5 Minutes Read

Bernanke to Congress: Don’t let sequester take place

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday repeated testimony to Congress, defending the central bank’s monetary easing and warning Congress against letting looming spending cuts take place.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday repeated testimony to Congress, defending the central bank’s monetary easing and warning Congress against letting looming spending cuts take place.


“Given the still-moderate underlying pace of economic growth, this additional near-term burden on the recovery is significant,” Bernanke told the House Financial Services Committee.


In testimony Tuesday, Bernanke strongly defended the Fed’s easy monetary policy and said there was little risk of a spike in inflation in the near term.


In criticising the central bank’s easy monetary policy, Sen. Bob Corker, a Republican from Tennessee, called Bernanke the biggest monetary dove since World War II.


Bernanke was quick to push back. “You called me a dove, well maybe in some respects I am, but on the other hand my inflation record is the best of any Federal Reserve chairman in the postwar period – or at least one of the best,” he said, citing the 2 percent average inflation rate.


He also urged lawmakers to avoid sharp spending cuts set to go into effect on Friday, which he warned could combine with earlier tax increases to create a “significant headwind” for the economic recovery. (Read More: Americans Call Sequester a ‘Bad Idea’: NBC/WSJ Poll)

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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 5 Minutes Read

Fed’s Bullard: Fed policy to stay ‘easy’ for ‘long time’

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The Federal Reserve’s “very aggressive” easy money policy is going to stay that way for a “long time,” St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC on Friday.

The Federal Reserve’s “very aggressive” easy money policy is going to stay that way for a “long time,” St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC on Friday.


“This is a monetary policy that packs a punch,” said Bullard, who’s a voting member on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).


Uncertainty about the future of the central bank’s bond-buying program has weighed on the stock market in recent days.


But the St. Louis Fed president said in Friday’s “Squawk Box” interview, “I think policy is much easier than it was last year because the outright purchases are more potent tool than the ‘Twist’ program was … I don’t think markets have fully absorbed that switch.”


Bullard added, “Fed policy is very easy and it’s going stay easy for a long time.”


On Wednesday, the FOMC released minutes of its January meeting, which said “many participants” expressed concerns about “potential costs and risks arising from further asset purchases.”


(CNBC Explains: Fed’s Bond Buying Program, Also Known as ‘Quantitative Easing’)


“It’s true that the committee is thinking about how are we going to handle this later this year,” Bullard admitted. “But that’s a natural thing for the committee to be talking about.”


(Read More: Fed Officials Divided on Future of QE)


As for the economy, “The amount of global economic uncertainty is way down from where it was last year,” he said, adding that first- quarter economic growth looks to be tracking at about 2.5 percent, following the negative reading in the fourth quarter.


For the year, Bullard predicted gross domestic product growth at 3 percent, though he acknowledged that he’s on the optimistic side.


(Read More: Fed’s Williams: Risk of Losses Shouldn’t Deter Fed)


The Fed has said it wants to see the unemployment rate fall to 6.5 percent or inflation rise to 2.5 percent before considering any changes in its policies.


Bullard warned investors not to think in terms of dates for the ending or winding down of quantitative easing. “You should be thinking in terms of how the economy is going to perform. … Substantial improvement in labor market conditions doesn’t happen overnight,” he said.


“The committee should acknowledge gradual improvement when we see it, when we think we see it,” Bullard added, “and gradually taper back the program.”


Bullard explained that he’s advocated this type of approach for a long time “[so] on the day [QE] ends it’s not such a big day.”


He added: “It’s just a continuous thing where you go from a small amount of purchases to zero.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Action in euro could dictate Wall Street Friday

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Traders will be watching the track of the euro Friday, as they decide how defensive they should be going into the weekend.

Traders will be watching the track of the euro Friday, as they decide how defensive they should be going into the weekend.


Thursday was a second day of “risk-off” selling, with stocks and commodities lower, and the euro headed toward the 1.31 level. The dollar index edged to its highest level since September. The Dow fell 46 points and finished at 13,880 but was well off its lows of the day. The S&P was off 9 at 1502, after falling to 1497, just above an area of support. The Nasdaq bore the brunt of the selling, falling 32 points or 1 percent to 3131.


“I think we needed a correction. I think the Fed minutes was as good an excuse as anything,” said Steve Massocca of Wedbush Securities. “I think a lot of the selling that took place today came out of retail and individuals, where a lot of the buying had been recently.”


Selling in stocks had accelerated Wednesday afternoon, after the minutes of the Fed’s last meeting showed that many members of the Fed were expressing concern about the potential costs and risks from further quantitative easing. While analysts do not expect the Fed to end its asset purchases any time soon, the fact Fed officials discussed concerns about QE for a second month sent a shudder through markets.


The Nasdaq and Russell 2000, which had been hitting highs, were both down nearly two percent for the week as of Thursday afternoon. “This has been an unsettling event. I don’t think it’s going to be off to the races tomorrow,” Massocca said. “I think it’s going to take a little bit for people to rebuild confidence in the tape. I think it caught people by surprise because there wasn’t any real news that led up to it.”


Weak European PMI data followed by a surprising decline in the Philadelphia Fed index of minus 12.5 combined to rattle markets Thursday.


“There’s negative Europe sentiment, but also the Philly Fed hurt the market,” said Boris Schlossberg, managing director, foreign exchange strategy with BK Asset Management. “Bottom line is the whole assumption is global growth is going to pick up, and we’re going to have this big recovery…There’s more problems than solutions, and growth seems to be slowing rather than accelerating. That’s the reason we’re starting to see a little bit of a correction” across risk markets.


Schlossberg said he is watching German business sentiment data Friday. “We’ll see how Europe trades…if we have more selling coming in then I think we’ll start off the day negatively. We may see more liquidation into the weekend,” he said, adding some investors may be nervous ahead of the Italian election this weekend. Schlossberg said if former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi looks set to win that will send “tremors” through the markets.


Oil tumbled 2.5 percent Thursday to its lowest level of the year as the dollar gained, and after weekly inventory data showed a greater-than-expected increase of 4.1 million barrels last week. Oil stockpiles are at the highest level since the Energy Department began collecting the data in 1982. West Texas Intermediate fell $2.38 to $92.84 a barrel.


John Kilduff of Again Capital said the $95 level is the place to watch for a move back in crude. “But if the dollar keeps rocking here, it’s going to be putting downward pressure on dollar-based commodities,” he said.


Bonds prices were higher Thursday on worries about the economy, and in reaction to the decline in stocks. The 10-year yield fell to 1.93 percent. “The market is rallying on the back of stocks, but we’re actually seeing better selling,” said Charlie Parkhurst, managing director in government bond trading at Barclays.


There is no data Friday, but there are a few earnings including Abercrombie and Fitch, Washington Post, Mohawk and Agrium.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Who’s afraid of QE ending? Not bond market

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Market reaction to the Federal Reserve possibly unwinding its history-making intervention policies has been more pronounced for stocks than bonds, and with good reason.

Market reaction to the Federal Reserve possibly unwinding its history-making intervention policies has been more pronounced for stocks than bonds, and with good reason.


That’s because the central bank is far more likely to dial down the speed on its money printing presses before it starts normalizing interest rates.


Also read: The Federal Reserve Explained


Fed Officials Divided Over the Future of Easing


Quantitative Easing Explained


Stocks End Off Lows, but Materials Lag; Vix Jumps


Investors, then, should expect to see a pullback in stocks well ahead of an increase in interest rates as the Fed slows and eventually ends its bond-buying program but keeps its zero interest rate policy in place until the economy solidifies.


“If you look at the last couple of recessions, there’s a long gap between the last ease and first tightening,” said Michael Cloherty, head of US rates strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “We think purchases will stop at the end of 2013 but the first move in the funds rate isn’t until (the third quarter of) 2015. So we think there’s going to be a long gap in between.”


Traders recoiled Wednesday after the Fed released minutes from its January meeting indicating that members discussed whether it might be wise to “taper” the ongoing USD 85 billion in monthly purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. That’s part of the third round of what is known as quantitative easing, or QE3.


Among the main points were that the economy soon may stabilize enough to justify the draw-down of the Fed’s USD 3 trillion balance sheet, along with concern over the risks that come with further expansion.


“What we’re expecting is for QE3 to continue through the third quarter then slow in the fourth quarter and stop. That’s an extra trillion dollars in balance sheet growth,” Cloherty said. “That’s a massive move by any historical standard, and that’s something that will very, very difficult to unwind someday.”


Despite the potential long-term hazards of QE, the stock market sold off at the slightest notion that the Fed might pull the plug.


“Equity markets seem to think of asset purchases as magic pixie dust,” Cloherty said. “They just make everything fly. No one has a transmission mechanism for how that works, they just know it does.”


The Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 1 percent following Wednesday’s Fed release and was on pace to add to that decline Thursday.


The bond market, though, was humming along even though a Fed exit from bond buying would seem likely to decrease demand and thus put upward pressure on yields.


Instead, yields fell and a popular exchange-traded fund, the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond fund, gained nearly one percent.


But fixed income will continue to take its cues more from the Fed’s zero target for its fund rate.


While the central bank has tied no specific conditions to when it will pull the plug on bond buying, it has been specific that rate normalization is a separate issue and will not begin at least until the unemployment rate falls from its current 7.9 percent to 6.5 percent and inflation, which is about 1.7 percent now, hits 2.5 percent.


“The mixed messages apparently coming from the Fed illustrate the risks of trying to guide market expectations by pre-committing to particular policies,” Julian Jessop, chief global economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. “The upshot is that an early end to QE3 might not result in the surge in bond yields that some would take for granted.”


From a broader perspective, market reaction in both equities and fixed income likely will be tied not merely to when easing and rate manipulation ends but why.


“If QE were scaled back due to concerns about costs rather than achieving its stated labor market goals, as some members hinted at, we would expect risk assets to sell off and Treasury yields to decline,” Michael Hanson and Ethan Harris, economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a report.


From there, financial markets will have to see how the Fed unwinds its massive balance sheet. “This is one of those things that’s going to greatly complicate the whole exit of the Fed,” Cloherty said. “The further they go the more problematic all this becomes.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Gold’s ‘Death Cross’ isn’t all investors are worried about

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Gold is flashing the “death cross” but the bearish chart pattern is not the only thing scaring investors.

Gold is flashing the “death cross” but the bearish chart pattern is not the only thing scaring investors.


The magnetic appeal of a rising stock market has pulled some investment funds away from the yellow metal. Since the beginning of the year, stocks are up nearly 7 percent and gold is down nearly 6 percent.


“What’s really behind this is we’ve had three major risks that supported the gold market last year, which was the fiscal cliff; the possibility of Greece leaving the euro and the euro zone crisis and the third was a hard landing in China, and all of those risks have mitigated this year,” said Jim Steel, chief commodities analyst at HSBC. “And I think that has undercut the bullion market. “


Steel said the selling snowballed with the Chinese new year holiday last week. “The whole precious metals complex is under pressure. I think the strength of the equities markets have taken away some of the safe haven and particularly the pull back in the euro has added to this, and we have in the past few days seen pretty substantial hedge fund selling and something of a drop in the exchange traded fund holdings,” he said.


But Steel does not believe the 12-year bull market in gold is ending. This pullback is temporary and a reversal in the stock market could easily push gold prices higher. “I think it’s dated back to the difficulty the market had getting over USD 1700,” the analyst said.


When the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average, traders believe it signals a “death cross,” a bearish signal. It was very close on Wednesday, and traders say some technical moves become self-fulfilling as investors sell into the momentum.


(Read More: As Gold Drops, Cramer Reevaluates)


But there are plenty of other factors that could bring further declines. “I think you’ve got a couple of things going on which are kind of surprising. Actually the death cross isn’t going to affect gold that much,” said RBC analyst George Gero. “What is affecting gold is the expiration Monday of a large put position that a lot of funds initiated at a USD 1600 strike price, which is now in the money quite a bit.”


Gold was down USD 22 at USD 1581 per ounce in late morning trading, and was joining other commodities in a sell off. The 200-day moving average on the April contract is at $1664, and the 50-day is at USD 1668.


Jim Wyckoff, market analyst with JimWyckoff.com, said the put position could be a factor. “The fact that we pushed prices below USD 1600 and they can exercise those puts, that’s one more bearish clue,” he said. He described the market as being short-term oversold.


“Gold prices are still in a 12-year old uptrend on the longer-term chart,” Wyckoff said. “Right now this pullback is a downside technical correction in a longer-term uptrend. The key on a longer term basis is the USD 1500 level. If we push multiple closes below USD 1500, that is going to produce longer term technical damage.”


Selling in the big exchange traded funds has also been a factor, but Gero notes that open interest has actually been increasing in the past two weeks, to about 450,000, from 430,000.


“Companies afraid to miss selling opportunities have increased hedging and trade selling,” Gero said. “There’s been some selling against the ETF position. Some major managers like Louis Bacon and George Soros have gotten out.” Soros Fund Management and Bacon’s Moore Capital Management both reported they cut holdings of gold ETFs as of the end of the year. Investor John Paulson’s Paulson and Co. reported it retained its 21.8 million shares in SPDR Gold Trust.


The selling could be close to a bottom. Steel said emerging market buying is already coming in, and as the metal declines, scrap sales will decline, taking pressure off the gold price.


“The more it goes down, the more likely we are to see price sensitive buyers, particularly in the Far East, coming in,” he said. 

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Worst trade of the year? Bet against bond market

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

While going long the stock market has been a great trade so far in 2013, betting that the bond market would suffer as a result could be the worst.

While going long the stock market has been a great trade so far in 2013, betting that the bond market would suffer as a result could be the worst.


True, equities in a broad sense have outperformed their fixed income counterparts. But the so-called Great Rotation trade that many market professionals had been looking for has failed to show any signs of materializing.


“Redistribution is not the same as rotation,” said Kevin Ferry, president of Cronus Futures Management in Chicago and a trader not in the Great Rotation camp.


Ferry’s point is not an arcane one – indeed, it goes to the heart of whether the 2013 market will be driven by an accelerated risk-on trade that finally will fulfill all those prophecies that the bond bull market is over, or if the safety play remains viable for investors’ portfolios even if the stock market grows.


(Read More: Money Pouring Into Stocks ‘Is Usually a Negative Sign’)


The rotation play holds that investors will reverse four years of money flowing out of equities and into bonds. So far, flows show that only half that trend has occurred.


In the first month and a half mutual funds that invest in stocks have taken in a robust USD 43.8 billion, a post-financial crisis high. If the rotation theme held, it would be likely to see a similar amount come out of fixed income mutual funds.


Instead, bond funds have taken in USD 37.6 billion – less than equities to be sure, but still a strong allocation and not indicative of a pronounced move out of bonds and into stocks.


So where has the equity side gotten all this money?


Money market funds – the dead pool that became so popular after the crisis – have lost USD 37 billion so far, helping explain the boon to stocks, and revealing an investor mentality in which the stock market is seen as a much better store of wealth than the zero-yielding alternative.


This has been pretty much the whole idea as the Federal Reserve has rolled through three rounds of bond buying known as quantitative easing designed to force yields down so much that investors will have no other choice but to seek out risk.


“It works until it doesn’t,” Ferry said. “That’s what QE does – it turns the capital markets into an ATM machine. As long as there’s not an exogenous event, you’re OK.”


(Read More: Central Banks Gone Wild: What Can Investors Do?)


If there has been a rotation, in fact, it probably is more from safer fixed-income instruments such as the benchmark 10-year Treasury note into higher-yielding bonds such as corporate junk.


Broadly, bonds as measured by the Barclays Composite Index have returned about 3 percent in 2013, but Treasurys have lost 3.5 percent. Corporate high-yield has returned 1.3 percent, while dividend growth is up nearly 6 percent.


Conversely, the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock market index has gained 6.5 percent.


(Read More: Spending Cuts Loom as ‘No. 1 Threat’ to Market)


Looking purely at fund flows, exchange-traded products have seen about USD 1.2 billion come into bond funds, but double that for higher-yielding riskier offerings.


Ferry said the bond market actually has performed efficiently this year, with yields rising but in tandem, indicating that the yield curve remains constructive.


Still, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, one of the loudest proponents of the Great Rotation, insists that the trade is only in its early days even if appearances suggest otherwise


“The Great Rotation theme is risk supportive, but even assuming volatility stays low and the macro remains in a trading range, the best outcome is for equities and other risk assets is to grind higher in coming months,” Michael Hartnett, BofA’s chief investment strategist, said in a note.


The firm is bullish on high yield, neutral on government bonds in emerging markets, and bearish on government, investment grade and similar traditional safe-haven bets.


Bond dealers have USD 47.6 billion in short positions on Treasurys, the highest level since before the crisis, according to RBC.


Meanwhile, a BofA sentiment indicator is now more bullish than 99 percent of its readings since 2002, Hartnett said, and the firm itself, despite espousing the Great Rotation theme, believes that bonds are not heading for a crash.


The bearish levels on Treasurys and bullishness on stocks are both approaching contrarian levels, meaning that the unraveling of both trades could be near.


So investors looking to position for the times ahead by betting heavily on stocks in anticipation of money rolling out of bonds may want to hold off.


“The disconnect between weak economic fundamentals, ebullient investor sentiment and elevated stock prices form an unhealthy and potentially toxic cocktail,” said Doug Kass, head of Seabreeze Partners. ” I am as bearish on stocks as I have been in some time.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Why G-20 isn’t a sign that yen will fall further

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The yen continued its slide against the dollar on Monday after global finance ministers at the weekend avoided directly criticizing Japan for pursuing policies that have led to significant weakness in its currency. However, analysts warned against expecting a further drop in the yen.

The yen continued its slide against the dollar on Monday after global finance ministers at the weekend avoided directly criticizing Japan for pursuing policies that have led to significant weakness in its currency. However, analysts warned against expecting a further drop in the yen.


The Group of 20 nations (G-20) meeting in Moscow gave a green light to markets to keep selling the yen, which has lost about 16 percent of its value against the dollar in the past three months, but currency strategists told CNBC that more downside for the yen was unlikely.


Also read: Japan Finance Minister Relieved G-20 Heat Is Off


Did G-20 Give Markets Green Light to Sell Yen?


Did the G-20 Signal Further Easing?


Currency Wars Come to Moscow as G-20 Meets


Now that Japan’s new government has made its point about the need to reflate Japan’s economy and end two decades of deflation, Tokyo is likely to tone down the talk of aggressive monetary easing that has weakened the yen, said Frank Lavin, CEO of Export Now, a company that helps companies break into Chinese markets.


“Privately, they (Japanese officials) probably got a lot of push back in Moscow,” Lavin told CNBC Asia’s “Squawk Box” on Monday. “I think what we’ll see now is that Japan does ease off on the rhetoric, (Prime Minister Shinzo) Abe has made his point domestically. We’ve seen him ride this pony as far as it will go.”


Abe said on Monday that while the Bank of Japan has promised an ultra-easy monetary policy until inflation reaches 2 percent, the central bank is also mandated to prevent prices from rising above that target.


Abe came to power following elections in December and has made a concerted push to revive Japan’s frail economy, urging the Bank of Japan to adopt a 2 percent inflation target, something the central bank did last month, and pursue aggressive monetary easing to end deflation.


It’s the expectations of aggressive central bank action that have knocked the yen lower, giving Japan’s exporters an edge in overseas markets and sparking cries of foul play from Japan’s competitors.


The yen weakened on Monday to about 94.20 per dollar, within sight of last week’s low around 94.40, which was the weakest level since May 2010.


“Broadly speaking we’ve had an appropriate adjustment in the yen to a sea-change in Japanese policy,” said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. “So herein markets will be more focused on how the policies in Japan will be implemented and when.”


Ray Attrill, co-head of forex strategy at National Australia Bank, said that with markets now pricing in aggressive policy action from Japan, further moves lower in the yen would be slow rather than rapid.


He expected the yen to weaken to 100 per dollar in 2014 rather than this year as some analysts have forecast.


Correction Due?


Stephen Nash, director of strategy at FIIG Securities in Sydney, expected a pull-back in the yen and Japanese stocks, which rose more than 2 percent on Monday.


“It is good to see some strong policy action and discussion in Japan, which has been struggling with deflation for some time. But I think investors really need to be on their toes now, we’ve had significant rallies in the Nikkei, a significant move in the yen and the question is where is the growth?,” he told CNBC.


“We’re not seeing much (growth now), we will see it at some point, but to some extent markets have jumped the gun and we should see some correction,” he added, declining to give forecasts for the yen and Japanese shares.


The benchmark Nikkei stock index has climbed 27 percent in the last three months. In comparison, the S&P 500, which has enjoyed a rally of its own, has gained about 12 percent, while European stocks are up about 8 percent.


The Nikkei on Monday was close to touching its 33-month peak at around 11,498 struck earlier this month.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Mario Draghi’s bearish comments push euro lower

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The euro declined against the dollar on Monday after the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said economic indicators signaled further weakness in the euro zone.

The euro declined against the dollar on Monday after the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said economic indicators signaled further weakness in the euro zone.


“Available indicators signal further weakness at the beginning of 2013, with domestic demand remaining dampened. This is due to weak consumer and investor sentiment and to the necessary balance sheet adjustments in both the public and private sectors. Foreign demand also remains subdued,” Draghi said in a statement before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussles.


(Read More: Lagarde: Currency War? More Like Currency Worries)


The euro declined to 1.3340 against the dollar from 1.3360, following his comments.


Draghi also sounded a dovish note on inflation, saying: “annual inflation in the euro area has continued to moderate, falling from 2.5 percent in October to 2.2 percent in November and December and 2.0 percent in January. Inflation is expected to decline to below 2 percent in the near term.”


But Draghi ruled out using the currency as a tool to boost the euro zone economy after a number of euro zone policymakers said last week the euro was too strong.


“As regards the exchange rate, let me be clear that the exchange rate is not a policy target, but it is important for growth and price stability,” Draghi said.


Over the weekend, G-20 finance chiefs and central bank heads re-affirmed their commitment not to engage in a currency war.


(Read More: What Currency War? Move Along, G-20 Leaders Say)


“We’ve seen the euro come off slightly, it’s still within its daily range, still above 1.3290,” Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com said. “What it does reinforce though is that Draghi is very worried about the strength of the euro still. However, he’s still very limited in the tools that he can use, you know, it’s a market-based exchange rate, what can he do?”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Did the G-20 just signal further global easing?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Global finance ministers and central bank chiefs attending the Group of 20 nations (G-20) meeting in Moscow dismissed talk of currency war over the weekend and said they would “refrain from competitive devaluation.”

Global finance ministers and central bank chiefs attending the Group of 20 nations (G-20) meeting in Moscow dismissed talk of currency war over the weekend and said they would “refrain from competitive devaluation.”


But by letting Japan off the hook and urging action to address the weak global economy, G-20 policymakers also signaled that further monetary and fiscal easing could lie ahead.


“There’s been lots of talk of currency wars, and we have not seen any such thing as a currency war,” Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, told journalists on Saturday.


(Read More: G-20 Defuses ‘Currency War,’ Japan Off the Hook)


Australia’s Treasurer Wayne Swan told CNBC the issue was “completely overblown.” And Japan’s finance minister sounded almost relieved, after his country was spared any criticism, despite pursuing a monetary policy that has led the yen to weaken 21 percent against the dollar since mid-November.


Instead what came out of the G-20 meeting was a statement that sounded strongly pro-growth.


“We recognize that important risks remain and global growth is still too weak, with unemployment remaining unacceptably high in many countries,” the final communique said. “Advanced economies will develop credible medium-term fiscal strategies … by the St. Petersburg summit.”


Meanwhile, the IMF seemed to bless further monetary easing in the euro zone, with Christine Lagarde telling reporters that there was further room to cut “interest rates in the euro zone, [which are] clearly higher than in many other regions including the US, UK, and Japan.”


Those words are likely to provide a boost to France, which has been urging further stimulus for the euro zone in the face of German calls for austerity.


France’s finance minister, Pierre Moscovici, who last week said the euro may be too strong, told CNBC in Moscow: “We can’t neglect growth, the figures in the last trimester of 2012 are bad, they’re bad for Britain, bad for Germany, bad for Spain, they’re bad for France. This is why we need to reflect altogether on how we can move on.”


(Read More: What Currency War? Move Along, G-20 Leaders Say)


Further stimulus by major economies, especially the euro zone, will in turn lead weaker currencies.


You might be asking yourself: Isn’t that the same thing as a “currency war”?


But policymakers will likely take comfort from last week’s statement from the G-7 which drew a distinction between monetary easing to stimulate domestic demand and deliberate targeting of a currency level.


And according to Goldman Sachs analysts, there’s another key difference between the two.


“Whereas competitive devaluation remains a zero-sum game, “competitive monetary easing” is net positive for global growth and effectively helps narrow the world’s output gap. At a time of low inflation and high unemployment in many countries, competitive monetary easing is therefore a welcome policy,” Goldman analysts wrote in a note to clients on Friday.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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Adidas hopes to boost sales with high-tech sneaker

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

As Under Armour prepares to launch a new ad campaign, as well as a new retail concept in Baltimore, Adidas is launching a technology it claims will transform running shoes, which is approximately a USD 15 billion business.

There is no time to rest in the business of clothing and equipping the sports world.


As Under Armour prepares to launch a new ad campaign, as well as a new retail concept in Baltimore, Adidas is launching a technology it claims will transform running shoes, which is approximately a USD 15 billion business.


The technology is called “Boost.” It’s a new cushion foam offered instead of AVI, which is the material used in about 95 percent of all running shoes.


“You try this shoe on. You run with it. You’re never going to buy another shoe or go back to EVA,” Adidas America President Patrik Nilsson told CNBC at the launch event.


(Read More: Is Under Armour Ready to Take Nike Head On?)


In the box for the USD 150 shoe, there is a steel ball and two swatches of foam: Boost and EVA. If you drop the ball on both, it bounces higher off the boost foam. The company claims that bounce will be as pronounced even after months of running.


“This is the shoe for everybody,” Nilsson said. “It is going to make it more fun and more energetic to run.”


If that’s the case, it could be a boon for Adidas, which has a paltry share of the US running market. The market is dominated by Nike, which accounts for about half of the revenue in the segment.


(Read More: Nike and the NFL: Sizing Up Year No. 1.)


Regardless of how much share Adidas can grab from this new technology, Adidas will use it as a foundation beyond running.


“In 2014, all of the running shoes in the performance segment (will have it), and then we will branch out into basketball,” Nilsson said. “And I can even see this being used in a cleat for RG3 (National Football League star Robert Griffin III) one day.”


(Read More: Swoosh! Inside Nike)


The shoe debuts on store shelves Feb. 27.


—By CNBC’s Brian Shactman

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
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Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?