Author: Sonal Bhutra

IGL, MGL, Gujarat Gas in focus: Gas regulator says ‘will not intervene in pricing’

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The city gas distribution space is abuzz, and not for the best reasons. The three companies, IGL, MGL and Gujarat Gas have cut prices. IGL and MGL for the CNG segment and Gujarat Gas for the industrial segment and all of them cited lower natural gas prices as the reason for this price cut.

But price cuts are the usual course of business, why did the stocks fall so much? This is because, at the same time, the oil minister in a press conference said that gas sector reforms have not reached the end consumers at a time when the government is focusing on affordable gas prices, and added that they are worried about high profits earned by these companies and the government is ready to take steps with respect to pricing and ensure compliance by the companies.

That is not it, the PNGRB also uploaded a document on Wednesday (March 6) that indicated that MGL’s exclusivity in the Mumbai region ended in 2021, which means they will not have exclusive rights to this region when it comes to CNG sales.

Before we look at the impact, let’s try and understand what kind of margins these companies are making.

In Q3, MGL made the highest EBITDA in the space at ₹13.3, followed by IGL at ₹7.2 and then Gujarat Gas at ₹4.8. Of course, MGL and IGL have the highest exposure to CNG space and these have a direct impact on retail consumers. In terms of profits, IGL profit margin for the last four years is 15-16% and for MGL it is at 19-20% in the last two years.

So, what got the Street worried? One, they are worried about the government’s intervention with respect to pricing in the CGD sector, which has been market-driven so far and second, the exclusivity issues for some of these companies which could end soon leading to more competition and fewer volumes. The fear is there would be a hit on both margin and volumes.

We spoke to the PNGRB, the regulator, and they indicated that they received no communication from the ministry regarding curbing CGD pricing and that there is no intention to intervene in regulating or getting into day-to-day activities, and that they are in favour of market freedom.

The normal profit level is 20% in CGD infrastructure and they are not saying CGDs are making super-normal profits. Ideally, a 12-15% profit margin is what seems reasonable and right now companies are making over 20% which they are worried about.

What next? First, the end of exclusivity for CGD companies is still subjudice and a final decision is awaited on this. This can extend by 10-plus years given precedents and could happen for MGL as well. Second, regulating profits for CGDs would mean lower capex in the sector and this would conflict with the government’s goal of expanding the gas economy and infrastructure.

What are brokerages making of this?

Emkay, for instance, says such ministerial statements closer to elections are expected given that petrol and diesel price cuts are also long-awaited. However, pricing freedom should endure and stay linked to market forces and nothing has structurally changed.

Nuvama says that more than half the price cut by MGL is led by easing spot prices and hence CNG is still 50/35% more competitive than petrol/diesel and hence volume boost is likely. The PNGRB stated that MGL’s Mumbai monopoly ended in April 2021 but nothing can move forward till pending court cases are resolved.

ICICI Sec says that, technically, the PNGRB Act does not allow for regulation of end-consumer prices and the signal they are getting from pronouncements may indicate a further lowering of priority gas allocation to the CGDs and this could create margin pressure for CGDs but they are puzzled by the need articulated by the regulator to increase penetration and talk about lower profits at the same time.

And this is what the Street is worried about, regulatory pressure on these companies the way we have seen for OMCs as well. 

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Gujarat Gas hikes industrial gas price to Rs 40.83 per scm

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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State-run Gujarat Gas Limited on Sunday announced a Rs 2.50 price hike in industrial gas — to Rs 40.83 per standard cubic metre (scm) from the current Rs 38.43 per scm, sources told CNBC-TV18. The new price will be effective from Monday, August 21.

This is the first price increase for industrial gas by Gujarat Gas after five consecutive price cuts in 2023. According to sources, the price increase is due to increased spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices.

Earlier this month, Gujarat Gas reported a 43.4 percent year-on-year (YoY) decline in net profit at Rs 215.1 crore for the first quarter of the ongoing fiscal. In its quarterly earnings report, the company said its industrial sales volumes increased to 5.88 mmscmd (million metric scm per day) from 5.36 mmscmd in the preceding quarter — an increase of 10 percent. This was due to softer spot LNG prices, the benefit of which was passed to industrial customers to make natural gas more competitive to alternate fuels, the company had said.

(To be updated)

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Chemical and agrochem firms report weak earnings in first quarter

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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From demand disruptions to dumping from China and inventory unwinding, chemicals, and agrochemical companies, so far in the first quarter of FY24 have flagged off concerns in the industry. There was a hint when global chemical companies started issuing profit warnings and now Indian players have also started echoing the sentiment.

SRF, the chemical giant, reported a decline in its first quarter of FY24 with net profit dropping 41 percent year-on-year to Rs 359.3 crore. The chairman and MD of SRF, Ashish Bharat Ram said there is a lot of inventory unwinding going on globally and this will have some impact on the business in the next couple of quarters.

On the positive side, the longer-term projects remain on track, and we expect to keep our capex momentum intact, Ram said. The company indicated that agrochemical companies are focusing on inventory rationalisation. They are witnessing the rescheduling of purchase orders by some clients.

On fluorochemicals, it said, certain key raw material prices continue to show signs of softening. De-stocking of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) will continue in the short-term and China is dumping products across geographies due to weak local demand.

Atul Ltd reported a 37 percent decline in the first quarter of FY24 profits. The company indicated that numbers were impacted due to lower realisation and weak demand in the global market amid geopolitical disturbances.

Subdued global demand and lower price realisation in the crop protection business resulted in a weak performance in the life science chemicals segments, the company said.

Higher inventory and lower capacity utilisation at the customer end resulted in lower sales and subsequently profitability in the performance and other chemicals segments, Atul noted.

Thirumalai Chemicals, the producer of phthalic anhydride, said the company saw dumping of low quality, low price goods from China in Q1 which led to higher imports in the domestic industry, and hence Q2 will be weak like Q1.

However, the company expects Q3 to see some recovery as it expects some government intervention here. Thirumalai Chemicals saw an 82 percent decline in profit after tax (PAT) in Q1 but saw a quarter-on-quarter recovery.

DCM Shriram, the company that has businesses ranging from chemicals to vinyl, to sugar and seeds attributed the first quarter’s weakness to the chemicals business.

Overall, profits were down 78 percent YoY led by a 90 percent decline in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of the chemicals business. The company said chemicals and vinyl businesses are facing challenges as a result of global disruptions in demand, supply, and costs.

The agrochemical player Sharda Cropchem reported a loss of Rs 89 crore this quarter and said the revenues have de-grown due to lower sales in Europe and NAFTA region and lower volumes in Europe and LATAM regions on account of high inflation, ongoing recession and adverse weather conditions.

The company experienced a significant decrease in product price realisations, especially in the USA as raw material and finished goods sales prices have reduced substantially. However, they said that the situation is not as bad and they expect recovery from Q3 onwards.

Commentaries from other chemical majors will be important to watch as more earnings are reported.

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Explained | The huge interest in India’s renewable hydrogen landscape

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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According to Morgan Stanley, the total addressable market for hydrogen could be worth $19 billion by 2030. This, of course, is the clean part of hydrogen. Let’s split it up further.

This $19 billion market comprises both blue and green hydrogen.

Blue hydrogen is manufactured using methane and steam, which then convert to gray hydrogen — this is the polluting variety hydrogen. So the technique used to make blue and gray hydrogen is the same, but the management of carbon dioxide (CO2) in this case differs. Carbon capture and storage technology is used to capture the CO2 from gray hydrogen, from which blue hydrogen is produced. Many companies are investing in the carbon capture technology in India as well, but it is still in its nascency.

Coming to the buzzword, green hydrogen, it is cleaner because water is broken into hydrogen using renewable sources like solar, wind energy. This is then processed in an electrolsyer, again a space where many Indian companies are investing.

So how will this $19 billion dollar market be split?

According to Morgan Stanley’s estimates, around $200 million will come from the telecom space, while heavy trucks and buses will account for $1 million — this looks small compared to other sectors, but the usage of hydrogen in commercial vehicles (CVs) could take some time to become a bigger opportunity in a short period of time as against city gas distribution companies that will have to blend in green hydrogen, which will be a $1.6 billion market by 2030. The refining sector will see a 25 percent mandatory use, as will fertilizer. This will be between a $6.9 billion to $7.3bn market; steel is a $2.6 billion market for green hydrogen, followed by cement and shipping at $1 million.

Also read: India’s hydrogen market to surge: Morgan Stanley projects $19 billion opportunity by 2030

Now why is this important to stock markets? Because big players have invested in the space.

Reliance Industries Limited will be manufacturing low-cost electrolysers for manufacture of green hydrogen for domestic and global use. The Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) will be venturing into green hydrogen projects and is targeting 5 percent hydrogen produced as green hydrogen by by 2027-28, and 10 percent by 2029-2030.

ONGC has inked a pact with Greenko to spend $6.2 billion on renewables and green hydrogen. BPCL will be setting up a 5MW electrolyser system for green hydrogen manufacturing. GAIL will also set up an electrolyser to produce 4.3MT of hydrogen per day.

NTPC has a target of 5GW capacity in green hydrogen and ammonia business out of its 60 GW green portfolio target by 2032. JSW Energy has contracted India’s largest commercial-scale Green H2 of 3,800 TPA and antique says green Hydrogen manufacturing to act as a sweetener. IGL has signed an MoU with ACME to jointly supply green hydrogen, set up infrastructure. The company says the production of green ammonia from green hydrogen has the potential to be another business vertical for IGL.

Also read: Green Hydrogen Projects: MNRE projects need for 5.5 lakh crore debt-based funding over next 7 years

MGL says it is exploring the green hydrogen space as it could be blended Into CNG as well. L&T has commissioned a green hydrogen plant at Hazira that produces 45kg of green hydrogen daily and is used for captive consumption. HPCL aims for a green hydrogen capacity of 24,000 tonnes a year and increase it gradually.

So, definitely, there a lot of interest in the green hydrogen space, and the market is huge. The current pricing of green hydrogen is $10 per kg and the expectation is that it could go down to $2 per kg by 2030.

In fact, when we talk about the market size, a recent IEA report suggested that a transition to clean energy is a huge economic opportunity, and renewable batteries, green hydrogen, and other clean technologies could  create a market worth up to $80 billion in India by 2030. So if Morgan Stanley says $19 billion could come from hydrogen, ut means there could be 23-24 percent contribution coming in from hydrogen itself!

An interesting space with a lot to track here, and definitely worth putting the spotlight on.

Also read: Government extends transmission fee waiver for green hydrogen plants

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Your piped gas and CNG will cost less now, here is what has changed

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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CNG price in Delhi shall soon be cut from Rs 79.56 per kg to Rs 73.59 and PNG cost shall be lowered to Rs 47.59 from Rs 53.59 per thousand cubic meters. Similarly, Mumbai shall see CNG cost drop to Rs 79 per kg from Rs 87 while PNG shall be priced at Rs 49 per scm, down from Rs 54.

This comes after the government on April 6 approved the Kirit Parikh committee’s recommendation to revise 2014 gas pricing guidelines to provide relief to consumers suffering from the recent surge in global gas prices.

As per Kirit Parikh gas panel’s recommendation, India will lower prices of gas produced from old blocks to $6.50 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) from April 8. The price will apply to industrial buyers and companies in the fertiliser and city gas distribution sectors and will be fixed on a monthly basis.

The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas on Friday issued a notification stating that the domestic natural gas prices for the period of April 8, 2023, to April 30, 2023, have been set at $7.92/mmbtu. While the gas produced by ONGC (Oil and Natural Gas Corporation) and OIL (Oil India Limited) from their nomination fields will have a ceiling of $6.50/mmbtu on a GCV (Gross Calorific Value) basis for the same period. The domestic natural gas price for the period April 1, 2023, to April 7, 2023, was set at $9.16/mmbtu on a GCV basis.

CRISIL Ratings is of the view that city gas distributors could reduce prices of CNG used by vehicles and PNG used by homes, by 9-11 percent, with the government accepting the key recommendations of the Kirit Parikh Committee.

It believes that had the previous pricing regime continued, prices would have likely risen. The revised gas pricing norms would lend greater stability to gas prices for city gas distributors and sustained competitiveness with alternative fuels, thus driving demand and supporting massive capex plans, it said.

Post the notification, Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) announced a reduction in CNG and PNG prices to pass on the benefit of the price cut in the domestic gas cost to its consumers. Accordingly, the price of CNG is reduced by Rs. 8/Kg and Domestic PNG (DPNG) by Rs. 5/SCM in and around Mumbai.

“The reduced MRP of CNG will now be Rs.79.00/Kg and Domestic PNG will be Rs. 49.00/SCM effective from midnight of 07th April 2023/ morning of 08th April 2023,” the company said.

MGL’s CNG offers savings of about 49 percent and 16 percent as compared to petrol and diesel respectively at current price levels in Mumbai. Also, MGL’s Domestic PNG will offer around 21 percent savings as compared to the current price of Domestic LPG.

Let’s understand why piped gas and CNG will cost less now and why and how it all happened

How are gas prices in India calculated?

India imports 50 percent of gas in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for its domestic consumption and the rest is produced by domestic players like ONGC, Oil India, Reliance Industries.

The pricing of a major share of gas supplies in the Indian market is controlled and is driven not by the market but a formula set by a committee.

Also Read: The new caps on input prices for natural gas in India

For the gas domestically produced, gas pricing was divided into APM gas and non APM or free market gas. APM gas pricing was fixed on the basis of a formula — weighted average price of four global benchmarks US Henry hub, Canada based Alberta gas, the UK-based NBP, and Russian gas. This was the case for legacy fields.

The recent highs and lows of gas prices and the impact on India

During COVID-19, gas prices fell globally to multi-year low levels and this led to a fall in domestic prices to as low as $1.79/mmbtu, a negative for producers like ONGC and Oil India. However, this was positive for consuming sectors like city gas distribution companies that produce CNG and PNG which we all use.

This was followed by the Russia Ukraine war. Russia is a big supplier of gas globally and when sanctions were imposed on its exports, gas was not supplied to major consumers. This led to a shortfall in gas supply and ultimately led to record high gas prices globally.

The US and UK witnessed gas prices never seen before. At a point in time, US gas prices almost touched $10/mmbtu and UK gas prices rose 3X from April 2022 to August 2022.

This definitely had an impact on how gas prices are calculated in India. For the October to March 2023 period, gas prices were set at $8.57/mmbtu, an average of global prices. This is the price of the gas used to produce CNG and PNG. The immense cost pressure on city gas distribution companies was then passed on to consumers.

In 2022 itself, CNG prices in Mumbai were hiked from levels of Rs 49.40/kg to Rs 89.50/kg, almost an 80 percent increase. Similar hikes were seen in other regions as well. For industrial customers, like the ceramic industry, cost pressures were so much that they either switched from gas to propane or were forced to shut down the industry as they could not efficiently run their businesses.

Enter Kirit Parekh Committee

The massive increase in gas prices is the reason why the government set up the Kirit Parekh Committee to change the way gas prices are calculated.

The committee proposed fixing a pricing band for gas from legacy fields, which make up two-thirds of all natural gas produced in the country. This would provide a predictable pricing regime for producers and help moderate the prices of CNG and piped cooking gas.

Gas from legacy fields is sold to city gas distributors that raised rates of CNG and piped cooking gas by over 70 percent after prices went up, reflecting a surge in global rates.

Also read: RBI MPC — rate hike pause is a “wait and watch” policy, but positive for bond markets

The panel’s recommendations have been approved and the new gas prices will be priced at 10 percent of the price of the basket of the crude oil that India imports.

This shall be done every month based on crude prices. To ensure that higher crude prices do not lead to higher gas prices, gas price has been capped at $6.5/mmbtu and to ensure that lower crude prices do not impact producers, the floor has been set at $4/mmbtu.

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

MarketBuzz Podcast With Sonal Bhutra: Sensex and Nifty50 likely to open higher today

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Indian equity benchmarks BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50 are likely to start Friday’s session with minor gains, as Dalal Street enters a new monthly derivative (futures & options) series. Singapore Exchange Nifty futures, an early indicator of the Nifty index, rose as much as 64 points or 0.4 percent to 17,866.5 ahead of the opening bell on Dalal Street.

The Nifty50 finished the October series with a gain of 918.9 points or 5.5 percent while the Sensex added 3,346.9 points or 5.9 percent.  

About MarketBuzz: The CNBCTV18.com podcast on the big themes, vital news and key events that you should know before the opening bell, powered by CNBC-TV18 anchors. MarketBuzz is your daily morning briefing by CNBC-TV18 research analysts and anchors Sonia Shenoy, Ekta Batra, Anisha Jain, Nigel D’Souza and Mangalam Maloo to kickstart your stock market investing. Subscribe to our free podcasts on Audioboom or listen on the featured podcast page on CNBCTV18.com.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

MarketBuzz Podcast With Sonal Bhutra: Sensex and Nifty50 likely to open lower today

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Indian equity benchmarks BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50 are likely to open in the red tracking mixed global cues across global markets. Singapore Exchange Nifty futures, an early indicator of the Nifty index, fell as much as 52.5 points ahead of the opening bell on Dalal Street. Investors await more of financial results from India Inc for domestic cues.

About MarketBuzz: The CNBCTV18.com podcast on the big themes, vital news and key events that you should know before the opening bell, powered by CNBC-TV18 anchors. MarketBuzz is your daily morning briefing by CNBC-TV18 research analysts and anchors Sonia Shenoy, Ekta Batra, Anisha Jain, Nigel D’Souza and Mangalam Maloo to kickstart your stock market investing. Subscribe to our free podcasts on Audioboom or listen on the featured podcast page on CNBCTV18.com.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

MarketBuzz Podcast With Sonal Bhutra: Sensex and Nifty50 likely to make a gap-up opening today

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Indian equity benchmarks BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50 are likely to open the last trading day of the week well in the green amid strengthening global markets, after the ECB announced its biggest ever hike in the key interest rate. Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures — an early indicator of the Nifty index — rose as much as 96 points or half a percent to 17,915.5 ahead of the opening bell on Dalal Street.

About MarketBuzz: The CNBCTV18.com podcast on the big themes, vital news and key events that you should know before the opening bell, powered by CNBC-TV18 anchors. MarketBuzz is your daily morning briefing by CNBC-TV18 research analysts and anchors Sonia Shenoy, Ekta Batra, Anisha Jain, Nigel D’Souza and Mangalam Maloo to kickstart your stock market investing. Subscribe to our free podcasts on Audioboom or listen on the featured podcast page on CNBCTV18.com.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

MarketBuzz Podcast With Sonal Bhutra: Sensex and Nifty50 likely to make a gap-up opening today

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Indian equity benchmarks BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50 are likely to make a gap-up opening on Thursday tracking strength across global markets, as investors overlooked hawkish remarks made by Fed officials. Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures — an early indicator of the Nifty index — rose as much as 131.5 points or 0.7 percent to 17,762 ahead of the opening bell on Dalal Street.

Globally, the Fed’s Beige Book, which summarises the state of the world’s largest economy, said price pressures persist in the US.

About MarketBuzz: The CNBCTV18.com podcast on the big themes, vital news and key events that you should know before the opening bell, powered by CNBC-TV18 anchors. MarketBuzz is your daily morning briefing by CNBC-TV18 research analysts and anchors Sonia Shenoy, Ekta Batra, Anisha Jain, Nigel D’Souza and Mangalam Maloo to kickstart your stock market investing. Subscribe to our free podcasts on Audioboom or listen on the featured podcast page on CNBCTV18.com.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

MarketBuzz Podcast With Sonal Bhutra: Sensex and Nifty50 likely to make a gap-down opening today

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Indian equity benchmarks BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50 are likely to make a gap-down start on Wednesday amid weakness across global markets, as fears of steep hikes in COVID-era interest rates and resilience of the world economy kept investors on the back foot. Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures — an early indicator of the Nifty index — fell as much as 209 points or 1.2 percent to 17,466 ahead of the opening bell on Dalal Street.

Globally, investors awaited the release of the Fed’s Beige Book, which summarises the state of the world’s largest economy, due later in the day.

About MarketBuzz: The CNBCTV18.com podcast on the big themes, vital news and key events that you should know before the opening bell, powered by CNBC-TV18 anchors. MarketBuzz is your daily morning briefing by CNBC-TV18 research analysts and anchors Sonia Shenoy, Ekta Batra, Anisha Jain, Nigel D’Souza and Mangalam Maloo to kickstart your stock market investing. Subscribe to our free podcasts on Audioboom or listen on the featured podcast page on CNBCTV18.com.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow