Tag: fiscal deficit

India’s fiscal deficit at 86.5% full-year target in February-end 2024

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The Indian government’s fiscal deficit between April and February of FY24 stood at ₹15 lakh crore and touched 86.5% of the revised annual target, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Thursday (March 28).

In the corresponding period last year, the fiscal deficit was 82.8% of the revised estimate (RE) of the Union Budget 2022-23. For 2023-24, the government’s fiscal deficit is estimated at ₹17.35 lakh crore, or 5.8% of the gross domestic product (GDP).

The government received ₹22.45 lakh crore (81.5% of RE 2023-24 of total receipts) up to February comprising ₹18.49 lakh crore of tax revenue (net), ₹3.6 lakh crore of non-tax revenue and ₹36,140 crore of non-debt capital receipts. Non-debt capital receipts consist of recovery of loans of ₹23,480 crore and miscellaneous capital receipts of ₹12,660 crore.

The data on the monthly account of the Union Government of India said ₹10.33,433 crore has been transferred to state governments as devolution of share of taxes by the Government of India up to February 2024, which is ₹2,25,345 crore higher than the previous year.

Total expenditure incurred by the government was ₹37.47 lakh crore (83.4% of corresponding RE 2023-24), out of which ₹29.41 lakh crore was on the revenue account and ₹8.06 lakh crore on the capital account. Out of the total revenue expenditure, ₹8.8 lakh crore was on account of interest payments and ₹3.6 lakh crore on account of major subsidies.

To meet the fiscal deficit, the gap between revenue receipt and expenditure, the government raised funds by issuing bonds in the market. The government plans to raise ₹7.5 lakh crore through market borrowing in the April-September period of 2024-25 to fund the revenue gap. Of the gross market borrowing of ₹14.13 lakh crore estimated for 2024-25, ₹7.5 lakh crore, or 53%, is planned to be borrowed in the first half.

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Why India will remain a top candidate for emerging market flows: Manulife’s Rana Gupta explains

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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India’s economy is growing even as the fiscal deficit is contracting. This situaton is a perfect combination for investors, and that’s why India is a strong candidate among emerging markets for foreign fund inflows, according to Rana Gupta, Senior Portfolio Manager and India Equity Specialist at Manulife Investment Management.

“In the last three to four years, India’s central fiscal deficit has come down from 9% to a now projected 5.1% (in financial year 2025). That’s a four percentage point fiscal contraction. But the economy is still growing at 6.5-7% real and probably 10-11% nominal. That’s a pretty incredible thing, right?” Gupta noted in a conversation with CNBC-TV18.

In her Budget 2024 speech on February 1, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman reiterated the government’s commitment to stick to its fiscal consolidation path, targeting fiscal deficit of 5.1% of the gross domestic product (GDP) target for FY25. The aim is to achieve deficit of 4.5% by FY26.

Also Read | Budget 2024: Govt lowers fiscal deficit to 5.1% of GDP for FY25

Gupta also shared his expectations on the US Federal Reserve’s policy actions in the coming months. Gupta anticipates June-July to be the start of a rate cut cycle.

Also Read | Fitch puts India’s fiscal deficit at 5.4% for FY25 — beyond govt’s target of 5.1%

He noted that the market is currently only seeking an assurance on rate cuts, and “it is more important that Fed is now on the watch and they are prepared to cut rates if the economy were to slow.”

In its latest policy announcement on January 31, the Jerome Powell-chaired Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left interest rates unchanged, within the 5.25% to 5.5% range, for the fourth consecutive time.

“The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%,” FOMC said in its statement, dashing hopes of a rate cut even at its next meeting in March. 

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Fitch puts India’s fiscal deficit at 5.4% for FY25 — beyond govt’s target of 5.1%

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Global ratings agency Fitch predicted on Monday, February 5, that the fiscal deficit will reach 5.4% of the GDP in FY25, more than the government’s target of 5.1% announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the interim budget on Thursday, February 1.

Fitch termed the government’s decision to lower the fiscal deficit target for FY24 to 5.8% of the GDP from 5.9% as a “modest change.” The deficit target of 5.1% in FY25 would keep the government on track to reach its goal of shrinking the deficit to 4.5% in FY26. But the agency still thinks that it will be challenging for the government to achieve its FY26 deficit target.

However, the rating agency also predicted that the process of fiscal consolidation could be set back by the surge in spending ahead of the general elections.

The 11% increase in capital expenditure for FY25 — if implemented as planned — could achieve real GDP growth of 6.5%. The rating agency said, “We believe India is well-placed to sustain higher rates of growth in the medium term relative to many of its peers, with the capex drive helping to underpin this view.”

The agency further said the slow pace of the fiscal consolidation process as an aftermath of the pandemic could expose India’s public finances in case of any major economic shocks.

“Trade-offs between economic growth and consolidation are likely to become more acute in the coming years, and we expect the government to maintain a core focus on economic growth outcomes, particularly by sustaining strong capex,” the New York and London-based agency added.

Earlier this week, Sitharaman, in an exclusive with Network18’s Editor-in-Chief Rahul Joshi, had said credit rating agencies should take note of India’s transparent fiscal glide path.

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Budget impact on RBI policy: Economists weigh in on fiscal deficit and monetary outlook

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The government’s lower than anticipated fiscal deficit target, at 5.1%, for the next financial year, has shifted the spotlight to the upcoming monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), scheduled on February 8. A low fiscal deficit eases concerns about excessive government spending, allowing the central bank to contemplate normalising its policies, including interest rates.

In a discussion with CNBC-TV18, prominent economists Pronab Sen, former chief statistician, Samiran Chakraborty, Chief India Economist at Citibank, Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor at SBI, and Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist at JPMorgan shared their view on Budget 2024 delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1, and expectations from the RBI monetary policy due to February 8.

Pronab Sen drew attention to the importance of stimulating private investments, which has been sluggish, suggesting that even a modest boost in this direction could be beneficial.

Regarding the fiscal deficit, Samiran Chakraborty, Chief India Economist at Citibank, indicated “In our sense, if the government has to meet their deficit target for FY24, then over the next couple of months the amount of spending that the government will have to do that will more or less take care of this frictional banking system liquidity deficit issue by end of March.”

Chakraborty also stressed that the RBI needs to communicate with the markets that the reason for the weighted average call rate to stay closer to the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate is purely a liquidity issue and nothing to do with the stance of monetary policy. MSF is the short-term lending rate at which RBI provides funds to scheduled commercial banks.

Read Here | Budget 2024: Govt lowers fiscal deficit to 5.1% of GDP for FY25

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor at SBI, discussed the potential shifts in government spending patterns towards conditional disbursements. Ghosh suggested a mechanism where funds are released only after previous amounts have been spent, thereby keeping government cash balances with the RBI rather than banks.

Ghosh proposed incorporating counter-cyclical elements into monetary policy, such as adjusting the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) based on prevailing liquidity conditions, to provide real-time stabilisation during periods of economic stress or surplus.

LCR is a regulatory requirement that mandates banks to hold a sufficient amount of high-quality liquid assets to cover short-term liquidity needs during times of financial stress. CRR is the portion of a bank’s total deposits that must be kept in reserve with the central bank, reducing the amount of funds available for lending and influencing the money supply in the economy.

Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist at JPMorgan, discussed the US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates unchanged. He noted that the Fed is in a favorable position with sustained US growth and moderating core inflation. This situation allows central banks in developed markets to adopt a patient approach towards addressing inflation concerns, indicating a likelihood of easing measures later in the year.

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Budget 2024: Govt lowers fiscal deficit to 5.1% of GDP for FY25

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The Centre has lowered the fiscal deficit target for the financial year 2024-25 to 5.1% of the gross domestic product (GDP), said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman while presenting the interim budget or vote-on-account on Thursday, February 1. The fiscal deficit for FY26 has been pegged at 4.5%.

The nominal GDP growth for the next financial year has been pegged at 10.5% against the 11% estimated earlier. The nominal GDP for BE 2024-25 has been projected at ₹3,27,71,808 crore, assuming 10.5% growth over the estimated nominal GDP of ₹2,96,57,745 crore, as per the First Advance Estimates of FY2023-24.

Helped by an improvement in tax buoyancy, the government managed to achieve a fiscal deficit of 5.8% against the budget estimate of 5.9% for the current financial year.

#BudgetWithCNBCTV18 | FY24 Total Expenditure Revised Est At ₹44.90 lk cr, says Finance Minister @nsitharaman

Here’s more #Budget2024 #CNBCTV18LIVE #BudgetSession #BudgetSession2024 pic.twitter.com/Jl40fle8UB

— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18Live) February 1, 2024

The FM refrained from providing any tax relief or announcing other populist measures before the general elections due in the next couple of months.

As per the Fiscal Responsibility & Budget Management (FRBM) Act, the government plans to achieve a fiscal deficit of 4.5% in 2025–26.

“We continue on the path of fiscal consolidation, as announced in my Budget Speech for 2021–22, to reduce the fiscal deficit below 4.5% by 2025–26. The fiscal deficit in 2024–25 is estimated to be 5.1% of GDP, adhering to that path,” she said.

In absolute terms, the fiscal deficit would be ₹16,85,494 crore against ₹17,34,773 crore for the current fiscal. At the same time, the effective revenue deficit would be 1.8% in the current financial year and 0.8% in the next financial year.

Revenue deficit (RD) refers to the excess of revenue expenditure over revenue receipts. Effective Revenue Deficit (ERD) is the difference between a revenue deficit and a grant-in-aid for the creation of capital assets.

To meet the fiscal deficit, the gap between revenue receipt and expenditure, the government raises funds by issuing bonds in the market.

“The gross and net market borrowings through dated securities during 2024-25 are estimated at ₹14.13 lakh and ₹11.75 lakh crore respectively. Both will be less than that in 2023-24.

Now, that the private investments are happening at scale, the lower borrowings by the central government will facilitate larger availability of credit for the private sector,” she said.

Experts react on fiscal deficit target

“The commitment to achieve a 4.6% fiscal deficit in FY26 seemed imperative, given the inclusion of Indian bonds in global indices,” said Amar Ambani, Executive Director, YES Securities.

The government has shown fiscal prudence and the low fiscal deficit was a “surprise,” said Sandeep Yadav, Head – Fixed Income, DSP Mutual Fund.

“While we were expecting fiscal consolidation, but the budget took all by surprise by showing a low fiscal deficit of 5.1%. Moreover, the assumptions of nominal growth at 10.5% and tax growth at 12% are very realistic, thus leading credence to the deficit numbers. Govt has shown prudence not just in fiscal deficit, but also in allocation of funds. While the overall expenditure has grown by just around 6%, the capital expenditure has grown by 17%,” he said.

Calling the interim budget “judicious,” UTI AMC’s Chief Investment Officer Vetri Subramaniam said, “This is a judicious interim budget. The degree of fiscal consolidation with a target of 5.1% in FY25 is more than anticipated and is positive for the softening of bond yields. Further, the reiteration of the fiscal target for FY26 gives the bond market medium-term visibility. The consolidation impacts expenditure including capex by the government.”

—PTI contributed to this story

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Budget 2024: NK Singh says fiscal deficit target ‘daunting’, signals commitment to macro stability

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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In her Budget 2024 address on February 1, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman outlined the government’s fiscal deficit target of 5.1% in the upcoming fiscal year (FY25). This goal aligns with a broader fiscal consolidation strategy aimed at bringing the deficit down to below 4.5% by FY26, Sitharaman said.

Fiscal deficit for the current financial year (FY24) is expected to be 5.8%, lower than the 5.9% budgeted estimate.

According to NK Singh, Chairperson of the 15th Finance Commission, the 0.7% expected fiscal consolidation is a “fairly daunting target’ in absolute terms.

Also Read | Budget 2024: FM Sitharaman delivers her shortest budget speech at 57 Minutes

“It’s a clear signal on the government’s continued commitment to a path of macroeconomic stability, and fiscal consolidation, and I have no doubt that the debt numbers will also show this kind of fiscal resolve and look in a southward direction,” he told CNBC-TV18 discussing his key takeaways from the six budget by FM Sitharaman.

This fiscal resolve, Singh noted, is very important as a signal to investors and rating agencies on India’s continued adherence to its goals even in an election year.

Singh also referred to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman‘s emphasis on Trust, Confidence, and the Blessings.

Also Read | Budget 2024 key highlights: Capex hike, Ayushman Bharat inclusions, EV ecosystem expansion to no tax changes

He discussed a notable shift in the states’ approach to fiscal management pointing out that states have purposefully utilised funds, with expenditure patterns showing a switch towards long-term multiplier growth.

Singh lauded this as a decisive move towards “Viksit Bharat,” emphasising the states’ crucial role in contributing to the nation’s long-term growth story.

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Budget 2024 | Fiscal deficit and capex numbers hold the key for market sentiment

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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In the upcoming Budget, all eyes are on the fiscal deficit, a key indicator that has sparked a divide among market experts. While some predict a base case scenario of a reduced fiscal deficit to 5.3%, optimists are leaning towards a 5.5% deficit. The government’s commitment to bringing the deficit down to 4.5% by FY26 is a central argument, with proponents suggesting that lower deficits in the coming fiscal years will curb potential inflation caused by high growth.

Amid pre-election expectations, the optimists assert that the Budget may carry populist promises, potentially leading to a higher fiscal deficit. This view gains strength as foreign funds are poised to invest a substantial $25 billion in Indian government bonds due to index inclusion, providing a financial cushion for the government’s expenditure plans.

Also Read | Budget 2024 expectations: Priorities highlighted for poor women, youth, and farmers

Another critical number to be closely monitored is the capital expenditure (capex), which witnessed a remarkable 35% growth in FY24. The baseline expectation is a more conservative 10% growth this time, maintaining it at 3.2% of GDP, akin to the FY24 levels. However, optimists, exemplified by Citibank, project a 20% increase in capex to Rs 12 lakh crore. If true, this could spell positive outcomes for construction and railway company stocks.

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Centre’s fiscal deficit at 55% full-year target at December-end 2023: CGA

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The Centre’s fiscal deficit came in lower at ₹9.82 lakh crore or 55% of the annual budget target at December-end 2023, as per the data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Wednesday. The deficit was 59.8% of the budget estimate of 2022-2023 in the corresponding period last year.

For 2023–24, the government’s fiscal deficit is estimated to be at ₹17.86 lakh crore or 5.9% of the GDP. The government’s total revenue stood at ₹20.71 lakh crore (76.3% of corresponding BE 2023-24 of total receipts) as of December 2023.

This comprised ₹17.29 lakh crore tax revenue (net), ₹3.12 lakh crore of non-tax revenue and ₹29,650 crore of non-debt capital receipts. Non-debt capital receipts consist of the recovery of loans and miscellaneous capital receipts.

The CAG’s monthly account data further said ₹7.47 lakh crore has been transferred to state governments as devolution of share of taxes by the central government up to December 2023, which is ₹1,37,851 crore higher than the previous year.

The total expenditure incurred by the Centre was ₹30.54 lakh crore (67.8% of corresponding BE 2023-24), out of which ₹23.80 lakh crore is on revenue account and ₹6.73 lakh crore on capital account.

Out of the total revenue expenditure, ₹7,48,207 crore was on account of interest payments and ₹2,76,804 crore towards major subsidies.

Continuing the path of fiscal consolidation, the government intends to bring the fiscal deficit below 4.5% of GDP by 2025–26.

Finance Nirmala Sitharaman is expected to outline the details of the fiscal deficit for the current fiscal and 2024–25, along with the Centre’s market borrowing programme, in her interim budget on Thursday.

—With inputs from PTI

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Fiscal deficit aim of 5.3% attainable for next year, says former Chief Economic Adviser

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Dr KV Subramanian, India’s former Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) and CNBC-TV18’s 2024 Budget Editor, exuded optimism in the country’s ability to achieve a fiscal deficit target of 4.5% for the fiscal year 2025–26. Dr Subramanian highlighted the positive trajectory, indicating a potential fiscal deficit ranging between 5.2% and 5.3% for the upcoming fiscal year.

Speaking with CNBC-TV18 in an exclusive interview, the former CEA said, “I was looking at the tax buoyancy ratio over the last 10 years, and it has averaged between about 1.5 to 1.6. That is very good this year as well. I think the tax buoyancy ratio will be about 1.6. So, I expect, therefore, that [the government] will be able to credibly promise consolidation in the in the fiscal deficit number for the forthcoming year.”

He lauded the government’s diligence in achieving budgeted fiscal deficit numbers in previous years, dispelling any scepticism about the government’s commitment to the glide path.

Speaking of the key numbers he would be most interested in looking at, Dr Subramanian listed three. Firstly, he projected a real growth rate of 7%. Secondly, he anticipated growth in government revenues exceeding 13%, underpinned by a tax buoyancy ratio of 1.6. Lastly, the IMF Executive Director pointed to the fiscal deficit as the third crucial indicator, expressing his expectation that it would fall within the range of 5.3% to 5.4%. This aligns with the overarching goal of achieving a fiscal deficit of 4.5% in the fiscal year 2025–26.

Dr Subramanian debunked any claims suggesting a deviation from the prescribed glide path, asserting that the government has consistently demonstrated diligence in meeting fiscal deficit targets. He drew attention to the successful realisation of the 5.9% budget estimate for the current fiscal year, further bolstering confidence in the government’s fiscal management.

Also Read: Improved tax collections, a foundation to growth, says economic review

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Neelkanth Mishra says fiscal consolidation is important; other factors to help economy

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Neelkanth Mishra, Head of Global Research at Axis Capital, in an exclusive chat with CNBC-TV18 ahead of Budget 2024, discussed his view on the Indian government’s fiscal consolidation strategy and its implications for the economy and market stability.

Mishra emphasised the importance of the government’s commitment to reducing the fiscal deficit from 5.9% to 4.5% by FY26. He highlighted two possible approaches: a gradual reduction of 70 basis points (bps) each year or a staggered approach with a reduction of 50 bps followed by a more substantial reduction in subsequent years. One basis point is a one-hundredth of a percentage point or 0.01%.

Mishra said while the level of fiscal deficit itself does not directly impact gross domestic product (GDP) growth, it’s the change in fiscal deficit that influences economic growth. Despite fiscal consolidation efforts in FY24, which saw a 50 bps reduction, India’s GDP still maintained a robust growth rate of around 7%. Mishra attributed this resilience to the economy’s strong momentum.

Read Here | Interim Budget 2024: Government unlikely to announce big bang populist schemes, say economists

He suggested that while the Indian economy could withstand moderate fiscal consolidation, more aggressive measures could potentially stimulate stronger growth. However, Mishra cautioned that in the event of global economic instability, particularly in the US, the government might need to increase fiscal support. Therefore, maintaining flexibility in fiscal policy is essential to address any unforeseen challenges.

Ashish Gupta, Chief Investment Officer at Axis Mutual Fund, echoed Mishra’s sentiments regarding the market’s expectations. He noted that the market has already priced in a fiscal deficit target of 5.3-5.4%, and minor deviations are unlikely to significantly impact market dynamics.

Gupta said it’s important to consider both demand and supply factors in the bond market, including investor appetite and the Reserve Bank of India’s open market operations (OMOs).

Read Here | Budget 2024: IVCA bats for tax parity on investments in listed and unlisted securities

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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