5 Minutes Read

Will Asian equities rebound in 2012 after tough year?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The risks from Europe`s debt crisis and a global slowdown have left investors in Asia reeling in 2011, but analysts tell CNBC, Asian equities will outperform and push global markets higher in 2012 because of further policy easing and better valuations.

The risks from Europe`s debt crisis and a global slowdown have left investors in Asia reeling in 2011, but analysts tell CNBC, Asian equities will outperform and push global markets higher in 2012 because of further policy easing and better valuations.



Asian stocks measured by the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index have fallen around 15% in 2011, compared to the SandP 500, which is roughly unchanged for the year. According to Vasu Menon, Vice President, Wealth Management Singapore at OCBC Bank that underperformance has created attractive valuations.


“I think Asia ex-Japan is one region you cannot ignore,” Menon said on Friday. “We know if you`re a medium term investor, this is the buying opportunity.”


Menon believes that growth in Asia will slow in 2012, but the fundamental factors underpinning the region remain intact.


“(Asia`s) growth will still outperform the developed markets and Asian governments have better public finances, Asian consumers have better balance sheets as compared to balance sheets of elsewhere, affluence is growing in Asia,” he said.


Michael Kurtz, Chief Asia Equity Strategist at Nomura believes the region`s central banks and governments will also do more in 2012 to boost growth.


“Asian governments, including the Chinese and the Indians, have the policy powder to provide monetary relief as we come into the soft patch of the first quarter (of 2012),” he said. “That move towards (easing) in Asia will be one of the catalysts that starts to push markets higher.”


The biggest risk for investors in the region remains a “hard landing” for China. According to OCBC`s Menon it will take another 3-6 months before the data shows whether China is in for a major slowdown or just a cooling.



In the meantime, he believes, China will ease credit by cutting the reserve requirement ratios (RRR) for banks. “China is loosening up, we`re looking at China easing the RRR by as much as 220 basis points during the course of 2012,” Menon said. “They will not let the economy fall off the cliff, and I think once markets come to realize that, then Chinese equities will come into favor.”


According to Nomura`s Kurtz, investors shouldn`t wait for a policy response before buying stocks because markets could move up rapidly after a policy announcement given the amount of money that is currently short equities.


“f you remember, earlier in December when China announced its RRR cut and it was coordinated with some dollar funding cost easing by other global major central banks, you (had) an 8% rally in one day on the Hang Seng index. And it`s those sorts of potentially very explosive upward rallies in the market that could be driven by policy annoucnements in the first quarter,” Kurtz said.


Among Kurtz`s top recommendations are China-linked Asian equities, such as Australia, which he believes is deeply discounted, and Korea, which he said was a play on both Chinese consumer spending and Chinese capital equipment.


On the other hand, OCBC`s Menon likes Singapore, where he says valuations are attractive.


Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

Stocks end 2011 with a question mark

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The surprise stumble in the economy after the Japanese earth quake and the noxious headwinds from Europe, as it tried to contain its credit crisis, were factors that made forecasting tough in the past year. As a result, many strategists were off the mark with their yearend predictions.

Despite wild swings, the SandP 500 seems set on finishing the year at just about where it started.



The surprise stumble in the economy after the Japanese earth quake and the noxious headwinds from Europe, as it tried to contain its credit crisis, were factors that made forecasting tough in the past year. As a result, many strategists were off the mark with their yearend predictions.


The SandP 500 edged up 13 points Thursday to 1263, and is now 6 points, or 0.4 percent above its final 2010 close. Its high of the year was 1370 and its low was 1075. The broader SandP 500 is the index strategists use to forecast. The 30-component Dow, meanwhile, is 6 percent higher on the year, and it added 135 points Thursday to 12,287.


“For all the volatility, it just seems ironic that the SandP is going to end the

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

Jim Rogers not optimistic about anything but agriculture

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

World markets may be riddled with uncertainty, but billionaire investor Jim Rogers anticipates gains in one sector for years to come.

World markets may be riddled with uncertainty, but billionaire investor Jim Rogers anticipates gains in one sector for years to come.


“If I were buying anything I’d be buying agricultural commodities,

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

Why climate for M&A could get even better in 2012

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

If the US economy is to grow in 2012, it may have to do so on the backs of mergers and acquisitions activity, which is expected to be healthy again after a strong 2011.

If the US economy is to grow in 2012, it may have to do so on the backs of mergers and acquisitions activity, which is expected to be healthy again after a strong 2011.


 


Though much of this year’s M&A movement came in the earlier part of the year, the US still registered a healthy USD 841 billion in deals. That’s a 24% gain from 2010 and the highest since pre-financial crisis levels in 2007, according to Dealogic.


 


With valuations low, corporate cash balances high and tax changes likely to spur deal momentum, economists’ M&A outlook for the coming year is largely positive.


 


The European debt crisis  could weigh in the early part of the year

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

Rising geopolitical tensions threaten oil supplies

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Oil prices are bubbling higher on concerns geopolitical risks to global oil supplies are rising, amid an increase in sectarian violence in Iraq and as Iran reacts to the prospects of increased sanctions.

Oil prices are bubbling higher on concerns geopolitical risks to global oil supplies are rising, amid an increase in sectarian violence in Iraq and as Iran reacts to the prospects of increased sanctions.


 


In the last several weeks, traders point to a confluence of events beyond Iran and Iraq that have added to uncertainty and gained the attention of the oil market.


 


Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

Smartphones killing demand for cameras, camcorders

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Smartphones hogging into demand for cameras and recorders

This year, as I was sorting through pictures for my annual family calendar, I noticed something. A good portion of the pictures I was using were taken not on the brand-new camera we purchased this year, but on my smartphone.



Apparently, I`m not alone. A new study from market researcher NPD confirms that consumers are now taking more than a quarter of their photos and videos on their smartphones.


The percentage of photos taken with a smartphone (Apple’s iPhone or any other smartphone) rose to 27% from 17% last year, while the share of photos taken on any camera dropped from 52% to 44%.


Already this behavior has hurt demand for camcorders and lower-end point-and-shoot cameras. According to NPD`s Retail Tracking Service, the point-and-shoot camera market was down 17% in units and 18% in dollars for the first 11 months of this year.


Sales of pocket camcorders also fell, dropping 13% in units and 27% in dollars while traditional flash camcorder sales declined 8% in units and 10% in dollars, according to NPD.


“There is no doubt that the smartphone is becoming `good enough` much of the time; but thanks to mobile phones, more pictures are being taken than ever before,” said Liz Cutting, executive director and senior imaging analyst at NPD, in a press release.


That`s an observation that`s not likely to surprise many people who have now grown accustomed to seeing people frequently taking pictures of their dinner or documenting every event – big or small – in great detail.



“Consumers who use their mobile phones to take pictures and video were more likely to do so instead of their camera when capturing spontaneous moments, but for important events, single-purpose cameras or camcorders are still largely the device of choice.”


That may explain why there still is some growth in the camera market. Sales of cameras with a detachable lens rose 12% in units and 11% in dollars during the same 11-month period. These high-end cameras cost an average of USD 863.


Also popular were point-and-shoot cameras with optical zooms of 10-times or greater, which grew by 16% in units and 10% in dollars. Cameras in this category cost an average of USD 247.


These types of cameras are likely to continue to have their supporters, as photography is a popular hobby. However, with smartphone cameras getting better and better, consumers will rely on them more and more.


A lot of that has to do with convenience. Smartphones make it easier to share photos with family and friends. A few clicks and the image is posted to Facebook, emailed off to a grandparent, or published in a blog. And smartphone apps like Hipstamatic make it fun and easy to tinker with special effects on the image.


Also, smartphones are always in your pocket, allowing you to snap when the moment is right. Because you never know when you`re going to see a rainbow, stumble on a funny sign or see a FedEx guy drop your package over your fence.



Questions? Comments? Email us at consumernation@cnbc.com. Follow Christina Cheddar Berk on Twitter @ccheddarberk.



Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

Five things investors have to worry about in 2012

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Investors can blame Europe for choking off stock market gains in 2011, but there’s a growing list of geopolitical flashpoints lurking in 2012—and any one of them could pose a risk to stocks.

Investors can blame Europe for choking off stock market gains in 2011, but there

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

Chart analysis had 70% strike rate this year

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

This time of the year is usually the time to look forward with forecasts for the next year. For us, it’s time to look back. Trading the market is a hazardous business. It’s based on analysis of the market and the assessment of probability outcomes.

This time of the year is usually the time to look forward with forecasts for the next year. For us, it’s time to look back. Trading the market is a hazardous business. It`s based on analysis of the market and the assessment of probability outcomes.



This is the most important difference between forecasting and prediction. Forecasting uses the higher probability situation in an attempt to project future price action and acts in anticipation of this. When we see the signal we can forecast the action for a selected period of time.


Prediction carries a high level of certainty about the occurrence of events at a specific time. This leaves little room for probability, although there are times when such predictions match the co-incident events.


So when we look back from December 2010 to the end of November 2011 we ask the question; How did we do? What is the record of success and failure?


We wrote 52 columns during this period. Of those, five columns were about general issues such as how to draw accurate trend lines and did not involve any outlooks, chart analysis or price targets. This leaves 47 columns where the analysis identified the higher probability outcomes and provided targets.


Our success rate on these calls – where the index or price moved to reach the targets identified in the article – was 70.29 percent. Sometimes targets were exceeded. Fund managers feel very happy if they can get around 55 percent correct calls. Our rate of 70.29 percent is above industry standard and is around the same level as our 10-year average in our personal trading.


The best calls were two times with the Dow, the Sensex and two times with the euro/dollar. The first call with the Dow was the identification of the head and shoulder pattern in June. The fall in the Dow achieved and exceeded the initial downside targets prior to developing a rebound.


The second call on the Dow was the conditions of the L-shaped recovery and the trigger rises that identified the genuine breakout.


The Sensex call was the identification of the long term down sloping triangle, both as a bearish factor and in terms of setting downside targets. These targets are being achieved.


The volatility on the euro/dollar chart makes analysis difficult. We called the $1.49 May high. We also called the current downtrend lows. This analysis was based on the chart pattern developments.


The worst calls – the ones where the market moved in the lower probability outcomes, was our calls for an up trend continuation with gold. The change in margin requirements a few days after the column was posted created a price plunge.


It is obviously better to get as high a percentage of calls correct as possible. However, this is not where trading success is found. Trading success comes from three factors. The first is to structure the analysis so you can recognize very quickly where the outcome is at the lower end of the probability scale. The second factor is developing the discipline to act quickly on stop loss. The third factor is the ability to quickly apply new analysis to recognize the changed circumstances.



Daryl Guppy is a trader and author of Trend Trading, The 36 Strategies of the Chinese for Financial Traders –www.guppytraders.com . He is a regular guest on CNBC`s Asia Squawk Box. He is a speaker at trading conferences in China, Asia, Australia and Europe.


If you would like Daryl to chart a specific stock, commodity or currency, please write to us at ChartingAsia@cnbc.com. We welcome all questions, comments and requests.


CNBC assumes no responsibility for any losses, damages or liability whatsoever suffered or incurred by any person, resulting from or attributable to the use of the information published on this site. User is using this information at his/her sole risk.



Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

Roubini: Eurozone ‘in denial,’ US postpones reforms

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Noted economist Nouriel Roubini, credited for predicted the financial crisis, made a plea to policymakers to take tough action needed to address current economic problems, in an article published on the Financial Times website.

Noted economist Nouriel Roubini, credited for predicted the financial crisis, made a plea to policymakers to take tough action needed to address current economic problems, in an article published on the Financial Times website.



“The Eurozone has been in denial of the fact that some of its member states are insolvent, as well as unable to survive and grow in a monetary union,” he wrote.


In the US, fiscal consolidation was postponed and other structural reforms – such as investment in infrastructure, skills, and education, as well as changes to energy policy, all measures needed to restore growth – were also postponed, Roubini wrote.


As for China, it has “persisted in its weak currency, to support its export and investment-led growth model where savings are too high and consumption too low,” the economist, dubbed by some in the media as Dr. Doom for his gloomy scenarios, added.


On Tuesday, European Central Bank Vice-President Vitor Constancio told CNBC in an interview that a break-up of the euro was “unthinkable” and “absurd.”


But Roubini warned that political considerations, which prevent leaders from taking tough decisions, yielding results only in the medium term, could lead to currency and trade wars.



“It will become clear in 2012 that this game of `kicking the can down the road` is a zero-sum game,” he wrote.


Any country would rather have a weak currency to boost its exports to restore growth, and currency tensions will make the situation worse next year, when a combination of market pressures and conflicting political constrains “will make it more difficult to kick the can down the road,” Roubini predicted.


“By 2013 at the latest, but possibly already in 2012, a perfect storm of a double-dip recession in the U.S., a disorderly scenario in the euro zone and a hard landing in China could materialize,” he wrote.


Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

Economy a ‘hostage’ to politicians in 2012: Strategist

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The year ahead will see slow global economic growth combined with political uncertainty to create to a similar outlook for stock markets to 2011 with a significant chance of continued stock market volatility, according to a research note published by HSBC`s global head of equity strategy, Gary Evans.

The year ahead will see slow global economic growth combined with political uncertainty to create to a similar outlook for

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?