecting the Sensex to hit 86,000 as part of its bull case scenario in which oil prices fall below $70 per barrel in addition to the points highlighted in the base case. A renewal in US growth cycle, strong bond flows surprising to the upside and earnings growth compounding 24% annually over financial year 2023-2026 add to the base case.

However, its bear case sees the Sensex dropping to 51,000 where India’s election delivers an unclear mandate, RBI tightens to protect macro stability, oil prices shoot past $110 per barrel and a US recession leads global growth lower.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Morgan Stanley bullish on real estate upcycle, increases target price for these stocks

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Demand supported by a robust macro and positive industry structure could provide a multi-year upcycle in the real estate sector, global brokerage Morgan Stanley said. However, meaningful downsides exist as well, it added.

Global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley has raised target price of leading realty stocks with a bullish outlook as it expects a multi-year upcycle in the sector.

Demand supported by a robust macro and positive industry structure could provide a multi-year upcycle in the real estate sector, global brokerage Morgan Stanley said. However, meaningful downsides exist as well, it added.

The industry upcycle started in 2021 in terms of average selling price (ASP) growth and could continue with the help of a strong macro and favourable industry structure, the financial services firm said in a note.

A favourable industry structure could be defined as lower leverage, industry consolidation, and measured price increases.

The brokerage house has raised the target price of leading realty stocks such as DLF, Prestige, Macrotech Developers, Godrej Properties and Oberoi Realty.

Morgan Stanley has “overweight” ratings for DLF and Prestige stocks. It has increased the target price of DLF to ₹770 from ₹549 apiece, and increased Prestige’s target to ₹1,300 from ₹524 per share.

It has ‘equal-weight’ ratings for Macrotech Developers and Godrej Properties. The target price of Macrotech Developers has been increased to ₹960 from ₹572 per share and that of Godrej Properties has been increased to ₹ 2,050 from ₹1,354 apiece.

In contrast, Morgan Stanley has downgraded its rating on Oberoi Realty to “underweight”, although it raised the target price for the stock to ₹ 1,180 from ₹885 apiece.

Last month, Prashant Thakur, regional director and head of research at Anarock Group, stated that the recent surge in property prices was partly a catch-up from seven stagnant years pre-COVID, where the industry was flat and prices didn’t rise.

While affordable housing (under ₹40-45 lakhs) is still struggling, the real market activity is in the ₹80 lakh to ₹1.5 crore range, predominantly in the top seven cities, he stated.

Shares of DLF were trading 2.45% higher at ₹666.1 apiece on BSE at 10:12am, while shares of Macrotech Developers were trading 0.15% higher at ₹919.05 apiece on BSE. Godrej Properties shares were 0.37% up at ₹1,936.4 apiece on BSE while Oberoi Realty shares were trading 0.79% lower at ₹1,435.15 apiece on BSE.

Also Read: Subros shares hit record high after government makes AC cabins mandatory in trucks

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
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Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?