OPEC will not cut oil production: Saudi minister

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – led by Saudi Arabia – decided on Thursday not to cut oil production, despite sliding oil prices.

Following a meeting of OPEC in Vienna, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Al-Naimi was asked whether the group had decided not to reduce its output from 30 million barrels per day. He responded: “That is right”.

Read More: Saudis to push OPEC to cut output: CNBC survey

Al Naimi’s remarks were backed up the Kuwaiti oil minister. The two ministers were speaking after a highly-anticipated, five-hour OPEC meeting.

“The OPEC decision was certainly disappointing but not surprising,” Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Avatrade wrote in a note shortly after the news broke. “The fact is that even if they had a cut in the production today, there are still questions in the long term over the stability of the price.”

Read More: Gulf OPEC producers agree not to cut output: Rpt

Brent crude oil fell more than USD 3 to under USD 75 a barrel – a fresh four-year low – on news. Global oil prices have plunged since peaking in June, and Brent crude has lost around a third of its price from USD 115 a barrel.

Weak demand, a strong dollar and booming US oil production are the three main reasons behind the fall, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which warned of a “new chapter” for oil markets, which could even affect the social stability of some countries.

The drop in oil has weighed heavily on energy stocks but has boosted some companies that are heavily reliant on the commodity, like airlines.

Read More: OPEC needs to ‘wake up’ to shale revolution

Neil Atkinson, the head of analysis at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, told CNBC that oil will slide further in the coming weeks but without any “massive downside.”

He added that Saudi Arabia was right to be patient in making a decision and will use the next three months to put further pressure on non-OPEC producers – like Russia – to come to an agreement on production.

One of the main pressure points on the price of oil — and on OPEC to cut its production — has been the success of the U.S. oil shale industry.

Robbie Diamond, President and CEO of Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE), a lobby group that works to improve U.S. energy security, commented on the OPEC decision in a statement.

“Whatever OPEC’s decision on oil production levels, its attempt to control this commodity—the lifeblood of the global economy — exemplifies the importance of reducing oil’s monopoly over U.S. transportation by pursuing policies and technologies that can free us from this cartel’s influence,” he said.

 5 Minutes Read

Samsung buys time with buyback, shares soar

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Samsung`s decision may provide a boost to its share price, but ultimately the company must restructure its business for future growth, says Kay.

Samsung Electronics` decision to return part of its enormous cash hoard to shareholders will buy the struggling company time with investors as it searches for new growth drivers, say analysts.

The company`s stock rallied over 7 percent on Thursday as investors cheered the USD 2 billion share buyback plan, its first since 2007 and second-largest ever.

“They are in a tough spot, and in order to offset some of those concerns this buyback gives them that initial credibility with shareholders,” said Bob O`Donnell, founder and chief analyst at Technalysis Research.

The doldrums

The South Korean tech giant is on track for its worst earnings performance since 2011 as profits at its mobile division collapses in the face of cut-throat competition in the smartphone market.

In the third quarter, Samsung`s operating profit fell 60.1 percent on year to 4.1 trillion won (USD 3.90 billion), marking the weakest outturn since the second quarter of 2011.

Over the past year, investor calls for higher returns have grown louder amid the company`s flagging share price and growing war chest, which is estimated at around USD 60 billion.

“Samsung is imitating the American companies in how they are managing cash balances. You have a lot of US tech companies with a lot of money who had thought of themselves as growth companies but are finding that they aren`t growing anymore,” said Roger Kay, president and founder at Endpoint Technologies Associates.

Apple is one such company that buys shares to return capital back to shareholders.

In April, the iPhone maker increased its share repurchase authorization to USD 90 billion from the USD 60 billion level announced last year. The company also increased its quarterly dividend by around 8 percent and split its stock 7-for-1 in June.

Action required

Samsung`s decision may provide a boost to its share price, but ultimately the company must restructure its business for future growth, says Kay.

“Share buybacks are a kind of sleight of hand move because really there`s no change in operations of the company at all. It`s just a financial maneuver, which reduces the number of shares, increases the earnings per share and makes it appear that their earnings are somewhat better,”Kay said.

Samsung needs to shed non-core businesses, and use that cash to start looking at investments that will drive growth over the longer-run, Kay added.

O`Donnell is optimistic that the company will be able to get back on track.

“They had a developer conference in San Francisco a couple of weeks back and we saw a side of Samsung that we hadn`t seen before,” he said.

The company provided a vision of how they could be a pervasive player, not just in the mobile phones, but in the smart home space, he said. As part of this push, Samsung recently acquired SmartThings, a startup that allows people use a mobile app to control connected devices at home.

“[The vision] was pretty impressive – the general consensus [was] `wow they are really getting it`.”

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Why analysts are writing off December

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Japan upset the apple cart on many prognosticators, with the Bank of Japan unleashing another massive monetary stimulus wave and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe calling a snap election, likely in December, to shore up his political support.

It`s not just Christmas decorations going up earlier these days. Fund managers and analysts are moving up their market outlooks for the new year.

“Every year it gets earlier,” said Cecilia Chan, HSBC`s chief investment officer for fixed income in Asia. “In the past, I was asked to give a market outlook in January,” and even that was moved back from as late as March as requests come in ever sooner, she said.

“It`s a bit strange. They assume that December is a holiday,” Chan said. “People are quite complacent.”

The flood of reports hasn`t abated even though many arrived before some major market surprises. For example, last week, the People`s Bank of China (PBOC) surprised the market by cutting its 12-month benchmark lending and deposit rates.

This week, US gross domestic product (GDP) also came in far stronger than initially expected in the third quarter, estimated at 3.9 percent on-year, revised from the 3.5 percent reported last month.

Japan also upset the apple cart on many prognosticators, with the Bank of Japan unleashing another massive monetary stimulus wave and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe calling a snap election, likely in December, to shore up his political support.

A sense of comfort

Others also see complacency as behind decisions to publish outlooks a bit earlier.

“Most of us are comfortable with the assumptions for next year, so they just roll off the keyboard,” said Song Seng Wun, head of research at CIMB in Singapore. “That`s really because the feeling is that next year will be similar to what we have seen the last few months,” he said. “The risk is always the unknown. The known risks we say `ok, they`re not likely to blow up.`”

Some think it`s because the blow up has already blown over.

“The October meltdown that happened — I think everyone expected that to stay on and that made a much more bearish outlook and the recovery has given everybody a bit more confidence,” said Bhaskar Laxminarayan, chief investment officer at Swiss private bank Pictet. “You had one sharp correction and up. Maybe the year will ride out without too much more drama.”

Of course, December`s market moves can bring some drama with them.

“It is not unusual to have higher volatility in December,” HSBC`s Chan said, noting that volume tends to trail off as fund managers close their books for the year, making it easier for large orders to sway the market either up or down.

Indeed, since 1950, the SandP 500 has averaged a 1.7 percent gain in December, suggesting markets won`t be sitting still.

Vacation time

End-of-year vacations can also put a damper on volume — as well as spur analysts to publish before leave begins.

To an extent, leaving on vacation is a sign that market players feel confident there aren`t any black swans flocking on the horizon.

Former Bear Stearns CEO James Cayne became a poster-child for ill-timed vacation planning. In 2007, amid a nascent global financial crisis, two of his company`s hedge funds were melting down, faced with demands for redemptions and more collateral. At the time, Cayne was competing in a bridge tournament without access to a mobile phone or e-mail, a blunder that cratered the market`s confidence in Bear Stearns, which collapsed in March of 2008 and was sold for $2 a share to JPMorgan.

Of course, in the financial industry, vacation timing isn`t always a choice. In the wake of Societe Generale`s experience with rogue trader Jerome Kerviel, who racked up losses of around 5 billion euros by early 2008, many banks now require annual leave, sometimes proscribed at year-end, to allow others to examine trading books.

Kerviel eschewed the French love of vacations and didn`t take time off, then rather famously declared: “A trader who doesn`t take vacation is a trader who doesn`t want to let anyone else look at his book.”

But it may not just be the vacations pushing analysts to publish earlier. It may just be year-end “tis the season” optimism.

“Keep your fingers crossed and pencil in next year as a better year and then you get the revisions downward,” Song said. “One year it will be all right.”

-By CNBC.Com`s Leslie Shaffer; Follow her on Twitter @LeslieShaffer1

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Here’s what could end Apple’s winning streak

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

During the last year, the tech giant’s stock price has soared more than 50 percent and on Tuesday the company’s market capitalization reached a record USD 700 billion. But now the lingering question is how long can the momentum last?

Apple’s share price has been on a tear this year, but perhaps the company has come a little too far too fast.

During the last year, the tech giant’s stock price has soared more than 50 percent and on Tuesday the company’s market capitalization reached a record USD 700 billion. But now the lingering question is how long can the momentum last?

Read More: Apple’s market cap hits USD 700B, doubles under Cook

“The stock has done really well, largely from the fact that the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus have been a big success for these guys. So the question is how far can this keep sustaining?” said Amit Daryanani, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

And while it’s difficult to find an analyst on Wall Street who is bearish on Apple, even those who have a “buy” or “outperform” rating on the stock see some perils for the company.

Read More: At new highs, Apple only starting to ripen: Analysts

Here’s a look at some risks that bullish analysts are watching.

Missing iPhone expectations

Apple’s iPhone sales account for more than half of the company’s revenue. And because the new iPhone 6 models feature significant hardware and software updates, it’s widely expected that the upgrade cycle will have legs well into 2015.

Wall Street estimates Apple will ship more than 60 million iPhones in the first quarter, according to StreetAccount. One estimate by the well-connected KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo even projects iPhone sales will reach 71.5 million for the holiday quarter.

Optimism about the potential for a longer upgrade cycle even has analysts setting the bar high for iPhones sales well beyond 2015. But perhaps they have set the bar too high.

“The big concern I see is not being able to live up to the huge expectations they have now,” said Louis Basenese, founder of Disruptive Tech Research.

“They had a great launch of the iPhone 6 and the estimates are very aggressive for unit volumes. It’s a contrarian indicator, but the analysts now are extremely bullish and their revised price targets are already underwater and you get concerned it’s come a little too far too fast and you look at what causes shares to correct and I think it would be missing expectations for unit volumes,” said Basenese, who is long-term bullish on Apple.

Another fear is that iPhone sales could hit a wall in 2015 because of its success rate, RBC’s Daryanani said.

The iPhone is on track to capture almost 70 percent of the high-end smartphone market (USD 300 or more) in the next few months, at which point the company could possibly face some market saturation concerns, said Daryanani, who has an “outperform” rating on the stock with a USD 120 price target.

“If you are looking at having 70 percent market share in the next few months, you have to ask where is the new opportunity or where are the new revenue drivers for them?” he said. “So you have a hit point where you run into some saturation in the market. In the next six months this could become an issue.”
Competition in China

While many analysts expect Apple’s expansion in China to continue to be a catalyst for iPhone sales, increased competition from smartphone makers who sell at a lower price point could pose a threat to the company’s success in the region.

Read More:  Apple locks in key partnership in China

“China is the single-biggest swing factor. But it’s also the largest untapped opportunity,” said Alex Gauna, an analyst with JMP Securities.

While China’s growing wireless infrastructure means more smartphones in the region, it doesn’t mean the iPhone will be the dominant player.

Gauna, who has an “outperform” rating on Apple’s stock with a USD 135 price target, said that some Chinese handset makers, like Xiaomi, are doing very well and that could pose a threat to the iPhone maker.

Read More: China’s Xiaomi makes strides in smartphone race

“Xiaomi has been very, very successful. So they could have the potential to create the same headache that Samsung created for Apple two years ago,” Daryanani said.
Apple Watch sales

While Wall Street is hopeful that the Apple Watch will be a new revenue generator, the company still runs the risk of weak consumer adoption.

“I think the Watch, does it really become the next product for them or is it just a cool accessory? They need it to be the next product, a new category for them. If it’s not, if it doesn’t become one like some of the other smartwatches out there, that’s a downside risk,” Basenese said.

Poor battery life, not enough use cases and high price point are just a few of the things that could also deter consumers from purchasing the device, industry experts said.

“It’s probably the use cases and the battery life. Why does one need to go out and buy an Apple watch, suddenly having a product that needs to be charged every day? It’s not the most convenient thing,” Daryanani said.

Still, though, Daryanani said that he estimates Apple will begin selling the devices in March and will sell 20 million units at an average price of USD 520 in 2015. In total, he predicts that Apple Watch sales will come to USD 10 billion in additional revenue and 40 cents in earnings per share. Given that the Apple Watch is only compatible with models of the iPhone 5 or later, though, he said estimates should remain conservative.

Besides adoption of the watch, investors should also be keeping an eye on how well Apple Pay fares, Basenese said.

“If traction isn’t significant right out of the gate, they are going to be playing catch up. Apple will have to explain why they aren’t getting more adoption,” Basenese said. “They have the credit cards on file, they have the smartphones in peoples’ hands, there are plenty of places where consumers can use it. Explaining why they don’t have traction, would become a significant problem.”

Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Still, the company seems confident of its chances for success. CEO Tim Cook said during Apple’s last earnings conference call that demand for the iPhone 6 is “off the charts.” He also said that “we are heading into the holiday season with Apple’s strongest product lineup ever.” And “we are also incredibly excited about the Apple Watch and other great products and services in the pipeline for 2015.”

Apple also predicts that it will sell more products in the three months leading up to January than it did in all of 2010.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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India: Best hedge fund bet of 2014?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

A host of positive and negative shocks — bold new leaders, potential wars, drops in currencies and commodity prices — have led to huge disparities in investment returns.

Hedge fund managers who focus on emerging markets have produced returns that are, well, all over the map.

A host of positive and negative shocks — bold new leaders, potential wars, drops in currencies and commodity prices — have led to huge disparities in investment returns.

India-focused hedge funds, for example, are up an average of 41.9 percent net of fees in 2014 through October, according to industry data tracker HFR. Thanks to optimism about economic reform and growth under new Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the South Asian giant is by far the best performing hedge fund strategy in the world this year.

Hedge funds invested in Russia, on the other hand, have lost an average of 12 percent net of fees, per HFR, perhaps unsurprising given the conflict in Ukraine, a record low for the rouble and falling oil prices. Latin America-focused funds are also down 3.5 percent on average, also hit by declining currencies, such as the Brazilian real versus the mighty U.S. dollar.

“Buying or avoiding all emerging markets as a group doesn’t work anymore,” said Marko Dimitrijević, founder of emerging markets-focused hedge fund firm Everest Capital. “Selectivity is the key.”

Dimitrijević said the Middle East and India were “the places to be” in 2014 for $3 billion Everest while Brazil, Russia and China “could be easily avoided” (performance of China-focused funds has been muted; the average manager is up 2.66 percent in 2014 through October, according to HFR).

That selectivity worked well: the Everest Capital Emerging Markets hedge fund is up 18.6 percent in 2014 through October, according to investor materials obtained by CNBC.com (the firm declined tocomment on performance).

India has been the big winner for 2014.

“India is one of the few countries with real growth that looks to accelerate, whereas the rest of the world is slowing down,” said Pratik Sharma, managing director of $150 million Atyant Capital. The Atyant Capital India Fund is up 65 percent in the first three quarters of 2014 byfocusing on bullish long bets on relatively small stocks.

Investor optimism on India centers on Modi, a pro-business politician who observers hope will stimulate growth.

“The Modi reform agenda is aggressive, progressive and big,” Mark Yusko, CIO of hedge fund allocator Morgan Creek Capital Management, said in a recent letter to clients. “Great leaders think big, dream big, act big, and Modi fits that description to a tee.”

Yusko noted that investors will be rewarded for having exposure to industries and companies that will help India grow, including engineering, construction, electric power, banking, insurance, the internet and retail, according to the letter.

“There are so many opportunities in India that it is difficult to pick only a few to discuss,” Yusko wrote.

Dimitrijević of Everest also likes India — and Mexico — in 2015 because of continued reform.

“We believe in their reform agendas, they are doing the right things from a macro standpoint, and their currencies are also more likely to hold their value against the USD,” Dimitrijević said.

The continued strength of the USD may hurt other emerging markets next year.

“A strong dollar will be a headwind for South Africa, Turkey and some of the commodity-linked markets,” Dimitrijević said.

But currency and other volatility may also create opportunity for relatively nimble hedge funds.

“Falling foreign-currency reserves, higher import costs and lower oil revenue have increased the EM risk paradigm into year end, resulting in greater macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, but also increased opportunity across emerging markets,” HFR president Kenneth Heinz said in a recent report.

Big institutional investors appear to be buying in to the relatively small and volatile hedge fund strategy.

Some 32 percent of endowments and foundations surveyed by investment consultant NEPC in the second quarter said that emerging market-focused hedge funds would generate the highest returns overthe next 5 to 7 years, higher than any other strategy.

Emerging market hedge funds saw clients allocate an additional $3.5 billion in 2014 through September, nearly half of the USD 6.45 billion in inflows from 2013, according to HFR. That brings total hedge fund capital invested in emerging market hedge funds to $185 billion.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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Smartphone shipments to hit $300 billion in 2014

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Within just two weeks of its launch, the iPhone 6 series generated more than three times Xiaomi’s total smartphone revenues over the entire third quarter, said Shah.

Despite declining average selling prices (ASP) and signs of saturation in developed markets,smartphone shipments are set to hit a record high in 2014.

The smartphone industry will reach USD 300 billion in wholesale shipment revenues this year, up from USD 280 billion in 2013, Counterpoint Research forecasts. Wholesale shipment revenue measures shipments by a manufacturer, like Apple of Samsung, to the first point in its distribution channel such as a mobile network operator.

Apple boost

“Apple is to thank for the new record high,” Neil Shah,research director at Counterpoint Research told CNBC.

Apple alone will contribute roughly a third of smartphone industry revenues this year thanks to the blowout success of its latest models, the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus, which were launched in September and an expansion of its sales channels in the US, Europe and Japan.

Within just two weeks of its launch, the iPhone 6 series generated more than three times Xiaomi’s total smartphone revenues over the entire third quarter, said Shah.

The Cupertino-based company will cross the USD 100 billion mark in iPhone hardware revenues this year, the first time in history for any mobile phone manufacturer.

While the ASP of smartphones is falling, Apple’s strong branding has enabled the company retain its pricing power, helping to offset declines in the broader industry.

Apple’s ASP stood at around USD 605 in the third quarter, when it launched its new devices, up from USD 560 in the previous three months, according to Counterpoint. This was partly driven by the iPhone 6 Plus, the company’s first phablet, which is priced well above its smaller-screened cousins.

Globally, the ASP smartphones currently stands at USD 238, down from USD 271 in 2013, according to Counterpoint, driven by commoditization of the market.

“As the industry matures, the average selling price goes down because component prices are going down as well,” Neilsaid.

Further gains ahead

Despite headwinds facing the sector, Neil expects smartphone wholesale shipment revenues to rise further in 2015 to around USD 320 billion.

However, it may not be all because of Apple.

Rising demand in emerging markets like India, Brazil and Indonesia will also help drive shipments, said Neil.

While the ASP of smartphones in these countries is low, they will make up for it in volume, he noted.

Smartphones shipments are forecast to reach 1.5 billion units next year, up from an estimated 1.3 billion this year, according to Counterpoint.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Do German bonds face Japanification?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The 10-year bund is yielding around 0.75 percent, around all-time lows, compared with the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) at around 0.45 percent after a decades-long downtrend.

The euro zone`s long disinflation has spurred fears it will tumble all the way to Japan-style deflation, with some concerned yields on the continent`s safe-haven bond, the German bund, could remain depressed for the long haul.

“While we are still not convinced that the euro zone is the new Japan, despite the many similarities in their economic predicaments, we are increasingly of the view that the 10-year Bund yield will remain exceptionally low for at least the next couple of years,” John Higgins, chief markets economist at Capital Economics, said in a note Wednesday.

The 10-year bund is yielding around 0.75 percent, around all-time lows, compared with the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) at around 0.45 percent after a decades-long downtrend.

Japan`s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.5 percent in 1995, a move that pushed the 10-year JGB yield below 1 percent after three years, Higgins noted.

“Investors did not know in 1998 that Japan`s key policy rate would remain near zero for the next 16 years (and counting). But the prospect of it remaining there for the foreseeable future was enough to keep the 10-year yield quite firmly anchored,” he said. “We see no reason why a similar outcome couldn`t happen in Germany,” as the bund yield fell below 1 percent after the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main rate to 0.5 percent in mid-2013.

Capital Economics cut its end-2014 and end-2015 forecasts for the bund yield by 25 basis points each to 0.75 percent and 1.0 percent respectively. It also cut its end-2016 bund yield forecast to 1.00 percent from 1.50 percent.

Japanification

It`s not just government bond yields that are spurring concerns the euro zone faces “Japanification.”

In the third quarter, euro zone gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2 percent on the previous quarter, with regional economic powerhouse Germany narrowly avoiding a recession. In October, the region`s inflation was 0.4 percent on-year, doing little to assuage deflation fears.

“We think growth will be too weak to trigger tighter monetary policy. This has been the case in Japan,” Higgins said, noting GDP there has grown only by an average 0.7 percent annually since the Bank of Japan cut its rate to 0.5 percent in 1995.

In the third quarter, Japan slid into recession, with its GDP contracting 1.6 percent on-year after the second quarter`s 7.1 percent drop.

Others are also concerned that Europe`s government bonds could go the way of Japan.

“European bond markets have followed Japan`s deflation script,” Barclays said in a note Monday. “If anything, euro bonds have priced these deflation concerns more quickly,” it added, noting the euro zone has yet to actually experience deflation.

To be sure, many point toward an expected increase in US interest rates sometime in 2015 as helping to reverse the drop in bund yields.

“Rises in US interest rates could encourage European and international investors to re-balance their portfolios in favor of US debt at the expense of European bonds,” Moody`s  said in its global sovereign bond outlook Tuesday.

Capital Economics` Higgins also expects rising US interest rates would help to boost the 10-year bund yield as the two have tracked each other in the past. But he noted that the spread between the two yields is already at its largest since the start of the European monetary union.

“We see no reason why it should not grow further as the contrast between the monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB becomes increasingly stark,” Higgins said.

-By CNBC.Com`s Leslie Shaffer; Follow her on Twitter @LeslieShaffer1

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Warning: India’s recovery may have hit a wall

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Growth in Asia’s third largest economy decelerated to between 5-5.3 percent in the July-September quarter, down from 5.7 percent in the previous three months, according to analysts’ forecasts.

India’s economic recovery hit a wall in third quarter as industrial activity lost momentum and patchy monsoon rains hurt farm output, gross domestic product (GDP) data due Friday is expected to show.

Growth in Asia’s third largest economy decelerated to between 5-5.3 percent in the July-September quarter, down from 5.7 percent in the previous three months, according to analysts’ forecasts.

“Signs are the economy hit a soft patch,” Radhika Rao, economist at DBS wrote in a note.

Industrial output growth is expected to have slowed sharply to 1.1 percent on year in the third quarter, from 4 percent in the previous three months, according to Goldman Sachs. Meanwhile, agricultural output growth is forecast to have weakened to 1 percent, from 3.8 percent in the previous quarter.

Service sector growth, however, is expected to have increased to 7.0 percent on year, from 6.6 percent in the previous quarter, according to the bank, helped by relatively strong growth in transport, communication and construction sectors.

High hopes

Nevertheless, economists expect the slowdown will be temporary.

“We expect that India’s growth will ease in Q3…But this does not distract from our call for growth to recover to above 6 percent in 2015 as the lift from reforms and investment revival percolate through the economy,” said Vishnu Varathan an economist at Mizuho Bank.

Read More: Darling of EMs about to get more love

Hopes are running high for a revival of India’s lacklustre economy since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in May. This optimism is reflected in the performance of the benchmark Sensex, which has rallied over 30 percent so far this year, making India thebest performing equity market in Asia-Pacific. Rao agrees that a growth upturn is around the corner.

Read More: India in 2020: the factory of the world?

“While China has slowed down, India’s high-frequency data and buoyant sentiments suggest that the economy is gradually on the mend albeit not off to the races as yet. We expect a cyclical recovery in FY15 to be followed by a structural upturn into FY16,” she said.

Unlocking growth

While India’s economic fundamentals are improving, helped by lower commodity prices, reforms remain key to putting the economy on a sustainable growth path, say economists.

The Indian parliament’s month-long winter session that kicked off on Monday is crucial for Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government to prove they can deliver on reforms.

Read More: In Modi’s India, green shoots of reform from Rajasthan

The session – taking place between November 24 and December 23 – has 22 working days and a heavy legislative agenda.

Around 37 bills are up for discussion including raising the ceiling for foreign capital in the insurance sector, making changes to the land acquisition act and the Goods and Service Taxes (GST) bill.

“Concrete progress on the reform agenda will be important to sustain the financial markets’ positivity and maintain the reform momentum,” said Rao. 

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Gold rebound coming in 2015: George Gero of RBC Cap Mkts

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

In 2014, gold hasn’t been helped by the dollar’s rally. The greenback has shown serious strength against other currencies, which has reduced gold’s attractiveness

It hasn’t been a great couple of years to be a gold bug. Since peaking at USD 1,923.70 per troy ounce in September 2011, gold has lost nearly 40 percent of its value. And while gold hasn’t dropped dramatically this year, it has failed to gain back.

But according to George Gero of RBC Capital Markets, the bullion trade is set to turn around in 2015.

“The decline from the USD 1,900s down to the USD 1,150s is a major decline, and it was reflected by all the funds fleeing gold and running into better-performing assets, whether it’s equities or debt, and that’s been continuing,” Gero said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.”

Read More: Gold around USD 1,200 on lower dollar; Swiss vote eyed

In 2014, gold hasn’t been helped by the dollar’s rally. The greenback has shown serious strength against other currencies, which has reduced gold’s attractiveness. After all, since gold is priced in dollars, an increase in the value of a dollar means a decrease in the value of an ounce of gold. Additionally, since people buy gold to hedge against potential inflation, ebbing inflation fears dull gold’s appeal.

Gero acknowledges that “crude selling off, and OPEC possibly doing nothing about it, helping crude stay weak, is anti-inflationary—so the people that have been looking for inflation haven’t really found it.”

But he adds that “now you’re going to see some changes based on all the stimulus in Europe, in China and in Japan.”

Read More: Why is Putin buying gold?

So how high could gold go?

“I’m looking at USD 1,300 to USD 1,400 as a closing price one year from now,” he said.

Back in December 2013, Gero predicted that gold was set to rise above USD 1,300 in the first quarter of 2014—a call that played out nicely as gold approached USD 1,400 toward the end of March.

Watch “Futures Now” Tuesdays and Thursdays at 1 p.m. ET exclusively on FuturesNow.CNBC.com!

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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BOJ’s bazooka: It’s all about the message

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The BOJ`s commitment to pull the country out of two decades of deflation remains “unshakable”, according to the minutes from its policy meeting on October 31, when the central bank expanded its asset purchase program by 30 trillion yen to 80 trillion yen.

Latest minutes from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released Tuesday reveal that the central bank`s surprise move in October to expand its already-massive stimulus program was about sending the message that it will do whatever it takes to “conquer deflation.”

“The BOJ intended to send a strong message, beyond the financial markets, to jolt the wider economy,” said Shun Maruyama, Chief Japan Equity Strategist at BNP Paribas. “Consumer and business leaders remain unmoved by monetary policy.”

Consumer inflation looks set to stall at around 1 percent, half of the BOJ`s stated target, he added, noting capital investments are picking up but not by enough to boost economic growth.

The BOJ`s commitment to pull the country out of two decades of deflation remains “unshakable”, according to the minutes from its policy meeting on October 31, when the central bank expanded its asset purchase program by 30 trillion yen to 80 trillion yen.

“If no policy action was taken at this meeting, this could be understood as a breach of the commitment (to achieve its inflation target of 2 percent), thereby possibly impairing the Bank`s credibility significantly,” said one board member.

The members that supported further monetary easing argued that the BOJ needed to “convey the bank`s unwavering resolve to conquer deflation.” In a tight ballot, five members backed the latest measures, and four voted against.

Inflation target

The BOJ kept its goal to boost the inflation rate to 2 percent by next year, but falling oil prices could put the target in question.

When stripped of the effect of April`s consumption tax hike, Japan`s core inflation rate rose 1 percent in September from the year-ago period, its lowest pace in nearly a year.

“The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) was likely to be at around 1 percent for some time, mainly due to the effects of the decline in crude oil prices,” board members said.

“On the condition that crude oil prices stayed at around the current level, the downward pressure on inflation rates on a year-on-year basis would remain until around the first half of fiscal 2015,” they added.

According to Nobuhiko Kuramochi, strategist at Mizuho Securities, the BOJ “needed to do something” as minutes hint that board members are concerned inflation will fall below 1 percent by next April.

For Noguchi, Daiwa`s BOJ watcher, the most interesting point is that “the minutes revealed for the first time the reasons why some BOJ board members oppose additional monetary easing,” she said.

These board members, whom she says “all have business and financial markets backgrounds,” specifically warned of the consequences of increasing Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchases by 80 trillion yen.

“This would mean the bank was purchasing most of the JGBs issued on a flow basis,” one of the board members states in the minutes. “Not only would this considerably squeeze liquidity in the JGB market, but it also would further heighten the risk that such a move would be perceived as effectively financing fiscal deficits.”

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

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Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?