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India’s economic trajectory points to upper-middle income status by 2036

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

According to India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), the current estimated GDP of $3.6 trillion in FY24 could pave the way for India to enter the upper-middle income category (per capita income $4,466-13,845) between FY33 and FY36, reaching a milestone of a $15 trillion economy by FY47.

India, recognised as the fastest-growing economy among G20 developing nations, is setting its sights on transitioning into a developed economy by 2047. According to India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), the current estimated GDP of $3.6 trillion in FY24 could pave the way for India to enter the upper-middle income category (per capita income $4,466-13,845) between FY33 and FY36, reaching a milestone of a $15-trillion economy by FY47.

Ind-Ra has, however, set an ambitious estimate of the country becoming a $30-trillion economy by 2047, dependent on certain factors.

Dr Sunil Kumar Sinha, Senior Director and Principal Economist at Ind-Ra, emphasised the pivotal role of real GDP growth, inflation (GDP deflator), and the INR/USD exchange rate in shaping India’s economic trajectory.

“The onward journey of Indian economy from India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) estimated USD3.6 trillion dollars in FY24 will depend on the rate at which the real GDP growth, inflation (GDP deflator) and INR/USD exchange rate evolve,” Sinha said.

“We expect the Indian economy under different scenarios to enter into the upper-middle income category (per capita income USD4,466-13,845) over FY33–FY36 and to a USD15 trillion economy over FY43-FY47,” Sinha added.

Until 2006, the World Bank classified India as a low-income country. In 2007, India moved to the lower-middle income country and since then has remained there. India’s per capita GDP stood at $2,390 in 2022, the report stated.

Size of Indian Economy and Per Capita Income Under Various Scenarios
GDP, Nominal Scenario A (per annum Real GDP growth:6.25%, GDP deflator growth 3.50% and INR/USD depreciation 3.25%) Scenario B (per annum Real GDP growth:7.0%, GDP deflator growth 3.5% and INR/USD depreciation 3.5%) Scenario C (per annum Real GDP growth:7.0%, GDP deflator growth 3.5% and INR/USD depreciation 4.0%) Scenario D (per annum Real GDP growth:8.0%, GDP deflator growth 3.5% and INR/USD depreciation 3.25%)
USD5 trillion FY30 (3,467) FY29 (3,358) FY30 (3,463) FY29 (3,530)
USD10 trillion FY41 (6,471) FY40 (6,574) FY41 (6,449) FY37 (6,354)
USD15 trillion FY47 (9,218) FY46 (9,613) FY47 (9,175) FY43 (9,920)
Note: Numbers in parenthesis are per capita income in USD in the fiscal year mentioned.

Source: United Nations Population Division, Ind-Ra

Ind-Ra’s ambitious estimate of reaching $30 trillion by FY47 requires a substantial annual growth rate of 9.7% in current USD terms from FY24 to FY47. Historical data over the past 50 years highlights that sustaining such a high growth rate for a decade is rare, with only two instances in 1973-1982 and 2003-2012.

While India exhibits robust economic growth, global trade challenges and protectionist measures adopted by developed economies since FY12 pose potential obstacles. The shift towards trade fragmentation and climate-related policy changes further complicates India’s journey towards the $30-trillion target by 2047.

Despite uncertainties surrounding the $30-trillion target, Ind-Ra’s estimates suggest that India’s per capita income could range from $9,218 to $9,920 between FY43 and FY47. This projection places India in proximity to the high-income country threshold of $13,846 per capita.

Beyond economic indicators, Ind-Ra identifies key factors influencing India’s economic trajectory, including energy transition, low carbon manufacturing/services, and the expansion of the middle class. India’s commitment to energy transition, showcased at the COP26 Summit, positions it as a major player in renewable energy, with ambitious targets such as 500GW renewable energy capacity by 2030 and achieving a net-zero economy by 2070.

The focus on low-carbon products and services, as exemplified by India’s first green hydrogen plant-based stainless steel manufacturing facility commissioned in March 2023, is expected to contribute significantly to India’s growth.

Additionally, the rising incomes and aspirational lifestyle of the middle-income class are identified as key drivers of demand for goods and services. According to People Research on India’s Consumer Economy, the middle-class population is projected to grow substantially, reaching 715 million in 2030-31 and 1.02 billion in 2046-47.

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Why Keki Mistry thinks REITs are a good investment option

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Keki Mistry pointed out that while there can be various kinds of REITs, India still has REITs only for commercial real estate or for retail, shopping malls etc. and not for residential.

Ex-HDFC CEO believes Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are very important, particularly for those who may not have the funds to invest directly in real estate because of the high prices.

REITs allow you to invest in real estate assets, such as office buildings, and shopping malls without directly owning them.

In a conversation with CNBC-TV18, Keki Mistry, former CEO of HDFC, said REITs help owners convert illiquid assets into liquid assets.

While there can be various kinds of REITs, he noted, in India, there are REITs only for commercial real estate or for retail or shopping malls etc. and not for residential.

Also Read | GST Council may soon clarify tax exemption to Real Estate Regulatory Authority

Mistry pointed out that REITs are very popular in other countries, especially in the US, where the total value the market is approximately $50 trillion, with listed REITs making up about $1.8-1.9 trillion of that amount.

“In India, on the other hand, there are only four listed REITs. In the US there are close to 200 listed REITs, just under 200. So, there is a huge difference between India and the US. The total market cap of all the listed mcap in India is about $4 trillion, roughly, whereas the market cap of all the listed REITs is under $10 billion,” he added.

Also Read | Arvind SmartSpaces eyes 35% revenue growth in FY24, targets Surat real estate

He expects an increase in the market capitalisation of REITs in India as more developers, who have developed large amounts of commercial real estate that is leased out, will eventually want to convert them into REIT structures.

Besides the US, REITs are also popular in the United Kingdom (UK), Japan, and Singapore.

Mistry is optimistic about the Indian real estate sector.

“I believe the growth opportunity in India is phenomenal. We are a very under-penetrated market, mortgages in India are only 11% of the GDP. In the Western world mortgages are 50-60-70% of GDP. China is about 24-25%. India is only 11%. So, there is so much scope to grow,” he added.

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

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Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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GVA-GDP Divergence: Storm in a tea cup? CEA dismisses concerns by saying ‘it’s nothing new’

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Government data showed fertiliser subsidies in the October-December quarter declined by nearly 70% to ₹307 billion ($3.7 billion) from the same period a year ago.

A sharp fall in key subsidies provided a boost to India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the three months through December, a government official said.

“The prices of fertilisers were high last year. Hence, the lower cost of subsidies and higher taxes have led to divergence in GVA and GDP,” said a source in the government.

India’s economy grew 8.4% during the October-December quarter, beating the street estimates and posting its fastest pace in one and a half years. However, gross value added (GVA)—calculated as the GDP plus indirect taxes minus the subsidies—was in line with expectations at 6.5%.

Government data showed fertiliser subsidies in the October-December quarter declined by nearly 70% to ₹307 billion ($3.7 billion) from the same period a year ago, said news agency Reuters.

However, divergence between the gross value added (GVA) and the GDP is at a multiple year high with quarterly GVA clocking a 6.5% growth against the economy expanding by 8.4%. “The wide divergence between the GVA and GDP in the October-December quarter was mainly due to a sharp fall in subsidies in that quarter largely because of lower payouts on fertilizer subsidies like Urea,” a senior government official said on Friday.

While this is one of the reasons cited, the jump in growth of indirect taxes is also extremely visible. From growing at a pace of 8% in the first quarter to 12.8% in the second quarter, tax growth zoomed to 32% in the third quarter. In recent years the only time when tax growth was higher was in the first quarter of FY23, when taxes grew by 37.6% and the GDP expanded by 12.8%. In that quarter also the divergence between the GVA and the GDP was 150 basis points, with GVA growing at 11.3%. Although in the quarter gone by this fiscal, the divergence has widened to 190 basis points as Food and Fertliser subsidies are much lower now.

In the meanwhile, India’s Chief Economic Advisor Nageswaran on Thursday clarified there is nothing new in the GVA vs GDP gap , “ So the discrepancy has always been there since the time the GDP data has been there, and this time infact the discrepancy in the expenditure estimate is negative, which means GVA growth numbers are high ….if the GDP by expenditure methodology is able to match the GVA numbers it would be even higher . And naturally for the expenditure approach data comes over time, it’s like you have 5 or 6 different estimates of GDP. So this is nothing new.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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India’s economic growth expected to slip below 7% in October-December quarter

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

India is expected to grow at 6.6% in the three months that ended on December 31, a Reuters poll showed, slowing from growth of 7.6% in the previous quarter and 7.8% in the July quarter. India’s fiscal year starts from April 1.

India’s economic growth probably slipped below 7% for the first time in the current fiscal year in the October-December period, hit by a tepid manufacturing sector and weakness in consumption.

The country is expected to grow at 6.6% in the three months that ended on December 31, a Reuters poll showed, slowing from growth of 7.6% in the previous quarter and 7.8% in the July quarter. India’s fiscal year starts from April 1.

At 1200 GMT on Thursday, India will release the gross domestic product (GDP) data for the quarter, along with the revised estimate for the full year, which ends on March 31.

“Some moderation is expected in October-December GDP growth, with softer growth in manufacturing sector,” said Gaura Sen Gupta, an economist at IDFC First Bank.

Consumption growth in the quarter was “mixed”, with retailers reporting a slowdown in sales growth, Sen Gupta said.

Earlier this month, market researcher NielsenIQ said sales volume growth in the Indian consumer goods sector in the December quarter slowed sequentially.

Retailers have been struggling, mainly in the rural areas, where the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has been slow, impaired by the high cost of living and weak wage growth, despite India’s world-beating growth rate.

Companies like Hindustan Unilever and Britannia Industries posted weak quarterly profits, because of subdued rural demand and increased competition.

Fastest-growing economy

Despite slower growth, India is likely to retain its position as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies with estimated growth of 7.3% estimated in the current fiscal year, the government’s first advance estimate shows, amid a faltering China and a eurozone narrowly escaping a technical recession.

The Indian government will revise its full-year growth estimate on Thursday. Economists say India will keep its status as one of the fastest growing economies in the foreseeable future, helped by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s reforms.

“On a long-term basis, India is likely to deliver minimum 6% to 6.5% real GDP growth and 10% to 11% nominal GDP growth, significantly higher than comparable emerging market countries over the next two decades,” said Kaushik Das, an economist at Deutsche Bank.

Modi sharply raised government spending on infrastructure over the last few years and has unveiled incentives for the manufacturing of phones, electronics, drones and semiconductors to help India compete with likes of Vietnam and Thailand.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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India’s GDP growth to slow down to 6.5% in FY25, projects Ind-Ra

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Despite this dip, the analysis suggests a robust economic recovery propelled by consistent government capital expenditure, strong corporate performance, and a balanced banking sector.

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) projects a GDP growth of 6.5% for FY25, a modest decrease from the previous fiscal year’s 7.3%. Despite this dip, the analysis suggests a robust economic recovery propelled by consistent government capital expenditure, strong corporate performance, and a balanced banking sector. The prospect of a forthcoming private corporate capex cycle adds a positive dimension to the outlook.

The report flags concerns about consumption demand, particularly in goods and services favored by households in the upper income bracket. While government capex drives aggregate demand, Ind-Ra emphasizes the necessity for a more diversified consumption demand growth, urging a focus on households with lower incomes. Although the private sector’s greenfield capex remains sluggish, the report identifies signs hinting at the potential for a new cycle.

The outlook for global exports in FY25 is challenging due to the growth slowdown in advanced economies and increased trade distortions/geopolitical fragmentation. India’s goods and services exports experienced a negative growth rate of 0.14% during the first 10 months of FY24. Additionally, the rise in Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation, similar to the producers’ price index, poses concerns for gross value added (GVA) and corporate profitability in FY25. WPI, which was in deflation from April to October 2023, has shifted to inflation since November 2023.

“A rise in input cost, if is not adequately passed into output prices, will reduce value addition/corporate margin. Given that consumption is not broad-based, producers will find it difficult to pass on the higher input cost to output prices,” says Sunil Kumar Sinha, Principal Economist, Ind-Ra.

Ind-Ra anticipates Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) to grow at 4.2% YoY in FY25, underscoring the ongoing significance of government capex. Despite a shift in focus, the report projects Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) to grow at 8.1% YoY, sustained by government capital expenditure.

The report issues a caution regarding challenges for India’s exports in FY25, citing global headwinds such as a growth slowdown in advanced economies and rising trade distortions. Despite the recovery of global supply chains, restrictive trade policies pose risks. Ind-Ra expects goods and services exports to grow at 5.8% YoY, navigating these challenges.

In terms of sectoral insights, Ind-Ra provides a forecast of 7.3% YoY growth in the services sector for FY25. The report notes concerns about monsoon rainfall and industrial growth. On inflation, it expects retail and wholesale inflation at 4.8% and 2.2%, respectively, in FY25. The fiscal deficit target of 5.1% of GDP for FY25 is considered challenging but achievable, backed by better-than-expected revenue collections.

Despite concerns over negative net exports, Ind-Ra expects the current account deficit to remain manageable at 1.4% of GDP in FY25. The agency anticipates an improvement in capital account flows, contributing to a net addition of USD 68.4 billion in forex reserves, providing stability to the Indian rupee.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Jonathan Garner explains why Morgan Stanley prefers India despite the steep valuations

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Jonathan Garner, Chief Asia and Emerging Market Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley said while India has not yet seen true global appeal, the country’s share in the emerging market (EM) index or the Asia ex-Japan index is rising steadily.

India is in a virtuous cycle of strong nominal GDP growth, strong capital inflows, healthy corporate profits, and a more stable environment for investors than ever seen historically, says Jonathan Garner, Chief Asia and Emerging Market Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley. “So it is no surprise to us that India is in a persistent secular bull market.”

Comparing India with Japan, which is also among Morgan Stanley’s top picks, Garner said, India is clearly a costlier market with a return on equity (ROE) of about 16% and a price-to-book ratio (P/B) of four times, against Japan’s 10% ROE and a P/B of 1.5.

But despite its high valuations, second only to the United States globally, Garner sees India’s market growth more evenly spread across different company sizes, unlike the concentrated profitability in the US. He believes this broad-based growth underpins the confidence in India’s ability to sustain significant earnings growth, even at a premium valuation.

“The question for India is how much compounding have we got to go because it is worth paying a growth multiple for a growth stock or a growth market if they’re capable of sustaining earnings growth. And at the moment, we have confidence that 20% compounded EPS (earning per share) growth is going to be sustainable for India over a three to five year horizon. So it’s a very interesting story,” he said.

While India has not yet seen ‘true global appeal’, Garner pointed out that India’s share in the emerging market (EM) index or the Asia ex-Japan index is rising steadily.

Explaining why India has so far not seen inflows similar to those seen in Japan, he said, Japan includes globally recognised stocks that have been familiar to investors for years. Also, the Japanese market in index terms is roughly 3.5-4 times the size of India in free float market cap and it’s a developed market (DM). So, it can attract a much broader range of interest. “It’s (India is) still an EM specialist or Asia ex-Japan specialist market from a foreigner perspective,” said Garner.

Also Read | Japan loses its spot as world’s third-largest economy as it slips into recession

Garner also shared his view on India’s financial sector. “The key point is that the financial sector in India is going to benefit from rising economic activity, rising demand for financial products of all forms and growth in household and corporate leverage over time.”

 

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

Catch all the latest updates from the stock market here

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Neelkanth Mishra lists key investment themes for next 12-18 months

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Neelkanth Mishra, Chief Economist, Axis Bank, shared his outlook on the market, and discussed various investment themes.

“Themes like defence, electronics, and financials are going to be the areas of interest for us for next 12-18 months,” said Neelkanth Mishra, Chief Economist, Axis Bank, Head-Global Research, Axis Capital in an interview to CNBC-TV18.

Mishra expects investors to remain cautious ahead of elections. However, investments will be back post-elections.

Also Read | MSCI rejig on Feb 13: Jindal Stainless, PNB, BHEL, among others likely to enter global index

For the market, the earnings momentum and near-term valuations should play a much more important role and he believes that the Indian economy will continue to outperform the global setup.

Therefore the domestic cyclicals – companies that are more focused on the domestic economies – are likely to do well, he stated.

Sharing his views on banking sector, he said, “Banking sector as a whole seems to be oversold.” This, he said, was largely because of worries over excessive tightening of liquidity conditions. “But at some point, I think given that the credit demand is strong, and the bank as some pricing discipline sets in, I think some of the concerns that have plagued the sector should disappear.”

Also Read | Tata Power shares fall 7% on weak Q3 performance; key variables to watch out for over 12-18 months

He also shared his views on capital expenditure (capex) increase in sectors like railways, urban housing infrastructure, roads is in single digits. Over the last couple of years, the government has done the heavy lifting in terms of spending, and “I think that the government’s withdrawal of support is an attempt to calibrate its own presence in the economy given that the debt to gross domestic product (GDP) levels are higher than comfort levels.”

Mishra expects the industrial sector to be driven primarily by the private sector capex and pickup in construction, both in residential and commercial spaces, over the next three years.

For more, watch the accompanying video

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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RBI Monetary Policy Committee projects India’s real GDP growth at 7% for FY25

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

For the first three-quarters of FY25, the GDP growth rates are estimated at 7.2%, 6.8%, and 7%.

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has kept its growth projection for India’s GDP at 7% for the 2024-25 financial year, Governor Shaktikanta Das announced on Thursday, February 8. For the first three-quarters of FY25, the GDP growth rates are estimated at 7.2%, 6.8%, and 7%.

“This is the 3rd successive year of growth above 7%, FY24 momentum is expected to continue in FY25,” Das said. The governor stressed that the risks to growth are evenly balanced. The central bank governor said that private investments are picking up, and rural demand is gathering pace.

The consumer price index inflation target of 4% is yet to be reached, Das stated, noting that the monetary policy committee has to remain vigilant to ensure a successful last-mile navigation of disinflation. “Stable and low inflation at 4% will provide the bedrock of economic growth,” the Governor said.

The Reserve Bank of India did not hike its lending rate (repo rate), in line with the consensus expectations of market watchers and economists. The repo rate was left at 6.5%, unchanged for the sixth quarter in a row.

Catch all the live updates from RBI MPC announcement here 

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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Budget 2024: NK Singh says fiscal deficit target ‘daunting’, signals commitment to macro stability

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The government’s fiscal resolve is an important signal to investors and rating agencies on India’s continued adherence to its goals even in an election year, said the Chairperson of the 15th Finance Commission.

In her Budget 2024 address on February 1, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman outlined the government’s fiscal deficit target of 5.1% in the upcoming fiscal year (FY25). This goal aligns with a broader fiscal consolidation strategy aimed at bringing the deficit down to below 4.5% by FY26, Sitharaman said.

Fiscal deficit for the current financial year (FY24) is expected to be 5.8%, lower than the 5.9% budgeted estimate.

According to NK Singh, Chairperson of the 15th Finance Commission, the 0.7% expected fiscal consolidation is a “fairly daunting target’ in absolute terms.

Also Read | Budget 2024: FM Sitharaman delivers her shortest budget speech at 57 Minutes

“It’s a clear signal on the government’s continued commitment to a path of macroeconomic stability, and fiscal consolidation, and I have no doubt that the debt numbers will also show this kind of fiscal resolve and look in a southward direction,” he told CNBC-TV18 discussing his key takeaways from the six budget by FM Sitharaman.

This fiscal resolve, Singh noted, is very important as a signal to investors and rating agencies on India’s continued adherence to its goals even in an election year.

Singh also referred to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman‘s emphasis on Trust, Confidence, and the Blessings.

Also Read | Budget 2024 key highlights: Capex hike, Ayushman Bharat inclusions, EV ecosystem expansion to no tax changes

He discussed a notable shift in the states’ approach to fiscal management pointing out that states have purposefully utilised funds, with expenditure patterns showing a switch towards long-term multiplier growth.

Singh lauded this as a decisive move towards “Viksit Bharat,” emphasising the states’ crucial role in contributing to the nation’s long-term growth story.

For more, watch the accompanying video

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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China hits GDP growth goal as focus turns to support in 2024

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

China’s GDP grew 5.2% last year, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday, matching the rate that economists had expected in a Bloomberg survey. Beijing’s official target was “around 5%.” In an unusual move, Premier Li Qiang revealed the headline number a day earlier in Davos, Switzerland.

China reached its economic goal for 2023 as industrial production and investment climbed in the final stretch of the year. Now the focus is turning to what policymakers will do to support growth going forward.

Gross domestic product grew 5.2% last year, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed  onWednesday, matching the rate that economists had expected in a Bloomberg survey. Beijing’s official target was “around 5%.” In an unusual move, Premier Li Qiang revealed the headline number a day earlier in Davos, Switzerland.

For the October-December period, the economy expanded 5.2% from a year earlier and rose 1% from the previous quarter. Other indicators were mixed in the final month of 2023:

Industrial output rose 6.8% in December from a year ago, compared with a 6.6% increase projected by economists
Retail sales grew 7.4%, compared with a forecast for an 8% gain
Fixed-asset investment climbed 3% in the year, better than a predicted 2.9% rise
The urban jobless rate was 5.1% last month, up from 5% in November
“China’s economy withstood external pressures and overcame domestic challenges to rebound and improve in 2023,” the NBS said in a statement accompanying the data. The agency warned, though, that economic development “still faces some difficulties and challenges.”

The Beijing-set growth target was deemed conservative by many economists when it was set last March. But persistent deflationary pressures and the prolonged property slump proved major challenges through 2023, eventually spurring authorities to roll out more stimulus in the form of rate cuts and fiscal support to help achieve that goal.

Li stressed in Davos that last year’s target was reached without resorting to “massive stimulus,” adding to speculation about what support may look like this year as the government tries to retain economic momentum.

The biggest threat to the economy remains the property slump, which has weighed on business investment, undermined job creation and curbed consumer spending. Home prices fell the most since 2015 in December. The People’s Bank of China has made use of a lending program to boost property investment and construction, though it has so far refrained from taking bold steps such as cutting interest rates further.

Fiscal policy is seen taking a big role in driving growth this year. China is considering 1 trillion yuan ($139 billion) of new debt issuance under a so-called special sovereign bond plan, only the fourth such sale in the past 26 years.

Also Read: HDFC Bank’s US-listed shares fall 7%, most since April 2022 post Q3 results

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
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Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?