Category: Commodities

Gold prices near ₹72,000 per 10 grams now: Should you buy amid the recent rate drop?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Gold prices inched marginally higher on Wednesday (April 24). On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for June expiry showed a modest uptick of 0.15% per 10 grams. According to Goodsreturn data, the price of 22 karat gold rose by ₹45 to ₹6,660 per gram, while 24 karat (999 gold) pure gold stood at ₹7,216 per gram.

The slight gain comes on the heels of a downward trajectory observed in the yellow metal for the past two days.

Tuesday saw gold prices hitting a more than two-week low as diminishing fears about escalated tensions in the Middle East prompted investors to book profits.

Internationally, gold prices also experienced a modest uptick on Wednesday but remained ensnared within a narrow range.

Spot gold rose by 0.2% to $2,327.86 per ounce by 0429 GMT after having hit its lowest since April 5 in the previous session, as per Reuters.

US gold futures remained steady at $2,340.90.

Reasons for fluctuation

The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to investor caution amidst uncertainty surrounding US economic data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.

Analysts suggest that the false break of $2,300 on Tuesday indicates a continuation of gold prices being range-bound in the near term, awaiting clarity from upcoming US inflation data and the BOJ meeting, according to news agency Reuters.

The outlook and investment strategy

Despite the recent downturn, experts remain optimistic about gold’s trajectory.

According to Riya Singh, Research Analyst at Emkay Global Financial Services, the bullish trend of gold is expected to persist, underpinned by continued central bank buying, especially from Asian and other emerging markets.

Singh emphasised that considering indicators like relative strength indexes (RSIs) is crucial, as periods of consolidation or correction are inevitable after overbought conditions.

Additionally, speculation arises regarding potential interventions by Japan to support the weakening yen, inadvertently supporting gold’s resurgence by denting the strength of the US dollar.

Motilal Oswal is also optimistic about the gold bull market, foreseeing support from a weaker dollar, a fall in yields, and a sustained rise in hedging demand linked to rising economic and geopolitical risk.

The firm noted a significant increase in net long positions in gold.

Motilal advised investors to consider strategic allocation to gold in portfolios, emphasising its role as a safe-haven asset amidst economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

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World’s biggest energy traders are returning to the metals markets

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Some of the world’s biggest energy trading companies are returning to metals, years after getting burnt in the notoriously difficult markets.

Vitol Group, Gunvor Group and Mercuria Energy Group are among the traders building out their metals teams, as they look to deploy capital generated by record profits.

The shift comes as forecasters turn increasingly bullish on copper, aluminum and other metals, where long-anticipated production shortfalls are starting to take shape. Many commodities houses also see strong links between metals usage and power markets — another growth area for traders.

The energy giants are entering a sector that’s proven difficult to trade in the past, and one that’s largely dominated by two players: Glencore Plc and Trafigura Group. Their arrival could challenge smaller-scale metals traders, which have struggled to turn a profit in recent years as soaring energy prices and supply chain disruptions crimped demand from manufacturers.

“For the oil traders, there’s a whole energy transition story, but they’ve also got the cash to take significant positions,” said Kristofer Tremaine, chief executive officer of Kimura Capital, a lender to the commodities sector. “A lot of metal traders should be worried – they’re going to lose a lot of market share.”

The early signs are that the new players are betting on bulk, with bigger volumes a good fit for the large-scale transportation networks of firms that move millions of barrels of oil per day.

As well as derivatives trader Woody Zhang, Gunvor recently brought in Paolo Cabrejos, formerly of Traxys, and Michael Gerard, formerly of IXM, to build out a concentrates trading business, according to people familiar with the matter. That adds to a group of traders largely focused on aluminum that it hired late last year.

“As a company, what we’re really doing is continuing our deep involvement in energy markets,” said Ivan Petev, global head of base metals at Gunvor. “The energy transition goes through metals — you cannot do it without metals.”

Vitol is also initially focusing on aluminum, with Benjamin Seaford and William Gayner set to join from Mercuria. The world’s biggest independent oil trader has also hired an iron ore veteran to trade that paper market.

“The bigger, commoditized metal markets are probably more suited to us because most of what we do is large scale commodity movements,” Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said in an interview on the sidelines of a conference earlier this month. “So lithium, cobalt or other battery metals hasn’t really crossed our thought process.”

Mercuria has held talks about hiring Kostas Bintas — Trafigura’s former co-head of metals and notorious copper bull — to build out a large-scale base metals trading business.

The ability of the energy traders to deploy vast amounts of capital could potentially have a big impact on metals markets. Vitol, Trafigura, Mercuria and Gunvor made combined profits of more than $50 billion over the past two years and are already investing in physical assets.

In metals, it’s also common for traders to enter pre-payment deals with mining and smelting companies for future production.

Mercuria, which already has a mine seeding business, recently held talks with Vedanta Resources over funding the restart of its Konkola Copper Mines in Zambia, according to people familiar with the matter. Vedanta didn’t respond to a request for comment, while Mercuria declined to comment.

Still, Mercuria, Vitol and Gunvor are all returning to metals after previous mishaps that contributed to them winding down their trading books.

Vitol had been an active player, particularly in tolling metal in the former Soviet Union during the 1990s, and it held investments in a zinc plant and aluminum products manufacturer in Russia.

But its Euromin unit reported “significant losses” in 1995, company records show, on the back of “political instability” and the receipt of a “significant tonnage of substandard aluminium sheet and poor handling of inventory.” Still, after a restructuring the company continued trade alumina until 2019.

Mercuria had a series of high profile difficulties in its metals book, including falling victim in 2014 to an infamous fraud involving multiple pledging of warehouse receipts at China’s Qingdao port. Later it sued a Turkish supplier for delivering painted rocks instead of $36 million of copper, while a bullish bet on zinc concentrates was countered by a flood of material from new mines.

Gunvor closed a substantial base metals book — mainly focused on copper — in 2016 after a loss linked to the insolvency of Prateek Gupta’s Ushdev International Ltd. An internal memo obtained by Bloomberg at the time cited “risk factors such as pricing and counterparty behavior” behind the decision to shutter the metals trading desk.

This year, metals markets have provided trading opportunities for many in the sector: regional premiums for aluminum are rising in Europe, while copper concentrate treatment charges have nosedived to record lows. New sanctions on Russian metals have also spurred volatility, as traders look to game new London Metal Exchange warehousing rules.

“We see an exciting decade going forward in these markets,” Vitol’s Hardy said at the conference.

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Gold prices slip to over two-week low as Middle East tensions ease

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Gold prices fell on Tuesday to their lowest levels in more than two weeks on easing concerns of an escalation in the Middle East crisis, and as investors booked profits while awaiting key U.S. data for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory.

Spot gold was down nearly 1% at $2,304.99 per ounce, as of 0336 GMT US gold futures fell 1.2% to $2,318.80.

“Gold has been the recipient of different types of buying flows in recent months, and now one of those flows has slightly dried up with safe-haven demand receding,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst, KCM Trade.

Gold dipped more than 2% in the previous session, marking its biggest intraday fall in more than a year, as fears of a wider regional conflict eased after Iran said it had no plan to retaliate following an apparent Israeli drone attack.

“Investors are seeing this as an opportunity to lock in some profits after gold’s recent run of good form,” Waterer said.

Gold hit a record high of $2,431.29 on April 12.

This week’s main economic focus will be on gross domestic product (GDP) data on Thursday and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) print on Friday.

“If these happen to produce a beat to the upside we could see a further extension of the wait for interest rate relief. Such a scenario could cause the gold price to take a larger step back … in the short term from an opportunity cost perspective,” Waterer said.

Markets forecast for a 0.3% increase in the headline PCE number in March, unchanged from the previous month, and a year-on-year gain of 2.6%, compared with a 2.5% increase in February, according to a Reuters poll.

Among other precious metals, spot silver fell about 1% to $26.92 per ounce, spot platinum dropped 0.7% to $911.10, and palladium slumped 1.1% to $997.75.

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Here’s why gold prices declined today | Check latest rates in your city

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Gold prices fell more than 1% on Monday (April 22) as concerns of a broader conflict in the Middle East eased prompted investors to embrace riskier assets. This reduced the appeal of gold as a safe-haven investment, experts said.

As of 0929 GMT, spot gold recorded a 1.2% decline, settling at $2,362.09 per ounce, while US gold futures saw a 1.6% drop to $2,376.10, according to news agency Reuters.

Back home,  gold for June delivery fell by 1.04% to reach ₹72,050 per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).

Here’s a table displaying the gold rates in various cities in India (as of April 22):

Analysts attribute the decline in gold prices to diminished likelihood of immediate rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.

Reports suggest that a rate cut may not materialise until September, which has dampened the demand for gold as a hedge against inflation.

Additionally, the strengthening of the US dollar and rising bond yields have further propelled the downward trend in gold prices.

The recent drone strike by Israel on Iran, which was met with subdued responses from Tehran, has alleviated concerns of an escalation in tensions between the two nations.

This has also diminished the need for safe-haven assets like gold.

Despite the current setback, analysts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of gold.

Citi research forecasts a surge in yellow metal during the second half of 2024, with gold projected to reach $2,500 per ounce.

However, there may be a temporary pullback in prices before the end of the second quarter, it said.

In a recent conversation with CNBC Awaaz, Mahendra Luniya, Chairman of Vighnaharta Gold, projected that gold rates may reach ₹1.68 lakh per 10 grams by the year 2030.

ALSO READ | Looking to buy physical gold amid bullish outlook? Know purchase limits and taxation rules

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Looking to buy physical gold amid bullish outlook? Know purchase limits and taxation rules

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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With gold prices on the ascent and experts forecasting further gains, many individuals may be considering buying physical gold. However, what many may not realise is that there are limits to how much gold one can legally possess.

According to the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT), purchases of gold using sources such as agricultural income, legal inheritance, or savings from household finances are not subject to taxation.

Furthermore, if the quantity of gold purchased falls within specified limits, income tax officials cannot confiscate gold ornaments during raids.

For physical gold, recent CBDT guidelines stipulate that men (whether married or unmarried) can possess up to 100 grams of jewelry or physical gold.

Additionally, women can hold between 250 grams and 500 grams.

For married women, the limit is 500 grams, while for unmarried women, it is 250 grams.

Taxation on gold, meanwhile, varies depending on its form.

Investment in physical form is taxable like any other capital asset.

If gold is held for more than 3 years, it is taxable as Long Term Capital Gain (LTCG) at 20% (exclusive of education cess and surcharge) and Short Term Capital gain is taxable at normal tax slab applicable to the investor.

Gold ETFs/gold MFs are also taxable like physical gold.

Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs), on the other hand, are taxed as income from other sources. In case the bonds are held to maturity, the capital gains are tax-exempt.

However, capital gains are payable on the transfer of SGB like transfer of physical gold or ETF or Gold MF.

The bonds are traded on exchanges in demat form and redeemable after the fifth year.

When sold before maturity, the gains are long-term capital gains and taxable at 20% (plus education cess and surcharge).

The purchase price can be indexed using the cost inflation index.

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Copper prices near $10,000 as investors bet on rising global demand

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Copper edged closer to $10,000 a ton after an April rally fueled by bets that a recovering global economy will lift demand for industrial materials.

Metals have posted broad gains in recent weeks, and copper opened Monday with a fresh advance to a two-year high. Signs of improvement in manufacturing activity from the US to China have buoyed metals, and stubborn inflation is attracting renewed wagers on commodities.

Investors are contending with an apparent shift in the Federal Reserve’s path toward interest-rate cuts, with Chair Jerome Powell signaling last week that it’s going to take the bank “longer than expected” to be sure that inflation is under control.

Copper climbed 1% early Monday to reach $9,970 a ton, before trading at $9,950 by 9:55 AM in Shanghai. Other metals were mixed, with aluminum and zinc slightly lower.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

China beats India again as the world’s biggest gold buyer

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Gold’s rise to all-time highs above $2,400 an ounce this year has captivated global markets. China, the world’s biggest producer and consumer of the precious metal, is front and center of the extraordinary ascent.

Worsening geopolitical tensions, including war in the Middle East and Ukraine, and the prospect of lower US interest rates all burnish gold’s billing as an investment. But juicing the rally is unrelenting Chinese demand, as retail shoppers, fund investors, futures traders and even the central bank look to bullion as a store of value in uncertain times.

Biggest Buyer

China and India have typically vied over the title of world’s biggest buyer. But that shifted last year as Chinese consumption of jewelry, bars and coins swelled to record levels. China’s gold jewelry demand rose 10% while India’s fell 6%. Chinese bar and coin investments, meanwhile, surged 28%.

And there’s still room for demand to grow, said Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Hong Kong-based consultant Precious Metals Insights Ltd. Amid limited investment options in China, the protracted crisis in its property sector, volatile stock markets and a weakening yuan are all driving money to assets that are perceived to be safer.

“The weight of money available under these circumstances for an asset like gold – and actually for new buyers to come in – is pretty considerable,” he said. “There isn’t much alternative in China. With exchange controls and capital controls, you can’t just look at other markets to put your money into.”

Imports Jump

Although China mines more gold than any other country, it still needs to import a lot and the quantities are getting larger. In the last two years, overseas purchases totaled over 2,800 tons — more than all of the metal that backs exchange-traded funds around the world, or about a third of the stockpiles held by the US Federal Reserve.

Even so, the pace of shipments has accelerated lately. Imports surged in the run-up to China’s Lunar New Year, a peak season for gifts, and over the first three months of the year are 34% higher than they were in 2023.

Central Bank

The People’s Bank of China has been on a buying spree for 17 straight months, its longest-ever run of purchases, as it looks to diversify its reserves away from the dollar and hedge against currency depreciation.

It’s the keenest buyer among a number central banks that are favoring gold. The official sector snapped up near-record levels of the precious metal last year and is expected to keep purchases elevated in 2024.

Shanghai Premium

It’s indicative of gold’s allure that Chinese demand remains so buoyant, despite record prices and a weaker yuan that robs buyers of purchasing power.

As a major importer, gold buyers in China often have to pay a premium over international prices. That jumped to $89 an ounce at the start of the month. The average over the past year is $35 versus a historical average of just $7.

For sure, sky-high prices are likely to temper some enthusiasm for bullion, but the market’s proving to be unusually resilient. Chinese consumers have typically snapped up gold when prices drop, which has helped establish a floor for the market during times of weakness. Not so this time, as China’s appetite is helping to prop up prices at much higher levels.

That suggests the rally is sustainable and gold buyers everywhere should be comforted by China’s booming demand, said Nikos Kavalis, managing director at consultancy Metals Focus Ltd.

China’s authorities, which can be quite hostile to market speculation, are less sanguine. State media have warned investors to be cautious in chasing the rally, while both the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange have raised margin requirements on some contracts to snuff out excessive risk-taking. SHFE’s move followed a surge in daily trading volumes to a five-year high.

ETF Flows

A less frenetic way to invest in gold is via exchange-traded funds. Money has flowed into gold ETFs in mainland China during almost every month since June, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. That compares with chunky outflows in gold funds in the rest of the world.

The influx of money has totaled $1.3 billion so far this year, compared with $4 billion in outflows from funds overseas. Restrictions on investing in China are again a factor here, given the fewer options for Chinese beyond domestic property and stocks.

Chinese demand could continue to rise as investors look to diversify their holdings with commodities, BI analyst Rebecca Sin said in a note.

On the Wire

Chile imposed temporary anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese steel products used in the country’s mining industry in a bid to support faltering local producers. The move pushed Cap SA to reverse a decision to wind down its steel mills.

China’s most-promising industries are facing a growing threat of trade restrictions from Western governments, blurring the outlook for stocks that have the potential to fuel the nation’s market growth.

With Beijing already becoming a top target in the US election campaign, President Xi Jinping’s government is resisting any move that could backfire on the world’s second-largest economy.

When you introduce a raft of tariffs and restrictions to protect domestic industries, you’d better make sure there are some around to protect. That’s a major problem with the US decision to treat China’s clean technology leadership as grounds for a trade fight.

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Gold prices surge: This expert thinks rates may rise up to ₹1.68 lakh per 10 grams by 2030

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Gold has witnessed a significant surge in its value lately. The precious metal soared by over 13% in the initial quarter of 2024, solidifying its position as one of the top-performing asset classes.

Looking forward, industry experts are bullish on gold.

In a recent conversation with CNBC Awaaz, Mahendra Luniya, Chairman of Vighnaharta Gold, projected that gold rates may reach ₹1.68 lakh per 10 grams by the year 2030.

The surge in gold prices finds its roots in a confluence of factors, ranging from geopolitical tensions to global economic slowdowns.

Central bank purchases, inflationary pressures, heightened retail demand, increased interest through Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), stagnant gold mining production since 2016, and the ramifications of de-dollarisation have all contributed to the rise in gold’s value.

The question then arises: where should one allocate investments?

Experts caution against waiting for a price correction, as the volatile nature of the market offers no guarantees of a downward trend.

Instead, they advocate for a strategic approach that capitalises on gold’s inherent qualities.

Gold serves as a reliable hedge against inflation and acts as a diversification tool within investment portfolios.

Therefore, experts suggest that investors carefully evaluate their portfolios and consider dedicating a portion, typically around 10% or less, to gold.

In this regard, Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs) emerge as an attractive option.

These bonds offer a sense of security against market uncertainties and facilitate portfolio diversification.

Given the promising outlook for gold prices, experts say purchasing gold is a prudent move for the next 4-5 years.

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Gold prices steady amid geopolitical tensions: Check city-wise rates today

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The price of 24-carat gold exhibited a marginal decline of ₹10 in early trade on Friday, April 19, according to data sourced from the GoodReturns website. 10 grams of the precious metal were valued at ₹73,790.

The disparity in gold prices across key Indian cities is evident, as depicted in the following table:

Globally, gold has been buoyed by escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran.

Investors, seeking refuge from geopolitical uncertainty, have flocked to gold, driving its prices higher, according to news agency Reuters report.

US gold prices surged on Friday, poised for their fifth consecutive weekly gain, reflecting the ongoing demand for safe-haven assets amidst political turmoil.

Everett Millman, chief market analyst with Gainesville Coins, emphasised the role of geopolitical tensions in influencing gold prices.

“When there are geopolitical tensions, the natural response is for investors to flee to gold, which is happening now,” he was quoted as saying in a Reuters report.

Millman suggested that in the event of further escalation, gold prices could soar to $2,500-2,600 per ounce, whereas a ceasefire could prompt a decline to $2,200.

In the domestic market, experts foresee a continuation of upward momentum.

Notably, the yellow metal has already surged more than 15% in the past three months and emerged as the best-performing asset class since the beginning of 2024.

Nirav Bhansali, a member of the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), predicts further growth, stating that gold prices may surge to ₹75,000 per 10 grams by the year’s end.

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Codelco Copper output affected by fatal accident, says Chile minister

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Codelco, the Chilean state company battling to retain the title of world’s largest copper supplier, is set to suffer a dip in output amid a slow resumption of operations after a fatal accident at one of its mines.

“April is probably going to go down a little,” Mining Minister Aurora Williams said in an interview in Santiago Thursday. “Naturally, we have a contingency there that we hope will recover in the third quarter of this year.”

The Radomiro Tomic operation halted mining after an accident last month in the latest disruption to mines and projects at Codelco, whose production has slumped to the lowest in a quarter century. Both Williams and Chairman Maximo Pacheco say Codelco is on track to increase production this year, with a drop in output in the first quarter in line with internal targets.

Codelco declined to comment on Radomiro Tomic’s restart. Union boss Ricardo Torrejon said that only about a third of the open pit’s truck fleet is operating and the mine isn’t scheduled to get back to normal until the first or second week of May. Separately, Codelco’s Chuquicamata underground mine began a 15-day scheduled maintenance on Monday.

The plight of Codelco has been a key topic at the Cesco Week industry event in Santiago this week, given concerns that there may not be enough supply of the wiring metal to meet the needs of the energy transition. Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange have rallied this year to 22-month highs.

The slide in Chilean production to 20-year lows has also supported prices. The slump is about to end as the giant Quebrada Blanca expansion ramps up, with output to grow about 5% this year and 6% next year, she said. To be sure, the guidance for this year is lower than a previous 5.7% projection due to updates of company data, Williams said.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow