Category: International

India-Canada row — Justin Trudeau fired a gun without the bullet

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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PM Justin Trudeau of Canada jumped the gun without the bullet as is the want of many a politicians, who wish to create sensationalism by ranting out baseless accusations of foreign interference without any credible evidence, simply to marshal the public opinion to salvage themselves. It is a given that they don’t gain as much as they lose.

But a sensitive subject like harbouring and enabling extremism and terrorists make it even more questionable since it puts the country’s reputation at stake. Do Canadians support terrorism or extremism, of course not but whether their current leadership does is a question which has been duly proved by the Trudeau legacy. 

Also Read: India Canada news LIVE | Visa ban implemented to stop separatists from hampering the sovereignty of India, says Sunil Jakhar

Case of slain Canadian Sikh separatist militant leader Harmit Singh Nijjar (in June killed by masked gunmen) and Trudeau and his foreign minister eulogising him left no doubt that perhaps he and many others like him thrived due to their patronage.

Moreover, Trudeau accused India — a country that follows ‘zero tolerance’ to terrorism policy and has suffered from violent extremism and terrorism for nearly five decades from across the border. India has also faced externally induced insurgency which is perpetrated with the support of external powers who have made terrorism as the fundamental of their foreign policy with utter impunity from their benefactors and the vocalists in the West.

Trudeau seems to be taking Canada in that direction by actively jeopardising the relationship with India. An irony indeed.

Also Read: India suspends visa service operations in Canada until further notice, says BLS International

His diplomatic indiscretions are far too many. When he came on a bilateral visit in 2018, when India gave a chance to redeem the relationship, he brought along a Khalistani extremist leader even he and family went about shouting their Indian wardrobe. Superficiality and suspicion go hand in hand. This time at G20 he also made remarks that would embolden the Khalistani extremists in his country.

Under the garb of democracy, he allowed Khalistani Referendum in direct affront to India’s sovereignty. If he loves Khalistan so much, why doesn’t he change the name ‘British Columbia’ into ‘Canadian State of Khalistan’. Perhaps, he could win another election.

Also Read: Canadian high commission ‘temporarily adjusting staff presence in India’ amid diplomatic row

Coming to his G20 Summit in New Delhi, PM Modi extended due courtesies to the visiting dignitary, despite India’s deep concerns on separatism and terrorism being directed from Canadian soil against India directly or through Pakistani deep state whose objective was clearly aligned to destabilise India. Apparently, Trudeau raised the extra-judicial killing of Nijjar and potential hand of Indian agencies with PM Modi in Delhi. It was outright rejected as absurd and unsubstantiated with any evidence whatsoever. On the other hand, PM Modi firmly took up various cases, incidents and threats against Indian citizens and diplomats and asked Canada to deal with them appropriately. A statement by Ministry of External Affairs articulated; “We are a democratic polity with a strong commitment to rule of law.”

Such unsubstantiated allegations seek to shift the focus from Khalistani terrorists and extremists, who have been provided shelter in Canada and continue to threaten India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The inaction of the Canadian government on this matter has been a long-standing and continuing concern. That Canadian political figures have openly expressed sympathy for such elements remains a matter of deep concern. The space given in Canada to a range of illegal activities including murders, human trafficking and organised crime is ‘not new’, saying it all.  

Nearly every single act of murder and violence in Punjab had a link in Canada. Only two days ago a Congress politician was killed in daylight which was commissioned from Canada and claimed on a Facebook post. No doubt the actions and politically motivated riots in 1984 did hurt the sensibilities of many Sikhs but the wounds are being healed. Despite this the Sikhs are proud Indians. Even in Canada it is ONLY a miniscule yet well-oiled politically vociferous groups who overtly prevail on the silent majority of Sikhs and Panjabis who constitute the second largest population outside of Punjab. I guess this is the time for them to speak up .

It is not a question of Canada but of Counter-Terrorism where India cannot compromise because it impinges directly on our security and sovereignty. Hopefully the Five Eyes understand it with their eyes open. Terrorism and Extremism cannot be countered as long as the world powers and countries play around with ‘my terrorist is good and those not with me are rogues’. 

Terrorism is Terrorism’..Khalas! In the case of Canada, there is a trail going back to four decades from Trudeau senior to Trudeau Junior. Although they started accepting immigrants including the illegal ones like Nijjar with great alacrity and enabled and provided them to continue their tirade against India. Several militant outfits were raised, which eventually became political actors as well, especially out of British Columbia.

Place of worship — the holy Gurudwaras became their legal habitat and all this with the connivance and political patronage. Kanishka crash when 329 precious lives were lost — no credible action was taken and eventually the criminals were also set free emboldening their enterprise. Gurmeet Singh of the New Democratic Party and known India baiter is also an alliance partner of Justin Trudeau whose own popularity has tanked and hence he has become increasingly more insecure and dependent on such extremist constituents.

During the farmers agitation (2021) he openly issued statement which amounts to interference in India’s internal affairs. Hence it is no wonder that they sing songs in their praise. What an irony!

Result is that these extremist elements have become vociferous and dangerous and are threatening Indian diplomats, citizens and interests apart from creating problems in India.

After the claims made by Trudeau in the House of Commons and his foreign Minister asking an Indian diplomat to leave, the situation has worsened. All these faux pas, without any shred of evidence which has even been averred by the Opposition Leader in the Canadian Parliament.

His Five Eyes partners also do not appear convinced even as they have expressed some concerns and want the perpetrators to be brought to justice. Instead of confronting and taking action against terrorists in their country they are raising the bogey of sovereignty which smacks of utter hypocrisy. They were behind President Bush who talking of 9/11 terrorists, claimed that “we shall smoke them out’ wherever they are and invasion of Afghanistan began when no Afghan was involved in the 9/11 attacks. But the world stood with them since terrorism and extremists are universal threats and global solidarity is a must, but probably not for the Trudeaus.

Meanwhile, bilateral relations continue to go down with threat perceptions increasing for Indians in Canada. Discussion on India-Canada Free Trade agreement have been paused or suspended. Both sides have expelled a diplomat each and more may follow and we might be looking at downgrading the diplomatic representation as well. Indian government has issued an advisory to Indians stating; “​In view of growing anti-India activities and politically-condoned hate crimes and criminal violence in Canada, all Indian nationals there and those contemplating travel are urged to exercise utmost caution. Recently, threats have particularly targeted Indian diplomats and sections of the Indian community who oppose the anti-India agenda.”

India has suspended visa services to Canadian citizens to ensure its security.

All this for the snub and snobbery of the Canadian Prime Minister who seems to be hell bent on placing his country in the company of some of our neighbours for whom cross border terrorism and its sponsorship is an article of faith.

Hope the good Canadian citizens will see it as a wake-up call.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

World View | BRICS Summit — know why this non-western model is not necessarily anti-western

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Amidst the feverish G20 Summit preparations in India and India’s exceptional space and lunar success, Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarked for the in person BRICS Summit in South Africa after three years (August 22-24). During the very first interaction in Johannesburg, he spoke of India as the engine for global economic growth and the need for resilient and inclusive supply chains post Covid for the Global welfare of the Global south at the BRICS Leaders Dialogue Forum.

Post the successful landing of the’ Vikram’ PM also called Indian space success an achievement for the world and he advocated space cooperation through BRICS Space Exploration Consortium for BRICS countries and the global south among various other proposals including skill mapping, education and traditional medicine and conservation.

He vehemently supported expansion of the BRICS family and India helped in forging a consensus on the criteria for inclusion. He also sought the support of other BRICS members for the inclusion of African union (AU) as a full member at the Delhi G20 Summit. PM Modi welcomed new members which include Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, Ethiopia and Argentina — most of whom are India’s strategic partners and have tremendous heft in the regional landscape.

Also Read: BRICS Summit — India is the only dependable bridge between BRICS and the US

BRICS is also emerging as a forum of major energy producers and consumers accounting for over 38 percent of natural gas and 42 percent oil and 67 percent coal. As per another estimate they account for nearly 90 percent of global solar panel supplies and EV batteries. Hence the role going forward will have significant calculus in the energy and security policies.

15th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg was a landmark for this ‘Global South‘ comprised and oriented organisation even as the founder of the acronym Jim O’Neil recently expressed his dismay over the flagging of a potential BRICS currency at the expense of US dollar. Perhaps he is beginning to erroneously underestimate the potential and resolve of the Grouping, forgetting that ‘Jinnie is out of the bottle’.

No wonder South Africa themed the Summit as “BRICS and Africa: For Mutually accelerated Growth; Sustainable Development and Inclusive Multilateralism’ which inter alia encapsulates the priorities. They  invited 69 leaders from nearly all of Africa and from Asia and Latin America including those showing interest in joining the expanded BRICS. They are part of the BRICS Plus Dialogue and BRICS Africa outreach.

Expansion itself is somewhat complicated since  the objective criteria and guidelines have been just formulated and consensus achieved. The Indian PM also supported expansion along with others.  It is a given that expansion is a natural progression given the attractiveness of the BRICS. There might be phased additions with shortlists ready at hand. But expansion must not undermine the collaborative spirit of the Organisation due to geopolitical aspirations of some countries who would wish to only use it to counter the western hegemony.

In fact its non-western approaches especially sensitivity, equality and respect  towards the developing countries of the Global South are generally held in high esteem. Moreover, the Global Churn and crisis of confidence in the bipolar and unipolar power projections and quest for genuine multilateralism, multi alignments and multiple choices to exercise their foreign policy objectives add to its heft. 

Strategic autonomy is the core and underlying driver for many aspirants. Hence one is witnessing an exceptional interest of Middle Powers across  continents in BRICS, which accounts for 42 percent of the global population and more than a quarter of global GDP. However, for the oil rich countries India and China are also their major markets let alone tremendous human resource and youth dividend. One of the downsides is of course the low intra-BRICS trade of just about 6 percent of their total which could also be addressed over time.

Chinese proposal to have a BRICS-FTA is couched in its BRI (Belt and Road) labyrinthine hence progress is stunted. However, BRICS and AfCFTA (African Continental Free Trade agreement) might take off faster. Several other initiatives were launched  i.e. AI driven industrialisation and for security of health including nuclear medicine.

There have been talks of a BRICS currency since the weaponisation of the liberal financial instruments controlled by the US in the wake of unilateral sanctions and Russia-Ukraine war. But it’s premature and was not on the agenda. Incidentally the currencies of all BRICS countries start with ‘R’. However the renewed emphasis is on usage of national currencies and payment mechanisms for the trade and other transactions within BRICS and outside. Moreover, the New Development Bank (NDB) is also looking for recapitalisation which could be done by the new rich members from the Gulf.

They could even join the Bank without being a part of the BRICS like UAE and Mexico and be a part of an alternate financial institution geared to funding projects in developing countries. It has already extended $33 billion in loans and project assistance. BRICS has weathered many a crisis and is catching up fast with  G7’s combined economic heft and surpasses in market size and youth dividend as the economic pivot sharply veers towards the South. The Summit agreed to task the BRICS finance ministers and Central Bank governors to consider the issue of local currencies, payment instruments and platforms and report back to the leaders by the next summit.

Over time the BRICS has expanded its remit to include global and regional challenges from counter terrorism to climate change to sustainable trade, energy security, investment and green development within an equitable matrix. Africa is an important partner for India and others. At the same time  BRICS faces its own contradictions let alone external challenges. China’s hegemonistic approaches and lack of sensitivity to India’s concerns have created  mistrust and can be inimical to various important organisations like BRICS, SCO and even G20 which India is chairing. Could the bilateral context give way to multilateral efforts. Hopefully the recent meeting of PM Modi and President Xi Jinping in Johannesburg will ease the tensions and ‘competition with cooperation‘ paradigm will take recourse.

India has also developed BRICS counter terrorism strategy even as occasional Chinese protection of dreaded Pakistan based terrorists undermines the very basis for evolving a comprehensive BRICS strategy in this regard. Moreover, Russia-Ukraine war has also impacted the Global South most as far as food, fuel and fertilisers are concerned even as president Putin claimed that he wants war to end while asserting that ‘ The irreversible objective process of de-dollarisation has begun’.

South Africa and China both separately tried to bring the warring sides together but to no avail as of now. PM Modi has also spoken to both President Putin and Zelensky many times to return to dialogue and diplomacy. Ensuring uninterrupted depoliticized global and value supply chains remain an Indian priority be it at the BRICS or at the G20. President Putin, an initiator of the BRICS and several of its initiatives could not even attend personally due to an ICC warrant against him and his preoccupation with the ongoing conflict. He, however, assured Africa of a reliable  supply of food to the continent.

President Xi Jinping also urged that BRICS nations should expand political and security cooperation to uphold peace and tranquillity throughout the world as the geopolitical situation was getting “intense”. While expressing concerns over the conflict and appreciating the efforts to ease the crisis the leaders reiterated in the Declaration  that “We recall our national positions concerning the conflict in and around Ukraine as expressed at the appropriate fora, including the UN Security Council and UN General Assembly.” As Russia took the baton for the next presidency.

Again the Democratisation and reforms of multilateral organisations like UNSC, WTO, WHO and Bretton Woods institutions remain on the priority agenda of the BRICS. Even there, especially for the UNSC expansion China is against Indian claims and merely acknowledges Indian aspirations defying the losing relevance of the UN Organisation itself due to the prevailing myopic geo-political considerations. The Johannesburg declaration did commit all members to support reforms of multilateral institutions  which is a step forward. But, whatever the statements or overt intent might indicate the taste of the pudding is in eating. Unfortunately, so far that remains sour.

The Johannesburg Declaration and discussions  have incorporated  many ponderable and actionable sectors and areas which will have to be rigorously pursued for the welfare of the Global south and for the sustenance of the BRICS itself.

BRICS has to break many barriers through a consensus driven approach by all members with mutual respect and regard for the sensitivities of each one. This could even transform it into a Global South driven new G20. PM Modi expressed hope that “BRICS will be Breaking Barriers, Revitalising Economies, Inspiring Innovations, Creating Opportunities and Shaping Futures.” To carry the broader objectives forward, he will be welcoming several of these leaders next month at the G20 Summit. 

Moreover, with the increasing economic heft of the BRICS, the non-western model need not necessarily be anti-western. Amen.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

World View | B20 India 2023— this is why unlocking Africa’s agricultural abundance is crucial

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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A report published in 2022 by researchers at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) suggests that by 2075, the African continent will be able to produce enough food to feed only about 1.35 billion people — at a time when the continent’s population is expected to surpass 3 billion.

Also, a 2014 publication in the United Nations’ Africa Renewal magazine indicated similar trends, suggesting that the continent would only be able to produce about 13 percent of its food needs by 2050, if the fragilities associated with food systems were to persist. Today, over 250 million people across the continent face hunger, on account of persistent food insecurity which is further exacerbated by multiple factors including climate incidents.

In addition, structural transformation needs to be catalysed through a focus on agro-industrialisation, transitioning broader food systems towards those that are more industrialised and consolidated. This transition is characterised by the consolidation of value chains through a focus on creating larger-scale and more input-intensive farms, modern processing facilities with best-in-class infrastructure and formalisation of food markets, thus allowing the workforce to transition to higher reward sectors.

Today, while over 50 percent of the African workforce is directly employed in agriculture, about 70 percent of the population directly or indirectly relies on it. While nations across Africa have made considerable progress over recent decades in improving the performance of their agri-sectors, the risk of population growth outpacing progress continues to prevail.

The continent imports over 80 percent of its food, with the annual import bill expected to surpass USD 100 billion, post 2025 as per the World Bank. Moreover, about 60 percent of farmers on the continent are subsistence smallholders, i.e., they cultivate solely for personal consumption and have almost no access to finance and other key inputs like fertilisers. As a result, agricultural yield levels in Africa are amongst the lowest in the world and have a trickling effect on poverty and nutrition. 

These trends persist despite the continent’s immense agricultural potential. Africa has over 65 percent of the world’s remaining uncultivated arable land, plentiful freshwater to meet agricultural needs, over 300 days of rich sunshine each year, and a landscape gifted with abundantly fertile soil.

In 2003, the AU and New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) founded the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), setting targets to transform the agriculture and food systems value chain through dedicated focus and public investment. These commitments were further strengthened through the 2014 Malabo declaration — all steps in the right direction. With the right support and focus, the continent has the potential to not only adequately feed itself but become the ‘breadbasket of the world.’

Today, Africa is where many developed economies were about 50 years ago — with average cereal yield levels below 2 tons per hectare and a high proportion of population engaged in agriculture. Currently, developed nations such as the United States and across Europe, have yield levels in the range of 6-9 tons per hectare, while the global average stands at around 4 tonnes. This indicates that Africa has much potential to transform its agricultural systems through focusing on improving productivity, without compromising on the environment by having to convert natural wildlife habitats into agricultural land.

However, with the 2030 target for achievement of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) approaching, acceleration of growth and change has become crucial. Fortunately, the world today has the benefit of unprecedented innovation, with modern technologies available across sectors and use cases.

Africa can leverage its growing visibility on forums of global governance like the G20 to highlight the need and benefits of initiatives like technology transfer programmes — bringing global innovation to the continent. Private greenfield investment in the sector needs to be catalysed, enabling High Yield, Resilient & Adaptive Practices (HYRAP), mechanisation, and tech-driven solutions to penetrate traditional agricultural practices. Structural transformation needs to be catalysed through a focus on agro-industrialisation, transitioning broader food systems towards the ‘industrialised and consolidated’ archetype.

This transition is characterised by the consolidation of value chains through a focus on creating large-scale and input-intensive farms, enabling modern processing facilities with best-in-class infrastructure and formalisation of food markets ultimately facilitating direct access to global value chains and international markets.

Lastly, African nations need to hold themselves true to agreed CAADP spending targets, at 10 percent of all public expenditure — with an adequate split between investment expenditure (such as on storage and irrigation infrastructure) and recurring expenses (primarily subsidies). This will not only help bridge the investment gap but will also help attract private, philanthropic, and development capital from across the world into agriculture initiatives through innovative financing means such as blended finance and low-cost capital.

India’s 2023 G20 Presidency has also marked the first edition of a dedicated action council on African Economic Integration within the B20 engagement group. Driven by the in depth on-ground understanding and expertise of business leaders across Africa and beyond, the Action Council aims to make practical and actionable recommendations to the G20 leaders across identified areas of priority for the continent.

The forum has identified agriculture as one of the top priorities for addressal and its recommendations would go a long way in bringing global finance and best practices to Africa across sectors, especially agriculture. In the fertile fields of Africa, the seeds of agricultural prosperity are sown to cultivate not just sustenance, but economic empowerment for the continent’s future.

—The authors,Tolu Oyekan, Zoe Karl-Waithaka and Chris Mitchell, are  Managing Directors and Partners at BCG Africa. The views expressed in the article are their personal.    

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Joe Biden heads to battleground Wisconsin to talk about the economy a week before GOP debate

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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In a show of preemptive counterprogramming, US President Joe Biden will on Tuesday travel to Wisconsin to highlight his economic policies in a state critical to his reelection fortunes, just a week before Republicans descend on Milwaukee for the party’s first presidential debate of the 2024 campaign.

His trip comes on the eve of the anniversary of the Inflation Reduction Act, a major economic legislation that he signed into law with great ceremony — although polls show most people know little about it or what it does.

Wisconsin is among the handful of critical states where Biden needs to convince voters that his policies are having a positive impact on their lives, and he is expected to visit frequently to make his case.

Biden plans to tour a clean energy manufacturing firm in Milwaukee to talk up provisions of the law that spends hundreds of millions of dollars to boost domestic manufacturing and clean energy, lower health care costs and crack down on wealthy tax cheats.

Administration officials say the trip is meant to recognize the effects of the law, which passed Congress on party-line votes.

“The president and his team are excited to bring that message to the American people throughout the week,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Monday.

Critics of the legislation say provisions of the law could end up increasing inflation. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said during a virtual Peterson Institute for International Economics event in July that while he supported the IRA, the Biden administration’s overall economic agenda is “increasingly dangerous.”

“I am profoundly concerned by the doctrine of manufacturing-centred economic nationalism that is increasingly being put forth as a general principle to guide policy,” Summers said.

Vice President Kamala Harris and top Cabinet officials will be fanning out across the country this week to talk about the Inflation Reduction Act and its provisions. Biden has scheduled an anniversary event at the White House on Wednesday.

The president’s stop in Wisconsin comes shortly before Republicans hold their first presidential primary debate in Milwaukee on August 23. Former US President Donald Trump — the leading Republican candidate in polls so far — has yet to say whether he will boycott or hold a competing event.

Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, said the trip could help Biden win support from independents, who make up about 10% of voters in the state.

“What he needs to do is get independents in the state to like him a bit better,” Franklin said. “Coming and talking about his achievements, about factories that are working with American jobs — all of that is a good reason to come to speak to those folks in the state who are not partisans.”

“Because Democrats are already behind him,” Franklin said, and “Republicans are almost certainly not going to cross over.”

Democratic gains helped decide a critical state Supreme Court race this spring that moved Wisconsin’s highest court under liberal control for the first time in 15 years.

Republicans, though, will compete aggressively in the state, selecting Milwaukee as the site of their 2024 national nominating convention.

The 2020 Democratic convention was supposed to be held in Milwaukee, too, but it largely unfolded virtually because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Biden is one of a string of administration officials making stops across the U.S. this week to promote the legislation’s anniversary.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday spoke in Las Vegas at an International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers union hall about “the early results of bold federal action through the IRA” and the administration’s climate agenda.

“The IRA is driving economic growth, expanding economic opportunity and bolstering our resilience,” she said.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Zoomed Out | Argentinian economic crisis rooted in fascination for cash and runaway inflation

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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In Argentina, inflation touched more than 100 percent mark in February this year after nearly three decades, driving down the exchange rate of its currency Peso to 2 per 1000 US dollars, the currency, most Argentines prefer to stock up including for payment for properties. Economic crisis is not new to Argentina, with their people inured to 30 percent inflation at best of times.

The 2001 blunder consisting in confiscation of bank deposits to tie over the economic crisis disenchanted its people from bank deposits. When an economy is cash-driven and the central bank merrily goes on printing currency notes not represented by real economic growth, the bottom line is stagflation. When prices surge relentlessly, economists call the phenomenon, the unanchored expectations when people shop for goods to buy the cheapest in the circumstances and stock up in the knowledge tomorrow could be another day in the inflation-ravaged market where currency value depreciates by the hour.

In Zimbabwe this happened in 2008 when a sausage sandwich sold for 30 million Zimbabwe dollars, or about $1.25. The problem was that Zimbabwe’s skyrocketing inflation, running at more than 100,000 percent a year. A 30-pound bag of potatoes cost 90 million in the first week of March 2008 in Zimbabwe. A few months down when things worsened that same bag costs 160 million. Small wonder, driven to the wall, the government abandoned its own currency and embraced the greenback or the US dollar.

While Argentina hasn’t yet officially switched to the greenback, people have been keeping their wealth in US dollars (often under mattresses and pillows) reflecting their own lack of faith in the domestic currency and greater faith in the greenback perceived to be the only international currency so much so that Argentina is believed to be hoarding and accumulating the largest amount of greenback! But even this hoard has lost its sheen with the unofficial market for currency (officially the Peso is pegged to the US dollar) steadily hammering the Peso vis-à-vis the greenback.

The 2019 Covid pandemic, followed by the Ukraine war has been impacting the entire world negatively but for Argentina the unprecedented drought has spelled disaster, hitting its exports of soy, wheat and corn. Argentina is the world’s topexporter of processed soy and one of the leading exporters of corn but the worst drought in over 60 years has damaged the crops, thereby hitting the imports. The worst drought is attributed to climate change on which of course Argentine rulers have no hold.

People are making a beeline for citizenship of Spain, Italy and Australia like never before highlighting the fact that patience has run its course. Successive IMF bailouts have done little to shore up the sagging fortunes of the South American nation whose only claim to fame is the last world cup football victory in 2022. Remember post great depression of 1930, Argentina was among the first ten economies of the world.

Also Read: Crisis-hit Sri Lanka strikes preliminary loan pact with IMF

In fact, Argentina is struggling to meet the dreaded IMF conditions — the strings its bailout packages come with including hike in lending rates now standing at a whopping 78 percent that is a sure- shot dampener for growth, axing jobs in the government sector, devaluation and reining in fiscal deficit that is easier said than done in an election year —attached to the last tranche of a staggering US$44 billion loan in 2022.

Incidentally this loan was to repay the last loan given by IMF in 2018 of the order of $57 billion, in a manner of “evergreening” that many Indian banks are accused of to cosset and camouflage their NPA.

The stiff conditions of IMF loans has prompted the nation to toy with the idea of seeking the membership of BRICS, the new kids on the developmental bloc, and seek bailout from its fledgling New Development Bank (NDB) rather than from the IMF.

But BRICS obviously won’t like to be singed by association with a nation that lurches from one crisis to another. In any case NDB has but a small war chest of just $12 billion barely enough to scratch the surface of its own existing members’ problems! It has another unsavoury reputation to live down—fickle mindedness. In 1973 Argentina joined the non-aligned movement only to desert it in 1991. Likewise, it deserted the South American Nations in 2019.

Also Read: Pakistan crisis | Caught between economic and political turmoil, options in front of the Shahbaz Sharif govt

Argentina has been in the dubious company of Pakistan, Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka where protests spilled into streets a few months ago. In contrast, Argentines inured as they are to inflation and recession have been grinning and bearing stoically. Nearly 40 percent of Argentines live in poverty today, compared to about 25 percent at the start of the current round of crisis in 2018.

It is a matter of cold comfort that the current inflation is nowhere near the 1989-91 when it breached the 3000 percent mark annually! Another cold comfort is that it has fared much better than Zimbabwe, Lebanon, Venezuela and Syria in the dubious race for inflation.

The saga of Argentinian economic crisis has been mindless printing of Peso, IMF bailouts and sale of government bonds (only to default in servicing them) to pay off government employees.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Nepal’s National Assembly chairman visits Beijing to hold talks with China’s top legislator

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Nepal’s National Assembly Chairman Ganesh Prasad Timilsina on Monday held talks with China’s top legislator Zhao Leji in Beijing and the two sides agreed to advance cooperation between the legislative bodies of the two countries.

Timilsina, who is leading a nine-member Nepalese delegation, and Zhao during their meeting at the Great Hall of People exchanged views on matters of mutual interest, according to a press release issued by the Nepalese Embassy in Beijing.

“Both sides appreciated the ever-growing bilateral relations between Nepal and China based on the principles of peaceful coexistence, mutual trust and mutual understanding,” it said.

The two sides expressed commitment to further strengthen the parliamentary cooperation between the National Legislatures of the two countries, it added.

They reviewed the gamut of cooperation in the areas of parliamentary friendship, economic development and people-to-people relations, according to the statement.

“Both sides agreed to further work together to promote economic development in the fields of trade, energy, air connectivity, infrastructure, power grid and border points,” the release said.

In addition, the two sides stressed facilitating the export of Nepali products, it added.

“The Chinese side also confirmed the commencement of the first direct chartered flight between Pokhara city of Nepal and Chengdu city of China on June 21 which would pave the way for further flights,” it said.

ALSO READ: Royal Enfield begins operations of Nepal local assembly unit

Before the meeting, the Nepalese delegation visited Baidu Group, one of the top Chinese technological companies. At a brief interaction held at the State Grid Corporation, the importance of constructing transmission lines as a means to foster infrastructure development was discussed, the release added.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

New Pakistan budget will do little to reduce IMF concerns, say experts

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Pakistan’s efforts to unlock access to the already agreed USD 6.5 billion loan package with IMF a quagmire after the cash-strapped country unveiled a subsidy and development-packed budget of Rs 14.46 trillion which experts say will do little to allay the concerns of the global lender.

The Pakistan government on Friday unveiled a Rs 14.4 trillion budget for 2023-24 as it battled to fend off a looming default due to shrinking foreign reserves. The government claims to have shared the budget with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The budget needs to satisfy the IMF to secure the release of more bailout money for the cash-strapped Pakistan.

Dawn reported from Washington that the budget will do little to allay the IMF’s concerns and makes it more difficult for Pakistan to complete the pending ninth and 10th reviews of the current bailout package.

Since 1958, Pakistan has signed 22 IMF programmes but failed to complete all, barring the 2013-16 facility, thanks to nearly 18 waivers from the global lender.

Islamabad signed the current 36-month USD 6 billion Extended Fund Facility in July 2019, which, on request of the then-finance minister, Miftah Ismail, was extended by the IMF by nine months to June 30, 2023, and its size increased to USD 6.5 billion.

Over the past almost four years, the programme has been derailed at least four times, including on two occasions during the tenure of the current coalition government, and the failure to complete it will further widen the trust deficit between the country and the financial world.

The paper reported that a Washington-based economist Uzair Younus shared this view which is backed by many in the US capital about how the budget impacts Pakistan’s chances of receiving the remaining two tranches from the IMF and of getting a new assistance package.

Even those in the IMF and the World Bank share these sentiments, although no official is willing to offer on-the-record comments because of the sensitivity of the issue, the paper reported.

“Economic stability is linked to political stability,” said an official when asked if the 2023-24 budget allays IMF’s concerns about the Pakistani economy.

“Forget about the two tranches. Focus on long-term reforms that can get you future (IMF) programmes,” said another. “They need to stop experimenting and (start working to) bring stability.” The sources who spoke to Dawn explained that the current government completes its tenure in about 60 days and then there will be a new, interim government for 90 days. If a financial institution, such as the IMF, enters into a programme with Pakistan, it will require at least a year’s guarantee to implement the reforms the two sides agree on.

“How can a government that is there for 60 to 90 days give this guarantee?” one source asked.

That’s why, the sources explained, the IMF, or any other lending agency, would not enter into a long-term programme with Pakistan without a stable government.

The sources described the 53 per cent higher expenditure, as explained in Pakistan’s federal budget presented last week, as very large. “The deficit is rising, the economy in a state of shock,” one source said.

A source explained that to curb the balance-of-payments problems, Pakistan took some “draconian measures”, which are having a negative impact on the growth. “So, the question is, how will Pakistan achieve 3.5 per cent growth, as the budget suggests?” A former IMF official claimed that the “current budget is eye-wash before elections. They will bring a mini-budget soon after the elections”.

Another source claimed that the government was not even certain about the next elections.

“If they are going to elections, how will they maintain budget discipline? How do we have guarantees that you will implement the pledges you make?” the source asked. “There is no development growth in this budget to get the economy back on track. There are no structural reforms that the IMF asked for.” Another source explained that Pakistan’s current programme with the IMF expires on June 30. So, the IMF board has less than 20 days to meet and decide how and when to release the remaining funds to Pakistan.

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The member countries on the IMF board require the Fund’s staff to give them enough time to consult their capitals before agreeing or disagreeing with the proposals sent by the country seeking assistance.

According to the source, by the time this entire process was complete, Pakistan could hardly have a week or so to implement the reforms it suggested for getting the tranches. “How will Pakistan do that?” the source asked.

“The IMF rules require that the documents for consideration must be circulated among the board members two weeks before the meeting. How would this requirement be met?” Pakistan, currently in the throes of a major political as well as economic crisis, is grappling with high external debt, a weak local currency and dwindling foreign exchange reserves.

The World Bank, its latest Global Economic Prospects report, has projected Pakistan’s economy to grow by two per cent in the next fiscal, lower than the 3.5 per cent target set by the country’s top economic body, saying the lasting effects of the August 2022 floods, along with policy uncertainty and limited foreign exchange resources have depressed activity in the country.

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World Day Against Child Labour | Here’s why the world must focus on social justice and poverty alleviation on priority

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Child labour is often defined as work that deprives children of their childhood, their potential and dignity, and that is harmful to their physical and mental development.  It is a violation of children’s rights as the work can harm them mentally or physically, expose them to hazardous situations or stop them from going to school.

But unfortunately, the world’s progress has decreased in the last few years to eradicate child labour in all forms. The COVID-19 crisis further eroded the gains that had been made in the past. If this trend continues, we will fall far behind on the collective commitment to end child labour by 2025.

The continuing persistence of child labour and exploitation poses a threat to national economies and has severe negative short and long term consequences for children such as denial of education and undermining physical and mental health.

But extensive evidence shows that child sensitive social protection reduces poverty while also contributing to income security in households, with broader significance for child health, education and food security and protection.

Also Read: World Day Against Child Labour: History, significance, and theme

Observed on June 12th, World Day Against Child Labour is intended to serve as a catalyst for the growing worldwide movement against child labour. The theme for 2023 is ‘Social Justice for All. End Child Labour.

Challenging problem

Since 2000, for nearly two decades, the world made a steady progress in reducing child labour. But over the past few years, this has been reduced because of conflicts and the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic growth has been not robust and this has plunged many families into poverty which in turn has pushed children into hazardous work.

 According to a report of UNICEF—Child Labour: Global estimates 2020, trends and the road forward–the latest global estimates indicate that the number of children in child labour has risen to 160 million worldwide – an increase of 8.4 million children in the last four years. The report warns that global progress to end child labour has stalled for the first time in 20 years.

The number of children aged 5 to 17 years in hazardous work–-defined as work that is likely to harm their health, safety or morals – has risen by 6.5 million to 79 million since 2016. In sub-Saharan Africa, population growth, extreme poverty, and inadequate social protection measures have led to an additional 16.6 million children in child labour over the past four years. 

According to the 2020 estimate of International Labour Organisation (ILO), 160 million children are in child labour and almost half of them work in hazardous areas. This means that roughly one out of ten children in the world are in child labour and around one out of 20 in hazardous child labour. While the percentage of children in child labour is highest in low-income countries, their numbers are actually greater in middle-income countries. About 9 percent of all children in lower-middle-income countries, and 7 percent of all children in upper-middle-income countries, are in child labour.

Absence of adequate data

Lack of proper government survey on child labour has posed another  challenge. The educational institutions should also be revamped to address to all the structural flaws. The 2011 census indicates that India has 10.1 million children who are employed as labourers, while an additional 42.7 million children are unschooled. This number must have grown since the last census.

Despite the enactment of the Child Labour (Prohibition and Regulation) Act in 1986 and 2016 and the Right to Education (2009), children in India continue to remain extremely vulnerable to slavery, doing menial jobs which in turn affects the quality of human capital. human trafficking, illiteracy, poor physical and mental health experiencing a failed childhood that compromises the future quality of human capital.

Poverty has been the greatest force driving children into the workplace. Local traditions also play a pivotal role in many communities. Poor educational facilities also push children into doing work at an early age. Education is a proven strategy for reducing child labour. Lack of access to education keeps the cycle of exploitation, illiteracy and poverty going – limiting future options and forcing children to accept low-wage work.

What should be done?

Children in India are engaged in many industries which includes brick kilns, carpet weaving, food and restaurant service, agriculture, mining and fisheries. Poverty, lack of better study and work opportunities, migration are some of the main causes for child labour in India. Social inequalities especially in rural areas have made the situation worse.

The pandemic has brought into focus the multiple deprivations many children face. It has further aggravated the problems of child labour. Pandemic related closures of schools and childcare services, and overburdened health systems, left many children without key school, health, nutrition and sanitation services. The pandemic has also brought with it many structural inequalities and the persistence of high levels of child poverty.

The government has to strengthen efforts to ensure adequate investment in social protection for children, essentially through child benefits to support families. This will ensure sustainable development and social justice. The policymakers and the stakeholders should take decisive steps to attain universal social protection for all children.  There is a need to have social protection systems that are gender-responsive and inclusive to address inequities and deliver better results for child labour.

The stakeholders should work towards securing sustainable financing for social protection systems by mobilising domestic resources and increasing budget allocation for children. The government should ensure that the registration of all child births are done and there should be a way to track the child’s progress. There should be continuous dialogue among governments, employers’ organisations and workers’ organisations for developing appropriate policies for addressing child labour and the various challenges.

World scenario 

According to a report released by the ILO and UNICEF, there are 2.4 billion children in the world who need adequate social protection. Children are still twice as likely as adults to live in poverty. Despite its immediate and long-term impacts, approximately 1.5 billion children below the age of 15 years currently have no access to social protection and, alarmingly, progress in increasing effective coverage globally has stalled since 2016.

The policymakers and the stakeholders should take decisive steps to attain universal social protection for all children.  There is a need to have social protection systems that are gender-responsive and inclusive to address inequities and deliver better results for child labour. There is a need for securing sustainable financing for social protection systems by mobilising domestic resources and increasing budget allocation for children.

While the stakeholders, including governments and other organisations  should extend social protection for children and their families. This must include free and good quality schooling at least up to the minimum age for employment. Registration of all child births are done and there should be a way to track the child’s progress. There should also be continuous dialogue among governments, employers’ organisations and workers’ organisations for developing appropriate policies for addressing child labour and the challenges.

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Biden and Sunak to discuss Ukraine and economic security in British leader’s first White House visit

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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President Joe Biden is welcoming Prime Minister Rishi Sunak for wide-ranging talks on Thursday as the British leader makes his first White House visit as premier.

The leaders’ Oval Office talks are expected to cover the war in Ukraine, China, economic security, international cooperation on regulating the growing field of artificial intelligence, and more.

Biden and Sunak have already had four face-to-face meetings since Sunak became prime minister in October, but the talks in Washington will offer the two leaders a chance for their most sustained interaction to date.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the 15-month-old Russian invasion of Ukraine will be “top of mind.” The US and UK are the two biggest donors to the Ukraine war effort and play a central role in a long-term effort announced last month to train, and eventually equip, Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets.

Sunak also is looking to make the case to Biden for UK Defence Minister Ben Wallace to succeed outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who is set to end his term leading the 31-member alliance in September.

Stoltenberg is slated to meet with Biden in Washington on Monday, and leaders from the alliance are set to gather in Lithuania on July 11-12 for their annual summit.

“The two leaders will review a range of global issues including our economic partnership or shared support of Ukraine as it defends itself against Russia’s war of aggression, as well as further action to accelerate the clean energy transition,” Jean-Pierre said.

“The president and the prime minister will also discuss the joint US-UK leadership on critical emerging technologies as well as our work to strengthen our economic security.” Sunak is keen to make the UK a key player in artificial intelligence, and announced that his government will gather politicians, scientists and tech executives for a summit on AI safety in the fall.

He said it was vital to ensure that “paradigm-shifting new technologies” are harnessed for the good of humanity.

“No one country can do this alone,” Sunak said. “This is going to take a global effort.” Sunak’s visit comes as US and British intelligence officials are still trying to sort out blame for the breaching of a major dam in southern Ukraine, which sent floodwaters gushing through towns and over farmland. Neither Washington nor London has officially accused Russia of blowing up the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam.

Sunak said Wednesday that UK intelligence services are still assessing the evidence, but “if it does prove to be intentional, it will represent a new low … an appalling barbarism on Russia’s part.” “Russia throughout this war has used as a deliberate active strategy to target civilian infrastructure,” he told broadcaster ITV in Washington.

The two sides are hoping to demonstrate that the US-UK relationship remains as strong as ever despite recent political and economic upheaval in the UK Sunak is one of three British prime ministers Biden has dealt with since taking office in 2021, and the administrations have had differences over Brexit and its impact on Northern Ireland.

There also have been some awkward moments between the two leaders in the early going.

Biden, at a White House celebration in October to mark the Hindu holiday of Diwali, noted the elevation of Sunak, who is the UK’s first leader of colour and the first Hindu to serve in the role, as a “groundbreaking milestone” but he badly mangled the pronunciation of Sunak’s name.

At a March meeting in San Diego with Sunak and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to announce plans to sell Australia nuclear-powered attack submarines, Biden jokingly told Sunak “maybe you can invite me to your home in California.” The lighthearted aside resurrected old political baggage for Sunak, whose political aspirations briefly dimmed as he faced an ethics investigation last year after it emerged that he had possessed a US green card two years after being appointed chancellor of the exchequer. Sunak, a former hedge fund manager with an MBA from Stanford University, and his wife own a home in California.

Nonetheless, there’s a sense in the Biden administration that the US-UK relationship is back on more stable footing after the sometimes choppy tenure of Boris Johnson and the 45-day premiership of Liz Truss.

“I think there’s a sense of relief to some degree, not just in the White House, but throughout Washington, that the Sunak government has been very pragmatic and maintained the UK’s robust commitment to Ukraine and to increasing defence spending,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. He added that with Sunak, there’s also been “somewhat of a return to pragmatism” on economic issues and relations with the European Union post-Brexit.

Sunak opened his two-day Washington visit on Wednesday by laying a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier at Arlington National Cemetery.

He met with key congressional leaders, including Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, as well as business leaders. He also attended a Washington Nationals baseball game.

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Shortly before departing for Washington, Sunak announced that several US companies were making $USD 17 billion (£14 billion) in new economic investments in the UK.

The chairs of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China, Republican Rep. Chris Smith and Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley, on Wednesday wrote to Sunak asking him to work with the Biden administration on Hong Kong policy and push for the release of jailed media tycoon Jimmy Lai and other activists.

Lai’s son, Sebastien Lai, last month in testimony before the US committee expressed disappointment that the UK had not condemned his father’s detention publicly and had not taken a stronger stance in advocating for his release. The elder Lai founded the now shut pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily and faces charges under Hong Kong’s security law and a colonial-era sedition law.

“A robust stance by the UK government is critically important, given your oversight of the Sino-British Declaration and the millions of Hong Kongers who hold British citizenship or British National (Overseas) passports,” the lawmakers wrote.

“The erosion of Hong Kong’s promised autonomy and the dismantling of a free press and the rule of law are issues of global concern.”

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Pope Francis to have intestinal surgery under general anaesthesia

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Pope Francis was admitted to the hospital for intestinal surgery Wednesday, the latest malady to befall the 86-year-old pontiff who had part of his colon removed two years ago.

Francis was expected to be put under general anaesthesia for the procedure and remain at Rome’s Gemelli hospital for several days, the Vatican said.

The pope was suffering from a “recurrent, painful and worsening” hernia that formed over a previous scar, presumably from his 2021 colon surgery. Experts said the formation of the hernia, called a laparocele, is a known complication from intestinal surgery.

He will undergo open abdominal surgery, which can help a surgeon both diagnose and treat issues. The fact that he was going back for surgery suggested he had little choice but to treat the intestinal issue, especially given the rigorous upcoming travel schedule this summer.

“When the intestines are trapped, the blood supply to the bowel is compromised and if you don’t take care of it, the bowel will die and you will have gangrenous intestines,” said Dr Walter Longo, chief of colon and rectal surgery at Yale University School of Medicine.

He said Francis should be OK after a few weeks of recovery, but he noted that the aging pope is already frail and not in great shape. “There’s the risk of going through surgery, operating on a fragile individual, but if he can get through it, he will be fine,” he said.

Francis remains in charge of the Vatican and the 1.3-billion strong Catholic Church, even while unconscious and in the hospital, according to canon law.

In July 2021, Francis spent 10 days at Gemelli to remove 33 centimetres (13 inches) of his large intestine. He had suffered what the Vatican said was a severe inflammation and narrowing of the colon. In an interview with AP in January, Francis said the diverticulosis, or bulges in his intestinal wall, that had prompted the 2021 surgery, had returned.

After the 2021 surgery, Francis lamented that he hadn’t responded well to the general anaesthetic used in the longer-than-expected procedure. That reaction in part explained his refusal to have surgery to repair strained knee ligaments that have forced him to use a wheelchair and walker for over a year.

The Argentine pope had part of one lung removed when he was a young man. He also suffers from sciatica nerve pain. In late March, Francis spent three days at Gemelli for an acute case of bronchitis, during which he was treated with intravenous antibiotics. He emerged April 1 saying “Still alive!” After celebrating his weekly general audience, the pope was driven in his Fiat 500 out of the Vatican shortly after 11 am and arrived at the Gemelli some 20 minutes later, escorted by police.

“The stay at the health facility will last several days to allow for the normal post-operative course and full functional recovery,” the Vatican said in a statement. An update was not expected until after the procedure.

Francis initially went to the Gemelli on Tuesday for what the Vatican said were medical tests. It revealed no details at the time.

The pope had appeared in good form Wednesday morning at his audience in St Peter’s Square, zipping around the square in his popemobile greeting the faithful. He also had two meetings beforehand, the Vatican said.

Francis has had a packed schedule of late, with multiple audiences each day. The Vatican has recently confirmed a travel-filled August, when the Holy See and Italy are usually on vacation, with a four-day visit to Portugal the first week of August and a similarly long trip to Mongolia starting August 31.

In a sign that the trips were very much on, the Vatican on Tuesday released the planned itinerary for Francis’ visit to Portugal for World Youth Day events from August 2-6.

The itinerary confirms a typically busy schedule that includes all the protocol meetings of an official state visit plus multiple events with young people and a day trip to the Marian shrine at Fatima.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow