Neogen Chemicals shares can rally another 32.5%, says Kotak; Stock rallies most in a year
Summary
Kotak in a note said that Neogen is on track to become the first mover in the battery chemicals segment in India owing to the work it has done in this space over the past few years—further validated by the technology partnership it has managed to strike with MUIS (Japan).
Shares of Neogen Chemicals Ltd. zoomed 12% on Thursday, marking their biggest single-day gain since April 2023. This was after domestic brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities initiated coverage on the stock with a ‘Buy’ rating and a price target of ₹1,840 per share.
Kotak sees Neogen as a credible growth story in India’s specialty chemicals industry, thanks to its esteemed promoters led by PI’s former executive director Anurag Surana. Additionally, it said the company’s track record of rapid growth is driven by innovation and enterprise, and its partnerships with Mitsubishi and global customers.
Kotak in a note said that Neogen is on track to become the first mover in the battery chemicals segment in India owing to the work it has done in this space over the past few years—further validated by the technology partnership it has managed to strike with MUIS (Japan).
The company is targeting a market share of more than 30% within battery electrolytes in India by 2030 — a large opportunity. Additionally, in its base business, the company continues to invest in new product development and is seeing traction in the CSM business.
Neogen expects a revenue of ₹900-1,050 crore from its base business by FY26 and another ₹2,500-2,950 crore from the battery chemicals business by FY29. “Our estimates are closer to the lower end of the guidance range,” the brokerage noted.
Kotak expects Neogen to sustain 18-20% EBITDA margins once its new capacities for battery chemicals are optimally utilised by FY29. The return of capital employed (RoCE) is likely to remain under pressure for the next few years until utilization ramps up, but should thereafter recover toward 20%, given healthy underlying economics.
The brokerage estimates 34% revenue and 40% EPS CAGRs for Neogen over FY23 to FY29, led by commencement of battery chemical revenues and supported by continued healthy growth in the base business of bromine and lithium derivatives.
The company’s balance sheet leverage has been an area of concern, given its long working capital cycle and aggressive growth plans.
While management has been guiding to reduce the net working capital cycle to 120 days from 170-180 at present, progress has been slow amid industry challenges.
The aggressive capex plan will exert further pressure on the balance sheet, highlighted Kotak in its note.
The brokerage added that dilution to equity-holders is a real possibility at some point, but the attractiveness of the growth story more than compensates.
The stock settled 11.26% higher at ₹1,544 apiece on the NSE.
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