5 Minutes Read

China central bank cuts reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% points

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The PBOC cut the ratio by 0.5 percentage points after the country’s markets closed Monday. The cut, which comes into effect Tuesday, means that most large Chinese banks will have a reserve ratio of 17 percent, Reuters reported.

China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, has cut further the reserve requirement ratio, the amount of cash the country’s banks have to hold, in an attempt to calm investor jitters over the world’s second largest economy.

The PBOC cut the ratio by 0.5 percentage points after the country’s markets closed Monday. The cut, which comes into effect Tuesday, means that most large Chinese banks will have a reserve ratio of 17 percent, Reuters reported.

This is the fifth time since last February that the PBoC has cut its ratio, the last cut being on October 23.

China’s stock markets had another torrid day Monday: The Shanghai composite pared some losses to close down 79.38 points, or 2.87 percent, at 2,687.82 points, after earlier trading down as much as 4.63 percent. The Shenzhen composite slid 93.18 points, or 5.36 percent to 1,643.35 points.

Latest government figures show that the Chinese economic growth rate slowed to a 25-year low of 6.9 percent in 2015 and 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.

In a statement reported by Reuters, the PBOC said the move was made to ensure ample supply of liquidity in the system.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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US shale’s message for OPEC: Above $40, we are coming back

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Continental Resources Inc, led by billionaire wildcatter Harold Hamm, is prepared to increase capital spending if US crude reaches the low- to mid-USD 40s range, allowing it to boost 2017 production by more than 10 percent, chief financial official John Hart said last week.

For leading US shale oil producers, USD 40 is the new USD 70.

Less than a year ago major shale firms were saying they needed oil above USD 60 a barrel to produce more; now some say they will settle for far less in deciding whether to crank up output after the worst oil price crash in a generation.

Their latest comments highlight the industry’s remarkable resilience, but also serve as a warning to rivals and traders: a retreat in US oil production that would help ease global oversupply and let prices recover may prove shorter than some may have expected.

Continental Resources Inc, led by billionaire wildcatter Harold Hamm, is prepared to increase capital spending if US crude reaches the low- to mid-USD 40s range, allowing it to boost 2017 production by more than 10 percent, chief financial official John Hart said last week.

Rival Whiting Petroleum Corp, the biggest producer in North Dakota’s Bakken formation, will stop fracking new wells by the end of March, but would “consider completing some of these wells” if oil reached USD 40 to USD 45 a barrel, Chairman and CEO Jim Volker told analysts. Less than a year ago, when the company was still in spending mode, Volker said it might deploy more rigs if US crude hit USD 70.

While the comments were couched with caution, they serve as a reminder of how a dramatic decline in costs and rapid efficiency gains have turned US shale, initially seen by rivals as a marginal, high cost sector, into a major player – and a thorn in the side of big OPEC producers.

Nimble shale drillers are now helping mitigate the nearly 70-percent slide crude price rout by cutting back output, but may also limit any rally by quickly turning up the spigots once prices start recovering from current levels just above USD 30.

The threat of a shale rebound is “putting a cap on oil prices,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC. “If there’s some bullish outlook for demand or the economy, they will try to get ahead of the curve and increase production even sooner.”

Some producers have already began hedging future production, with prices for 2017 oil trading at near USD 45 a barrel, which could put a floor under any future production cuts.

Global ambitions

While the worst oil downturn since the 1980s sounds the death knell for scores of debt-laden shale producers, it has also hastened the decline in costs of hydraulic fracturing and improvements of the still-developing technology.

For example, Hess Corp., which pumps one of every 15 barrels of North Dakota crude, cut the cost of a new Bakken oil well by 28 percent last year.

What once helped fatten margins is now key to survival in what Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi described last week as the “harsh” reality of a global market in which the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries is no longer willing to curb its supplies to bolster prices.

While Deloitte auditing and consulting warns that a third of US oil producers may face bankruptcy, leading shale producers say their ambitions go beyond just outrunning domestic rivals.

“It’s no longer enough to be the low cost producer in US horizontal shale,” Bill Thomas, chairman of EOG Resources Inc , said on Friday. “EOG’s goal is to be competitive, low-cost oil producer in the global market.”

Thomas did not say what price would spur EOG to boost output this year, but said it had a “premium inventory” of 3,200 well locations that can yield returns of 30 percent or more with oil at USD 40.

Apache Corp, forecasts its output will drop by as much as 11 percent this year, but said it would probably manage to match 2015 North American production if oil averaged USD 45 this year.

One reason shale producers can be so fleet-footed is the record backlog of wells that have already been drilled but wait to get fractured to keep oil trapped in shale rocks flowing.

There were 945 such wells in North Dakota, birthplace of the US shale boom in December, compared to 585 in mid-2014, when prices peaked, according to the latest available data from the Department of Mineral Resources. Their numbers are growing as firms like Whiting keep drilling, but hold off with fracking.

Some warn that fracking the uncompleted wells can offer only a short-term supply boost and a sustained increase would require costly drilling of new wells and therefore higher prices.

“It’s going to take a move up to USD 55 before we see anyone plan new production,” says Carl Larry, director of business development for oil and gas at Frost & Sullivan.

To be sure, it is far from certain whether oil prices will even reach USD 40 any time soon. Morgan Stanley and ANZ expect average prices in the low USD 30s for the full year.

Some analysts also warn resuming drilling quickly may prove hard after firms laid off thousands of workers and idled more than three-quarters of their rigs since late 2014.

In fact, John Hess, chief executive of Hess Corp last week took issue with labeling US shale oil as a “swing producer.” Hess told Reuters in an interview that US shale firms should be rather considered as “short-cycle” producers, which might need up to a year to stop or restart production.

And even scarred veterans of past boom-bust oil cycles are not sure what will happen once prices start to recover – during the last big upswing a decade ago, shale oil did not even exist.

“We are a little concerned that this time there is one dynamic we’ve never had previously,” said Darrell Hollek, vice president of US onshore at Anadarko Petroleum Corp.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Oil still under pressure, but bulls are on the run

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

A week after WTI crude oil fell to its lowest level in more than a decade, some oil industry stakeholders appear to be hard at work trying to find reasons why the worst is over for crude.

The hunt for a crude oil bottom continues. But for now, at least, the bulls appear to have some wind at their backs.

A week after WTI crude oil fell to its lowest level in more than a decade, some oil industry stakeholders appear to be hard at work trying to find reasons why the worst is over for crude.

Over the course of the week, oil ministers from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Nigeria have all been saying an OPEC production freeze—which may help stabilize prices—is likely.

In a Friday interview with CNBC’s “Fast Money,” Nigeria oil minister Emmanuel Kachikwu said that one a freeze has been initiated, “I’m certainly hoping from prices in the range of $45 to $50, that’s what I’m putting my fingers on.”

He intoned: “Is there a scientific basis for that? Probably not.”

Never mind that Iran’s oil minister called such a freeze a “joke.” Even if it does happen, commitments on the part of certain countries to simply not produce more than they already do would be cold comfort for the oil bulls, given the global supply glut.

So how about a coordinated production cut — the sort of market-manipulating action that an organization like OPEC is arguably designed to take?

In Wednesday remarks, Saudi oil minister Ali Al-Naimi dismissed such a step out of hand. “This is not going to happen because not many countries are going to deliver even if they say they will cut production,” the official said. “So there is no sense in wasting our time seeking production cuts.”

The lack of a synchronized message reinforced a belief among many market watchers that the formerly powerful cartel appears well past its prime. Oil trader Bob Iaccino of Path Trading Partners told CNBC that “OPEC essentially doesn’t exist anymore.”

In addition to the coordination issue, OPEC’s power has been severely curtailed by the incredible growth of U.S. oil production.

“The U.S. is the marginal producer now, it’s not OPEC,” Iaccino said in a recent interview on CNBC’s “Futures Now.” He added: “It’s not going to be OPEC that says we’re boosting a hundred million barrels a day or cutting a million—it’s the U.S.”

Still, due to factors related to the seasonality of gasoline production, Iaccino does see crude oil finding a “medium-term bottom,” and rising to $40 per barrel. That is more than $7 above Friday’s settlement price. He doesn’t see it getting much above $40, however.

That would still require a significant break of oil’s recent trading range. Save a few high and low ticks, over the last several weeks WTI has appeared to have become comfortably ensconced between $29 on the downside and $36 on the upside.

Meanwhile, a look to the options market shows what a long-shot Iaccino’s target is considered to be. The way the April crude oil option with a striking price of $40 is trading, the chance of oil finding itself above $40 when the April futures contract expires in late March is considered to be lower than 10 percent.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Asia trades mixed; China shares tumble, with Shanghai down 4.1%

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Chinese markets opened in negative territory, with the main Shanghai composite down 4.07 percent while the Shenzhen composite slipped 5.7 percent.

Chinese markets tumbled at the open Monday, but other markets in Asia were mixed by mid-morning, with Japan extending its gains from the previous week. Analysts expect some rocky trading this week amid a deluge of economic data in the region.

Chinese markets opened in negative territory, with the main Shanghai composite down 4.07 percent while the Shenzhen composite slipped 5.7 percent.

“Markets look set for a volatile week as a raft of data releases globally set markets up for a dramatic reweighting of growth expectations,” wrote Angus Nicholson, a market analyst at IG, in his morning note.

The Japanese benchmark index, Nikkei 225, was up 0.4 percent, after earlier trading up as much as 1.5 percent. Last week, the index added about 1.39 percent. Early movers on the index included Sharp.

Shares of the troubled Japanese electronics maker were down as much as 4.55 percent in early trade before retracing some of the losses to trade down 3.79 percent. Its shares have fallen 26 percent between February 23 and February 26. Sharp shares fell after its takeover deal from Taiwan’s Foxconn, which was announced last Thursday, was put on a hold. The latter said it would not sign the deal until Sharp clarified previously undisclosed contingent liabilities, reported Reuters.

On Monday, Sharp said there was no deadline for finalizing a deal, following a report over the weekend from the Nikkei setting March 7 as the timeline for an agreement.

Across the Korean Strait, the Kospi was up 0.25 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.59 percent.

Australian’s S&P/ASX 200’s was up 0.72 percent in afternoon trade, with most sectors gaining. The heavily-weighted financials sector was up 0.72 percent, while the gold sector fell 2.10 percent.

Despite expected gains in shares Monday, analysts also believe risk appetite remain “exceptionally weak” as more investors have turned to safe-haven assets in recent weeks. Vishnu Varathan from Mizuho Bank wrote in a morning note, “U.S. 10-year bond yields dropping below 1.8 percent and sharp gains in safe-haven Japanese yen and gold prove this point.”

Economic data due this week include Japan’s industrial production numbers on Monday, Australia’s fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and Chinese factory activity data. Japan’s January retail sales data are also due today.

In Asian hours, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for April delivery erased losses of over 0.4 percent to trade up 0.15 percent at USD 32.83 a barrel; US crude futures gained about 3 percent last week.

Global benchmark Brent gained about 0.8 percent to USD 35.38 a barrel as of 9.47 a.m. HK/SIN time; it added about 6.33 percent last week.

Energy plays were mixed in Asia, with Santos up by 0.78 percent, Woodside Petroleum losing 0.7 percent and Inpex trading flat. Chinese mainland energy plays were mostly lower, with China Oilfield shedding 4.08 percent.

“Global crude prices are convulsing (albeit at rather low levels) amid ‘on-off’ hopes of global oil production cuts. This adds yet another layer of volatility to an already bifurcated global market,” Varathan added in his note.

In the currency market, the yen maintained its strength against the dollar at the 113 handle, with the pair trading down 0.54 percent at 113.38 as of 9.50 a.m. HK/SIN.

The Chinese yuan was marginally weaker against the dollar, with the pair up 0.13 percent at 6.5478. The People’s Bank of China set Monday’s yuan mid-point at 6.5452.

Stateside on Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 0.34 percent, while the S&P 500 ended lower by 0.19 percent. The Nasdaq composite gained 0.18 percent.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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US crude hits $34 on gas demand, output cap hope

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Brent crude futures rose USD 1.47, or 4.2 percent, to USD 36.76 per barrel at 9:28 a.m. ET (1428 GMT), about USD 2 above an intraday low of USD 34.73.

Crude oil prices reversed early losses on Friday, with Brent on track for its first weekly gain in a month, as strong US gasoline demand and hopes of OPEC action outweighed concerns over fundamental oversupply.

Brent crude futures rose USD 1.47, or 4.2 percent, to USD 36.76 per barrel at 9:28 a.m. ET (1428 GMT), about USD 2 above an intraday low of USD 34.73.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up USD 1.33, or 4 percent, at USD 34.40 a barrel, off a low of USD 32.76.

Futures extended gains after government data showed US economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter, but not as sharply as initially thought.

Gross domestic product increased at a 1.0 percent annual rate instead of the previously reported 0.7 percent pace, the Commerce Department said on Friday in its second GDP estimate.

The gains, if they hold, would mark the third consecutive daily increase for Brent and the fifth for US benchmark WTI.

Traders said the rises were driven by short positions closed ahead of Brent’s expiry next week and by strong demand for gasoline in the United States.

But analysts said the oversupplied market, which many do not expect to balance until early next year, would pull prices back down in the near term.

“I don’t think it is fundamentally justified … I don’t think it will last,” Tamas Varga, oil analyst at PVM in London, said of the rise in prices.

“I don’t think it is fundamentally justified … I don’t think it will last,” Tamas Varga, oil analyst at PVM in London, said of the rise in prices.

Prices had also received a boost from Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino saying late on Thursday that Qatar, Russia and Saudi Arabia had agreed to a meeting in mid-March as part of efforts to stabilize oil markets.

Strong gasoline demand in the United States was a big support. Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed gasoline inventories falling last week for the first time since early November, suggesting that consumers could gobble up more of the world’s oil products than expected.

“The idea that gasoline demand is actually rising suggests that perhaps the lower prices of crude are actually prompting a greater usage of this product (gasoline),” said Vyanne Lai, oil analyst at National Australia Bank.

The data is a glimmer of hope for markets grappling with a glut exacerbated by crude production that is exceeding demand by 1 million to 2 million barrels per day (bpd), though Iran’s target of increasing its exports by 1 million bpd within the next year looms over the market.

In the longer term, however, analysts expect oil prices to rise again.

Investment bank Jefferies called current prices unsustainable and said that production declines across most of the important non-OPEC producers is likely to set the stage for an oil price recovery in the second half of this year.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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Budget 2016: How world’s fastest-growing economy will spend its cash

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The global economy is stuttering, the rupee is within striking distance of a record low against the dollar and investors frustrated with the government’s stalling reform drive are yanking out funds from the stock market, leading to portfolio outflows of USD 2 billion so far in 2016, according to DBS.

Budgeting in a massive economy like India is no easy feat, but this year’s task is especially tough for finance minister Arun Jaitley.

The global economy is stuttering, the rupee is within striking distance of a record low against the dollar and investors frustrated with the government’s stalling reform drive are yanking out funds from the stock market, leading to portfolio outflows of USD 2 billion so far in 2016, according to DBS.

All this provides a somber backdrop for Monday’s annual budget, an important political event in which the government outlines its spending plans for the fiscal year (April-March in India’s case), announces changes to complex tax laws and often introduces new foreign investment rules.

Jaitley must now decide whether he wants to shore up government finances or boost the country’s creaky infrastructure and repair the balance sheets of state-run banks suffering from loans gone sour.

Last week, the finance ministry proclaimed the budget would make India a haven of stability amid the current global malaise. Indeed, with more than 7 percent annual economic growth in 2015, the nation stands out among both developed and emerging markets but it remains to be seen whether New Delhi can sustain that pace.

Government finances

Fiscal consolidation is perhaps the most pressing element in this year’s budget. The debate is whether Jaitley should maintain the current fiscal deficit target at 3.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) or lift it. The former could stymie growth while the latter could push up borrowing costs.

HSBC expects Jaitley to choose a wider deficit, in the 3.6 to 3.9 percent range, to accommodate mounting spending pressures, such as the USD 16 billion salary hike for civil servants recommended by the Seventh Pay Commission. While that’s a short-term fillip to growth, the longer-term consequences are dire.

“A higher fiscal impulse could be met with some degree of crowding out,” HSBC explained in a recent report, referring to a phenomenon where higher state spending pushes up interest rates and reduces private investment.

“Moreover, public debt ratios are likely to tick higher. A credible discussion on the quality of spending and the future path of consolidation will become critical, especially because the 2017-2018 [deficit] target of 3 percent is even more challenging.”

DBS economist Radhika Rao agreed, stating that any overshoot in spending beyond 3.8 to 3.9 percent of GDP would derail recent consolidation efforts-budget deficits have narrowed for the past five consecutive years-and draw the ire of rating agencies.

Moody’s, which rates India at just a notch above junk status, has said it’s only looking for a modest deficit reduction.

Infrastructure

The other dilemma for Jaitley is infrastructure spending, likely another key feature of Monday’s budget.

Economists are concerned that the Pay Commission’s endorsement for higher wages could curtail the pledging of funds to upgrade crumbling infrastructure.

Benefits to citizens aside, better railways and roads promise an economic boost as well, since infrastructure accounts for 38 percent of total industrial production, BNP Paribas estimates.

Banks

Jaitley will also have to take into consideration the recapitalization of state lenders in his planning.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has demanded banks recognize bad debt by March, after which the government has promised an injection of 250 billion rupees (USD 4 billion) into these banks, with more expected from private capital raising.

Total stressed loans stood at USD 99 billion as of September, Reuters reported this week, citing official statistics.

But last month, RBI chief Raghuram Rajan asked New Delhi to more than double its contribution, pointing out that its current pledge may be inadequate.

More details on bank reform, including the seven-pronged program known as “Indradhanush” (rainbow in Hindi) and the creation of a holding company structure for state lenders, would also be welcome developments on Monday, HSBC said.

Rural development

Subdued consumer demand in rural areas is another expense factor.

Poor monsoons and weak agricultural prices have hurt purchasing power of villagers and the budget could address this by announcing safety net measures, such as crop insurance, HSBC said.

Implications

If Monday’s budget is considered a success, it could mark a return of Modi mania.

“If Modi gets his budget correct, recapitalize the banks and have a target for continued growth, India represents a great opportunity for investors over the next few years,” Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Advantage Funds told CNBC this week.

“Outside of America, I would still put India up there as being one with the most opportunities … [and] emerging Europe.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Risk of global recession rising: Citi

The risk of the global economy falling into a recession is rising as fundamentals remain poor, analysts at Citigroup said in a note Wednesday.

“We are currently in a highly precarious environment for global growth and asset markets after two to three years of relative calm,” Citigroup said, noting that global growth was “unusually weak” in the fourth quarter at around 2.0 percent on-year.

“The most recent deterioration in the global outlook is due to a moderate worsening in the prospects for the advanced economies, a large increase in the uncertainty about the advanced economies’ outlook (notably for the U.S.) and a tightening in financial conditions everywhere,” the bank said.

At the same time, fundamentals remain poor, including concerns about a structural and cyclical slowdown in China and its “unsustainable” currency regime, excessive leverage and rising regional risks, such as the risk the U.K. may exit the European Union, it said.

To be sure, Citigroup is defining a global recession as growth below 2 percent, differing significantly from the usual requirement of gross domestic product (GDP) falling for two consecutive quarters.

The bank also doesn’t expect a global recession by any definition as its base case, forecasting global growth at 2.5 percent this year, based on official statistics, and around 2.2 percent, if adjusting for the possibility of Chinese data not being measured accurately.

Citi’s estimates are significantly below the International Monetary Fund’s forecast for 3.4 percent global growth this year, up from its 3.1 percent expectation for 2015. However, the IMF did warn Wednesday that it might cut its forecast for 2016.

Citigroup is particularly concerned about U.S. economic growth.

“Should the U.S. economy falter, it would be difficult to identify any major economy that could be the growth engine for the world in the near-term,” it said, noting that China’s growth is slowing.

U.S. growth doesn’t need to slow much for the global economic outlook to darken, Citigroup said.

“A material slowdown in the U.S., even short of a recession, would still be a major headwind for the world economy: at this point, it could make a global recession according to our definition almost unavoidable,” it said. “The damage to global growth conditions would come from three sources: deteriorating financial conditions globally, weaker demand from the U.S. and weakening (consumer and business) sentiment more broadly (through contagion).”

It sees another concern: Major central banks may not step up.

“Prior periods of serious economic weakness elicited major policy responses,” it said, citing quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). “No such major stimulus may be forthcoming any time soon during the current period of weakness.”

That may exacerbate the growth risks, Citigroup said.

“Currently, there are doubts about the prospects for an effective policy response in the event of a downturn in many economies, which may make households, businesses and investors more cautious about the outlook,” it said.

Follow CNBC International on Twitter and Facebook.

—By CNBC.Com’s Leslie Shaffer; Follow her on Twitter @LeslieShaffer1

 5 Minutes Read

China has more billionaires than US: Report

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Granted Hurun’s numbers are subject to some debate, as they differ from those of Forbes and other wealth research firms, which still put the US far ahead of China when it comes to billionaires. According to Forbes’ 2015 China report, China has 335 billionaires compared with 536 in the US

China now has the most billionaires despite the country’s economic slowdown, stock market plunge and crackdown on corruption, according to a China-based wealth research firm.

The Hurun Report said China now has 568 billionaires versus the United States’ 535, giving it the largest population of billionaires in the world.

According to Hurun, China’s billionaire population first surpassed the US in August, and grew by a total of 90 last year.

Granted Hurun’s numbers are subject to some debate, as they differ from those of Forbes and other wealth research firms, which still put the US far ahead of China when it comes to billionaires. According to Forbes’ 2015 China report, China has 335 billionaires compared with 536 in the US

Worldwide, Hurun said there are now 2,188 billionaires, up 99 from 2014 and marking a new record. Yet it said billionaire growth globally is slowing along with the economy. The total wealth of the world’s billionaires grew 9 percent in 2015 to USD 7.3 trillion — more than the combined GDPs of Germany and the UK

For the first time, Beijing has also passed New York as the billionaire capital of the world, 100 to 95, Hurun said.

“Despite its own slowdown and falling stockmarkets, China minted more new billionaires than any other country in the world last year, mainly on the back of new listings,” said Rupert Hoogewerf, chairman and chief researcher of Hurun Report.

Hoogewerf couldn’t be reached for comment on why Hurun’s numbers differ from Forbes‘. And determining people’s personal wealth is hardly an exact science — especially in an economy as opaque as China’s.

Yet he has previously told CNBC that if anything, Hurun’s China count is low.

“For every billionaire that Hurun Report has found, I estimate we have missed at least two,” he said last year.

“Some people deliberately make their wealth a secret because … they gained it through illegal ways.” he said. “Some others simply prefer to keep a low profile.”

Hurun said the main source of wealth for China’s billionaires is real estate, producing 117 billionaires. Manufacturing created 94 of their billionaires, while technology created 68.

The richest man in China was Wang Jianlin, chairman of the Dalian Wanda Group, with USD 26 billion.

The report said China has the largest number of billionaires under age 40, with 28. China also has the largest number of self-made women, with 93 of 124 self-made women billionaires worldwide, according to Hurun.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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China shares stumble, as Asia markets trade mixed

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

China’s Shanghai composite was lower by 1.22 percent, while the Shenzhen composite dropped 1.4 percent.

Some Asian markets rebounded Thursday following Wall Street’s reversal of sharp intraday losses overnight on the back of higher oil prices, but it wasn’t enough to support the Chinese, Australian and Hong Kong markets.

China’s Shanghai composite was lower by 1.22 percent, while the Shenzhen composite dropped 1.4 percent. Concerns were raised over China this week after the People’s Bank of China set the yuan mid-point rate notably lower at 6.5273 to the dollar on Tuesday, down 0.17 percent from Monday’s fix. Today’s mid-point was set at 6.5318.

Francis Cheung, head of China and Hong Kong strategy at CLSA, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that Chinese markets are doing somewhat better, despite the sell-offs this week.

“We are seeing a little more support from the market, mainly because I think people are expecting more of a stimulus from the government.”

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down 0.65 percent, while the Japanese benchmark Nikkei 225 index was up about 0.5 percent. Across the Korean Strait, the Kospi gained 0.41 percent.

The yen, which surged against the dollar in recent sessions, maintained the 112 handle; the pair traded at 112.12 as of 8.15 a.m. HK/SIN time. A stronger yen is usually a negative for Japan’s exporters as it reduces overseas profits when converted into local currency. But exporters saw mixed fortune early on, with Toyota down 2 percent, while Canon gained 0.74 percent.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200, which saw gains of 0.37 percent early on, lost support and traded down 0.1 percent. The heavily weighted financials sector was a drag, down 0.89 percent.

The index previously suffered two consecutive sessions of declines, closing down 2.1 percent on Wednesday.

“ASX suffered again at the hands of oil prices (overlay BHP’s share price and WTI), and it’s also under pressure due to valuations and a market that had added 329 points from the 10 February low to the high on Tuesday. This was a 7 [percent] move, but there are no excuses for yesterday’s savagery,” Evan Lucas, market strategist at IG, wrote in his morning note.

Online job-search company Seek, an early mover on the index, was up 6.34 percent. The company reported a 50 percent jump in interim net profit to AUSD275.1 million (USD 198.2 million), and a dividend of 21 Australian cents per share. The sale of Seek’s education business, IDP Education, and strong revenues from China helped boost profit.

Oil prices retreated again in Asian trading hours with US crude dropping 0.47 percent to USD 32 a barrel, after settling up 0.88 percent in overnight trade. Global benchmark Brent was lower by 0.84 percent at USD 34.12 a barrel, following a 3.4 percent gain during US hours.

The overnight bounce came as data showed US gasoline demand over the past four weeks rose more than 5 percent compared with a year earlier. But US government data showed crude stockpiles rose 3.5 million barrels last week to more than 507 million barrels.

“The market…was looking for some good news for once and took its cue from falling gasoline inventories and gasoline demand up 1.8 [percent], a hint that the long looked-for increase in consumer-led driving and spending might be afoot,” said David de Garis, a director and senior economist for fixed income, currencies and commodities at National Australia Bank, in a morning note.

Oil came under pressure this week after Saudi Arabia’s oil minister dashed hopes for a possible production cuts.

Elsewhere, sterling remained weak against the dollar on concerns over a possible “Brexit.” The pair traded at 1.3927 as of 6.10 a.m. HK/SIN.

Stateside, the Dow Jones industrial average closed up 0.3 percent, erasing a 266-point intraday drop. The S&P 500 gained 0.44 percent after trading more than 1 percent lower intraday and the Nasdaq composite was up 0.87 percent.

Companies that will announce earnings in Asia today include South32, Galaxy Entertainment and CITIC Telecom.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Apple-FBI spat: Bill Gates on the fence?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Bill Gates is supportive of investigators’ efforts to force Apple to help them crack into an iPhone used by one of the San Bernardino shooters, saying a balance needs to be struck between government access and the need to preserve data security.

Bill Gates is supportive of investigators’ efforts to force Apple to help them crack into an iPhone used by one of the San Bernardino shooters, saying a balance needs to be struck between government access and the need to preserve data security.

While clarifying he doesn’t support untrammeled government access to personal data, the Microsoft co-founder’s position runs contrary to those of many tech executives who have backed Apple Inc. The heads of Facebook, Twitter and Google have all sided with Apple on the grounds that complying with the government’s request would ultimately undermine data privacy.

Gates stated in a handful of interviews that it’s not uncommon for phone companies and banks to hand over customer information to investigators. He questioned why tech companies should be treated differently.

In particular, he took issue with Apple CEO Tim Cook’s argument that helping crack the shooter’s iPhone would set a broader precedent.

“They are not asking for some general thing, they are asking for a particular case,” Gates, who remains a technical adviser to Microsoft Corp., told the Financial Times in a Tuesday interview.

And in a lengthy interview on Charlie Rose on PBS, Gates said that if government is “blind,” it might not be able to stop online crimes such as tax evasion, child pornography and, most importantly, terrorism.

He added in an interview with The Associated Press that public opinion will likely be on the government’s side, saying “I do think people want the government to act on their behalf if they feel like the safeguards are there.”

But Gates later on Tuesday said that he was being mischaracterized by the media as backing the FBI.

“The extreme view that government always gets everything, nobody supports that,” he told Bloomberg News. “Having the government be blind, people don’t support that.”

Magistrate Judge Sheri Pym last week ordered Apple to assist investigators by creating specialized software that would let the FBI rapidly test random passcode combinations to try to unlock the iPhone and view data stored on it.

The county-issued iPhone 5C was used by Syed Farook, who with his wife, Tashfeen Malik, killed 14 people at an office holiday party in December before they died in a gun battle with police.

But Apple maintains that creating such software would set a dangerous precedent, threatening data security for millions by making essentially a master key that could later be duplicated and used against other phones.

AP writer Deepti Hajela in New York contributed to this report.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?